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Realistic expectations for 2020-21?

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kendoddsdadsdogsdead

Well-Known Member
Aug 29, 2011
2,197
3,706
joey55 said:
Obviously so much depends on who we bring in. But if you analyse our defence, after the restart, the goals against was very much inline with Mourinho's 2 full seasons at Utd and is title winning standard. I think most would agree we definitely saw a difference in how we set up after the restart, so I think it's reasonable to judge that period separately from the rest of Jose's reign. In his seasons at Utd, with very average defenders, they conceded 29 and 28 goals. Since the restart we were averaging about 30 goals per season conceded. The addition of PEH should help further with that, so I think we can feel confident with that part of our set up.

The problem we have, which that I'm worried we aren't going to resolve, is creativity. If you look at our best seasons, 15/16 and 16/17 we had 17.3 and 17.6 shots per game. But last season we were averaging just 11.7 shots per game and that was still the case after the restart. Our goals scored had us looking at around 60 per season, based on the post restart period. That is nowhere near good enough for a top 3 challenge. The way Jose has us set up, defensively we are very likely to be good enough, even if we don't bring in FB's, which we probably will. So our expectations, for next season, very much depend on who we bring in to create, as we've got good finishers. The back up striker is almost a red herring, as it's distracting from the main weakness in our best starting line up. Even though Kane and Son were fit post Covid, we didn't score enough, to realistically finish in the top 3 next season and it's because we don't create enough.

If we look at out most creative players during 2015/16 and 2016/17, they were Eriksen and Lamela. Per 90 mins that created 3.2/2.7 and 3.5/2.8 chances each. But obviously Eriksen has left and Lamela hasn't been great recently. Last season our 2 most creative players were Gio and Berg with just 1.8 and 1.7. That is a huge difference. I didn't want us to sign Gio as he creativity stats weren't good enough. I was wrong, as I now think he's a brilliant player, but I still don't think he's going to create enough alone and Berg, who again doesn't create enough compared to the elite, is unlikely to be a regular starter anyway. We desperately need a top class creative player and I'm worried we aren't looking for one. All the ITK seems to be about FB's, a CB and a striker. But a closer analysis suggests, to me anyway, that they shouldn't be the priority and a creative player should be. I think that's how Poch saw it, as he wanted Bruno/Dybala, as well as Gio.

For me Grealish is the perfect signing. If, by some miracle, we could get him, I think we'd have an outside shot at the title and be real top 3 contenders. I'd love Isco as an alternative. But if we don't sign that type of player, I just don't see how we go from scoring around 60 to 75+, which we will need to finish in the top 3. Without a creative player, I think it will be a real struggle to finish in the top 4 and think 5th is most realistic. Since Bruno has come in Utd's goals per game average suggests a 70+ season and they are looking to add Sancho. Chelsea have added Werner and Ziyech, so I think they will score over 70. We've got to find away of scoring another 15 goals and a back up striker and a FB who is better than Aurier, is unlikely to achieve that. We have to properly replace Eriksen. We've got lots a good goal scorers, but we lack sufficient supply.

PS - NDombele isn't the answer, before someone says it! Could be a great CM with his talent, but he's not going to a true, elite level, creative, attacking mid, like De Bruyne etc.
Click to expand...

Grealish would be the best signing we could make this summer and I would probably rather just make that signing than three or four punts at different positions. As well as creating opportunities I think what he’d bring is the ability to wrestle back control in games. Last season there were periods where we struggled to get out of our own half and couldn’t maintain possession through the pitch. He’s best player in the league at relieving pressure, carrying the ball, letting other players get up to join attacks or even just drawing free kicks.

I just can’t see us paying what they’d want though but if we could get a decent amount for Ndombele and a couple more fringe players maybe it’s more doable or at least it should be.
 
Last edited:
E

emiley heskey

Well-Known Member
Jul 3, 2020
1,121
1,832
joey55 said:
Obviously so much depends on who we bring in. But if you analyse our defence, after the restart, the goals against was very much inline with Mourinho's 2 full seasons at Utd and is title winning standard. I think most would agree we definitely saw a difference in how we set up after the restart, so I think it's reasonable to judge that period separately from the rest of Jose's reign. In his seasons at Utd, with very average defenders, they conceded 29 and 28 goals. Since the restart we were averaging about 30 goals per season conceded. The addition of PEH should help further with that, so I think we can feel confident with that part of our set up.

