2023/24 - The Race For..................

[easley91]

IF we were to get Conference or Europa League I do hope we take it seriously for a change.

 

[Trix]

Well maybe we don't chop and change in the euorpa league and actually take it seriously ?

If we are in it yes, I'll want to win it. Really hope we aren't though.

 

[aliyid]

So win the Europa Lge and get in that way. Winning it will be easier next season as there is no drop down from the champ lge.

Interesting, I didn't know this, think that's a good move. Makes sense for teams outside the big four leagues to drop into Europa but not the likes of Barca / Utd

 

[Tucker]

Well maybe we don't chop and change in the euorpa league and actually take it seriously ?

It won’t happen.

 

[southlondonyiddo]

Or we just get in the CL this year, get the much needed extra revenue and more ability to attract the players we want. We are in a strong position right now compared to others because of how we have managed FFP, that won't last long as the other clubs are adjusting their positions to align as well.

This window of opportunity won't be open for long, and we have to take advantage of our position whilst we can.

Heard this nonsense year after year after year

All it does is make ENIC/Levy more and more money

How about actually trying to win a trophy rather than just looking to qualify for the CL

Memories for supporters are about watching your club lift silverware and adding to the trophy cabinet and honours board

 

[Cambridge Spur]

I really hope we don’t fall apart for the rest of the season. Many will speak about projects but personally I won’t be happy if we don’t get Champions League. With this squad, our current position and only one game a week I will see it as a failure if we miss out now.

 

[Guntz]

I don't think it would be the worst thing in the world for us to finish in the EL places.

But given we're only playing 1 game a week and were knocked out of both domestic cups early on, I'd be disappointed if the squad doesn't have enough to finish 4th.

We also need Champions League football if we're going to entice players like Neto, as you can be sure he'll have suitors from those calibre of clubs.

 

[mattstev2000]

I think considering where we were/are in the league and the squad we have now, including the January reinforcements, being beaten to CL by Villa or Man U would be a bit of an underachievement.

 

[Misfit]

It's on the players now. Everyone knows the system, that it won't change, and that it brought them great early success.

They can either somehow dig deep enough to recapture some of that form and see it through or not.

 

[Styopa]

I think considering where we were/are in the league and the squad we have now, including the January reinforcements, being beaten to CL by Villa or Man U would be a bit of an underachievement.

I think the idea that the squad is so good that finishing outside of the top four would be an underachievement, is a classic case of moving the goalposts. Hardly anyone was saying we should be finishing top four at the beginning of the season, even before we had sold Kane.

The January signings were good but I don’t see why signing a young back up CB and a player who was a relative flop in this league before, means we are an automatically top four quality squad either.

But I do think not finishing fourth from here would be disappointing, given how well we have shown we can play and the great start we made to the season.

 

[Sp3akerboxxx]

Just listening to View from the Lane.

Apparently we are conceding 1.51 goals per game this season. No team in Premier League history has ever qualified for the Champions league conceding that many goals per game.

However, need the added caveat that I don't think 5 pl teams have ever qualified for the cl through the league

 

[RosieFTL]

Heard this nonsense year after year after year

All it does is make ENIC/Levy more and more money

How about actually trying to win a trophy rather than just looking to qualify for the CL

Memories for supporters are about watching your club lift silverware and adding to the trophy cabinet and honours board

Agree.

Also at the start of this season I didn't expect to qualify for Europe so if we do it will have exceeded my expectations.

I haven't looked at the League table yet as I don't see it as relevant until near the very end. More relevant for me is the total number of points needed based on previous final League tables. If I've kept counting correctly we have 47 points and so I make it around 5 wins needed from 13 to qualify for Europe and around 8 wins from 13 needed for top 4. I think we can achieve the former but not the latter so I think EL is where we will finish. (Of course 5th and an extra CL spot is possible but there's too many variables which may not play out until after the PL season finishes so there's no point worrying about that now).

We should then take the EL seriously but as implied money is the priority for ENIC and therefore we haven't previously which is disappointing.

 

[Westmorlandspur]

Agree.

Also at the start of this season I didn't expect to qualify for Europe so if we do it will have exceeded my expectations.

I haven't looked at the League table yet as I don't see it as relevant until near the very end. More relevant for me is the total number of points needed based on previous final League tables. If I've kept counting correctly we have 47 points and so I make it around 5 wins needed from 13 to qualify for Europe and around 8 wins from 13 needed for top 4. I think we can achieve the former but not the latter so I think EL is where we will finish. (Of course 5th and an extra CL spot is possible but there's too many variables which may not play out until after the PL season finishes so there's no point worrying about that now).

We should then take the EL seriously but as implied money is the priority for ENIC and therefore we haven't previously which is disappointing.

