Our squad is too old

[SUIYHA]

Sorry for the clickbait title. But I thought I'd actually do some analysis into this, as I'm trying to find reasons to get excited about this promising new Tottenham Hotspur side, and quite frankly, I am struggling.

Whenever we've had poor seasons before that we have been able to recover from and re-build the team after (examples listed here - https://www.spurscommunity.co.uk/index.php?threads/is-there-a-way-back-this-time.142365/) - I have always been able to take comfort in the fact that we have a young side and a few potentially top class players coming through that could improve and take us to the next level. Looking at our current squad, which dismally failed in its objectives last season, most of the players are either at or very close to their prime age wise, have declined past it, or are most likely never going to be good enough.

This isn't a universal rule, but young players tend to be hungrier, fitter, faster, more able to deal with the demands of the intensity of Premier League football. They also, clearly, have more long term value to a side as they offer more years of potential high quality football if they stay or sell-on value if they don't. ENIC have rarely gone for big name big money signings in their time here but generally speaking they have always made sure to invest in high quality young prospects to keep the machine ticking over. However, that appears to have stopped, and on current analysis I think the situation is now starting to look bleak with our current squad.

Using the data from https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/tottenham-hotspur/leistungsdaten/verein/148 - I looked into the average ages of squads based around the top 20 players ranked by minutes played in all competitions last season. All well and good talking about some great prospect in the U18s but if they're not actually ready for first team football any time soon then they're not really relevant - I want examples of players currently in and around the first team squad. Likewise if you have a 40 year old 3rd choice keeper, that's also not really relevant. What I've found is that our squad generally speaking is older than many of our rivals - meaning that whilst they may well get better next season, unless we act quickly, we may well get worse.

• Arsenal - Average 25.75, Median 26
• Chelsea - Average 25.9, Median 26
• Man Utd - Average 25.95, Median 25.5
• Leicester - Average 26.7, Median 25
• Tottenham - Average 27.25, Median 27.5

Even before we start looking at potential young signings coming into their squads (Werner, Havertz, Gabriel etc), on the basis of this it would appear that our existing players are less likely to improve year on year than theirs. The two outliers to this theory are of course the Premier League's top two, who read as follows:

• Liverpool - Average 27.5, Median 28
• Man City - Average 27.95, Median 26.5

There are three points to consider here. Firstly, that they are packed full of world class players across each position, so that even if some do decline slightly or spend more time injured, there are still world class players throughout. Secondly, I do feel both sides have peaked, in 2019 both felt invincible whereas they have each started to show signs of weakness in 2020 - and without good quality signings this window I expect they would both decline further next season. But lastly, because the cores of the squads have been together for a few years in both cases. If we are to go back to the 2017/18 season when the current squads for both teams really started to take shape (Silva, Walker, Ederson and Laporte joining Man City and then Salah, Van Dijk, Robertson and Alexander-Arnold coming into the Liverpool side), the make-up looks like this:

• Liverpool - Average 24.75, Median 25
• Man City - Average 25.85, Median 26

For historical comparison purposes, looking at some of our old squads when we embarked on successful "new era" seasons, the averages were as follows:

• 2005-06 - Average 24.4, Median 24
• 2009-10 - Average 24.55, Median 24
• 2015-16 - Average 23.8, Median 23.5

But it's not about averages I hear you cry. It's about how good those select few individuals are. We can never replace all of our players at the same time, but if we've got a few stars that come through then we can build the team around them. Sadly, I'm struggling to see it. If you look at Chelsea - they have the likes of Pulisic, Abraham, Mount, Hudson-Odoi, James, Gilmour and Tomori (if he stays), all under the age of 23. If you were to look at our current crop of youngsters, how many would you rate as potentially world class? People expect big things of Tanganga but he's still very raw, and whilst Bergwijn looked promising in flashes (incidentally he did NOT count as one of our top 20 players in minutes played last season), do you think Man Utd would swap him for any of Greenwood, Rashford or Martial who are all of a similar age bracket? Arsenal have a habit of hyping up young players well beyond their actual abilities, but I look at them building a young side with Martinelli, Saka, Tierney, Willock, Nelson, Nketiah etc and can't help but worry that the likely scenario is that some of them become pretty damn good. Skipp and Parrott might also be "highly rated", but neither deemed good enough for the first team this season and neither able to even find a Premier League club willing to take them on loan. Clarke, Sessegnon, Whiteman...all seem miles off the first team, with Foyth and Carter-Vickers seemingly about to be discarded.

We then find ourselves talking about the likes of Alli, Sanchez and Winks as young players as they are still "only" 24, even though they've been around for ages. They could still improve, but it feels like none of them are going to reach the potential we thought they had in 2017. I'd hope Lo Celso and Ndombele (if he ever gets picked) would improve in their second seasons in England. But beyond that our situation looks bleak to be honest. If the likes of Kane, Son and Lucas start to decline now that they've hit that mystical 27/28 age bracket, just like Vertonghen, Dembele, Rose, Alderweireld and Eriksen did, then who is going to step up to the mantle and take their place? Where are the young Ledley Kings, Aaron Lennons, Michael Dawsons, Tom Huddlestones, Gareth Bales, Danny Roses, Kyle Walkers, Harry Kanes and Dele Allis that you can see coming through the ranks to become future superstars that we can build our team around for the next few years? Are we planning on signing any potentially world class youngsters like Eriksen, Modric or Son, or are we only looking at experienced players that can "do a job" like Hojbjerg, or come in as no more than backup like Hart or Wilson?