The problem we have, which that I'm worried we aren't going to resolve, is creativity. If you look at our best seasons, 15/16 and 16/17 we had 17.3 and 17.6 shots per game. But last season we were averaging just 11.7 shots per game and that was still the case after the restart. Our goals scored had us looking at around 60 per season, based on the post restart period. That is nowhere near good enough for a top 3 challenge. The way Jose has us set up, defensively we are very likely to be good enough, even if we don't bring in FB's, which we probably will. So our expectations, for next season, very much depend on who we bring in to create, as we've got good finishers. The back up striker is almost a red herring, as it's distracting from the main weakness in our best starting line up. Even though Kane and Son were fit post Covid, we didn't score enough, to realistically finish in the top 3 next season and it's because we don't create enough.

If we look at out most creative players during 2015/16 and 2016/17, they were Eriksen and Lamela. Per 90 mins that created 3.2/2.7 and 3.5/2.8 chances each. But obviously Eriksen has left and Lamela hasn't been great recently. Last season our 2 most creative players were Gio and Berg with just 1.8 and 1.7. That is a huge difference. I didn't want us to sign Gio as he creativity stats weren't good enough. I was wrong, as I now think he's a brilliant player, but I still don't think he's going to create enough alone and Berg, who again doesn't create enough compared to the elite, is unlikely to be a regular starter anyway. We desperately need a top class creative player and I'm worried we aren't looking for one. All the ITK seems to be about FB's, a CB and a striker. But a closer analysis suggests, to me anyway, that they shouldn't be the priority and a creative player should be. I think that's how Poch saw it, as he wanted Bruno/Dybala, as well as Gio.

For me Grealish is the perfect signing. If, by some miracle, we could get him, I think we'd have an outside shot at the title and be real top 3 contenders. I'd love Isco as an alternative. But if we don't sign that type of player, I just don't see how we go from scoring around 60 to 75+, which we will need to finish in the top 3. Without a creative player, I think it will be a real struggle to finish in the top 4 and think 5th is most realistic. Since Bruno has come in Utd's goals per game average suggests a 70+ season and they are looking to add Sancho. Chelsea have added Werner and Ziyech, so I think they will score over 70. We've got to find away of scoring another 15 goals and a back up striker and a FB who is better than Aurier, is unlikely to achieve that. We have to properly replace Eriksen. We've got lots a good goal scorers, but we lack sufficient supply.

PS - NDombele isn't the answer, before someone says it! Could be a great CM with his talent, but he's not going to a true, elite level, creative, attacking mid, like De Bruyne etc.
Click to expand...

Man i wish we spent that 60m odd on someone like bruno or dybala who can create chance rather than two number 8 like ndombele or gio ... I know people will now tell gio supposed to be our bruno/eriksen, but gio is a completely different midfielder than pure chance creator like bruno/dybala/grealish
 
WinksyBoy

WinksyBoy

How does one change one's username....?
Jun 26, 2020
1,000
1,588
Top 3 plus a trophy. EL would be great however League Cup would suffice.
 
BringBack_leGin

BringBack_leGin

Well-Known Member
Jul 28, 2004
27,719
54,929
joey55 said:
Obviously so much depends on who we bring in. But if you analyse our defence, after the restart, the goals against was very much inline with Mourinho's 2 full seasons at Utd and is title winning standard. I think most would agree we definitely saw a difference in how we set up after the restart, so I think it's reasonable to judge that period separately from the rest of Jose's reign. In his seasons at Utd, with very average defenders, they conceded 29 and 28 goals. Since the restart we were averaging about 30 goals per season conceded. The addition of PEH should help further with that, so I think we can feel confident with that part of our set up.