It’s good to have something to worry about. If we didn’t we would be in mid table mediocrity.
Low 70s usually gets 4th place. If Villa average 2 pts per game from here they get 73. As they currently don’t average 2 pts per game, would have 50 as opposed to 47. This is on the back of winning 12 home games in a row. W8 D3 L2 gives us 72 pts. I think that should be somewhere around what is needed . Nothing guaranteed though. Plenty of teams in recent years have finished 4th with less points. 66 pts on one occasion.
As it stands after last nights euro games , Italy a point ahead of Germany with us a fraction behind.
Win for Arsenal tonight puts England 2nd..
If Bayern were to be bounced out by Lazio, Lazio currently 1-0 up, that would kill the Germans off.
Another CL place for 5th in PL is certainly favourite at the moment.
Wouldn’t be a problem if Newcastle or Man Utd had dropped Into the Europa.

 

[southlondonyiddo]

Just listening to View from the Lane.

Apparently we are conceding 1.51 goals per game this season. No team in Premier League history has ever qualified for the Champions league conceding that many goals per game.

However, need the added caveat that I don't think 5 pl teams have ever qualified for the cl through the league

So Ange's style of football requires 5 spots for CL due to the fact that you can’t concede as many as we do, to finish top 4!

 

[Sp3akerboxxx]

So Ange's style of football requires 5 spots for CL due to the fact that you can’t concede as many as we do, to finish top 4!

Saw someone saying that the latest calculations mean that the PL actually won't be getting a 5th CL spot.

But I haven't read up much on this 5th CL spot thing, so don't fully understand it.

 

[Westmorlandspur]

So Ange's style of football requires 5 spots for CL due to the fact that you can’t concede as many as we do, to finish top 4!

Who cares. Play to the rules. Didn’t bother Chelsea when they won it and stopped us despite finishing 4th

 

[Westmorlandspur]

Saw someone saying that the latest calculations mean that the PL actually won't be getting a 5th CL spot.

But I haven't read up much on this 5th CL spot thing, so don't fully understand it.

kassiesa.net is the site for it. Country coefficient . We are .196 pts behind the Germans who are 2nd behind Italy. Long way to go. Win for Arsenal tonight puts us 2nd.
If Bayern get bombed out by Lazio that’s the end of the Germans, not much else apart from Leverkusen.

 

[Styopa]

In the last couple of seasons, the fourth placed team has finished with 71 points.

In fact in 7 of 9 seasons since 2014/15, finishing with 71 points has been enough to finish fourth or higher.*

Funnily enough, if we use our current points per game ratio to predict our points total from the remaining the 13 matches, we finish on 71 points.

That’s 24 points from the remaining 13 matches, which could be 8 wins, or 7 wins and 3 draws, or six wins and six draws.

*In 2020/21 Chelsea finished fourth with 67 points, and in 19/20 they finished fourth with 66 points.

*The highest fourth placed points total since the 14/15 was Liverpool with 76 points in 16/17.

 

[vegassd]

In the last couple of seasons, the fourth placed team has finished with 71 points.

In fact in 7 of 9 seasons since 2014/15, finishing with 71 points has been enough to finish fourth or higher.*

Funnily enough, if we use our current points per game ratio to predict our points total from the remaining the 13 matches, we finish on 71 points.

That’s 24 points from the remaining 13 matches, which could be 8 wins, or 7 wins and 3 draws, or six wins and six draws.

*In 2020/21 Chelsea finished fourth with 67 points, and in 19/20 they finished fourth with 66 points.

*The highest fourth placed points total since the 14/15 was Liverpool with 76 points in 16/17.

Another thing to remember is that it doesn't really matter how many points the 4th placed team got in seasons gone by - what matters more is how many points the 5th place team got. That's the total that's more important if we look at things historically.

For example, last season saw Newcastle in 4th with 71 points. Liverpool finished 5th with 68 points, so Newcastle could have scored 69 and still been 4th... arguably even 68 points themselves given a better goal difference. Same goes for the year before when we scored 71 - we could have scored two less and still got 4th above Arsenal.

The real metric of course is that we get more points than Villa and United this season!

 

[Misfit]

Another thing to remember is that it doesn't really matter how many points the 4th placed team got in seasons gone by - what matters more is how many points the 5th place team got. That's the total that's more important if we look at things historically.

For example, last season saw Newcastle in 4th with 71 points. Liverpool finished 5th with 68 points, so Newcastle could have scored 69 and still been 4th... arguably even 68 points themselves given a better goal difference. Same goes for the year before when we scored 71 - we could have scored two less and still got 4th above Arsenal.

The real metric of course is that we get more points than Villa and United this season!