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If a company is 50/50 on doing it being in the cl for the 4th year on the trott might edge it rather than us being in the europa. Perception of where the club is could be key.
I think it's likely the contract will have incentives for CL participation, NFL, number of capacity events (concerts, boxing) etc.
On on this basis £20m is achievable, though I'm sure we'd prefer to take the risk out of it.
O2 pay £12.5m a year for THE O2 - ie fewer markets.