The problem we have, which that I'm worried we aren't going to resolve, is creativity. If you look at our best seasons, 15/16 and 16/17 we had 17.3 and 17.6 shots per game. But last season we were averaging just 11.7 shots per game and that was still the case after the restart. Our goals scored had us looking at around 60 per season, based on the post restart period. That is nowhere near good enough for a top 3 challenge. The way Jose has us set up, defensively we are very likely to be good enough, even if we don't bring in FB's, which we probably will. So our expectations, for next season, very much depend on who we bring in to create, as we've got good finishers. The back up striker is almost a red herring, as it's distracting from the main weakness in our best starting line up. Even though Kane and Son were fit post Covid, we didn't score enough, to realistically finish in the top 3 next season and it's because we don't create enough.

If we look at out most creative players during 2015/16 and 2016/17, they were Eriksen and Lamela. Per 90 mins that created 3.2/2.7 and 3.5/2.8 chances each. But obviously Eriksen has left and Lamela hasn't been great recently. Last season our 2 most creative players were Gio and Berg with just 1.8 and 1.7. That is a huge difference. I didn't want us to sign Gio as he creativity stats weren't good enough. I was wrong, as I now think he's a brilliant player, but I still don't think he's going to create enough alone and Berg, who again doesn't create enough compared to the elite, is unlikely to be a regular starter anyway. We desperately need a top class creative player and I'm worried we aren't looking for one. All the ITK seems to be about FB's, a CB and a striker. But a closer analysis suggests, to me anyway, that they shouldn't be the priority and a creative player should be. I think that's how Poch saw it, as he wanted Bruno/Dybala, as well as Gio.

For me Grealish is the perfect signing. If, by some miracle, we could get him, I think we'd have an outside shot at the title and be real top 3 contenders. I'd love Isco as an alternative. But if we don't sign that type of player, I just don't see how we go from scoring around 60 to 75+, which we will need to finish in the top 3. Without a creative player, I think it will be a real struggle to finish in the top 4 and think 5th is most realistic. Since Bruno has come in Utd's goals per game average suggests a 70+ season and they are looking to add Sancho. Chelsea have added Werner and Ziyech, so I think they will score over 70. We've got to find away of scoring another 15 goals and a back up striker and a FB who is better than Aurier, is unlikely to achieve that. We have to properly replace Eriksen. We've got lots a good goal scorers, but we lack sufficient supply.

PS - NDombele isn't the answer, before someone says it! Could be a great CM with his talent, but he's not going to a true, elite level, creative, attacking mid, like De Bruyne etc.
Click to expand...
On the face of it I agree with your concerns, but I’d suggest that if the Højbjerg signing means we no longer see the Wimks-Sissoko pivot, we will regain the ball in better areas and then use the ball better too which in turn should allow the creative players more opportunity to create from better starting points. This should mean that we provide Kane and Son with more goalscoring opportunities as both they and the creative players will be in better circumstances to produce that opportunity than they would’ve been when relying on last seasons faulty central engine room.

Add in to that just the familiarity factor (pre lockdown Kane and Lo Celso had only really started a handful of games together at a point that the matter was still getting up to speed) and I think we’ll be better going forward generally.
 
Scouseyid

Scouseyid

Well-Known Member
Jan 27, 2020
283
1,228
We sh!thouse the league, winning every game 1 or 2 nil & finish a point above City, then win the FA Cup & UEFA Cup. Realistic expectations for me this year!
 
mark87

mark87

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2004
36,269
115,356
Scouseyid said:
We sh!thouse the league, winning every game 1 or 2 nil & finish a point above City, then win the FA Cup & UEFA Cup. Realistic expectations for me this year!
Click to expand...

How can we win every game but only finish above City by a single point? You silly billy you haven't thought this through!
 
KeithStone

KeithStone

Well-Known Member
Aug 22, 2013
194
900
1. Win a trophy
2. (DJ Khaled voice) another one
3. Finish top 4

For now, trophies are everything. There’s only so many times our top players can be asked about winning trophies and answer by saying they want to do it at spurs before we actually take that seriously. My hope is that what the Mourinho appointment was precisely for. Now we just have to support him and the team in doing that.
 
BunionBoy

BunionBoy

Well-Known Member
Jan 16, 2013
249
670
I genuinely have no clue how we are going to get on part of me thinks Jose could be gone by Christmas and the other part of me thinks if he does get our defence tiptop we will always score goals so he could accumulate a big points tally.

One thing I am sure about if we sit back against the bottom teams we should be dominating the crowds will be all over him.
 
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