We once went over two years between Adebayor and Llorente without fielding a single outfield player over the age of 30. But gone are the days where I think of Spurs as an upcoming young side - now it feels we're past our prime, and even at their peak then players like Sissoko, Davies, Aurier and Lamela were never exactly world class. Our squad looks light on numbers with an excess number of games coming up likely to take a battering on their ageing bodies, and quite frankly, things do not look good. Does anyone have a counterpoint to this, and a reason to feel optimistic about the future?

 

[McFlash]

I think we've got a pretty nice balance between youth and experience.
How up to date are your figures? Do the averages take in to account that we may well have the likes of Cirkin and White in the squad this year?

 

[Laboog]

I completely understand your concern but the way I am looking at it is a few different ways. First, for years under Poch we had the youngest average age or close to it in the Premier League in terms of the starting XI. What did that get us? Fans mocking us with a "New trophy for Spurs" meme just like our Net Spend. Age means nothing if players can still produce. The second, Jose works well with older players. He has shown it in the past and it's not like we have a team of old beaten down players like Demebele was (still miss him though). Our team has core of players still with a lot left in the tank and are still hungry for a trophy. If anything, I would say our core are hungrier than young players because we have been so close and failed over and over again.

For your question on where is the good youth coming through. This is only my opinion and I am sure a lot of people will disagree, but I put a very large part of the blame on Poch. For all the good he did bringing youth into the first team when he started at Spurs, he hurt a lot of good prospects by failing to loan them out. Walker-Peters, Skipp, Parrott, are just recent players who should have been loaned a few years ago. Now KWP is sold and the other two are finally going out on loan.

I'm not going to question Poch's way of handling youth because he was the manager and had his own method but my preference would have been a lot more players going out on loan under Poch instead of staying back to work on the U-23's.

The other issue was that our squad was so young for a 3-4 year window, it hurts other young players because they cannot move up. Was a youth striker going to replace Kane? A young midfielder come in for Winks, Eriksen, or Alli? A young CB replacing Jan or Toby? No, those options were not going to happen during our best years under Poch so it was a trickle down effect that hurt other young players.

I am very optimistic for a trophy this season under Jose and I think all Spurs fans should be. We have a manager who knows how to win trophies and a very good team. If Kane stays healthy, I feel more confident for a trophy this season than I have in the past 2-4 seasons when Poch only really aimed for the big 2 trophies.

 

[Hakkz]

Every now and then the squad gets older. Generally it's the GK and backline that are effecting the average in that sense. In a season or two we will see older players leaving and being replaced by younger players. As is always the case.

I think the average age of the squad is only relevant depending on the style of football. If you have high press football involving everyone (including a sweeper keeper) then yes, youth and energy is relevant.

 

[spids]

I could not disagree more with the OP. I have been concerned that our squad is too young for years. The battle of the bridge - we could have done with a couple of wizened old heads to steer us through an emotional game. The CL final - Liverpool were there for the taking, but we had no experienced winners in the team. I want more experience and more players in their peak years 26-32.

We do have few old 'uns ....
Lloris 33 (great age for a keeper)
Toby 31
Sissoko 31

But finally our young players are maturing into their peak years, the years where really good players win things....
Son 28
Moura 28
Lamela 28
Kane 27
Davies 27
Dier 26
Hjobjerg 25

Supported by a raft of very talented players who in the next two years will mature and get better ....
Wnks 24
Dele 24
Lo Celso 24
Sanchez 24
Ndombele 23
Bergwijn 22
Foyth 22
Sessegnon 20

And with academy prospects to come off the conveyor belt...
Parrot 18
Skipp 19
Cirkin 18

There is a reason Mourinho likes players who are 27+, he wants mature players who are tactically intelligent and ready to win things.

In a perfect world we would be able to replace the older outfield players (Toby and Sissoko) with replacements entering in their peak years, like Skriniar (25) and Brozovic (27) from Inter Milan, and if we did that I would be really excited!

 

[SecretLemonadeDrinker]

Your post is too long!








But seriously, no........our squad is far from being too old. For starters, I'm not sure how you've arrived at your average figure. Using the same source - and omitting goalkeepers (because, in terms of age, they are judged very differently); those who have left, either permanently or on loan; and those who are very unlikely to feature (most of the recent academy graduates) - I get an average of 24.5. Which is actually quite young.

Besides, there is an all too prevalent myth these days that players who are in their late 20's are past it. Not so long ago, that used to be considered a player's prime.

Genuinely, I don't think we have anything to worry about in this regard.

 

[Dannyspur]

You'll never win anything with kids.

 

[SUIYHA]

I think we've got a pretty nice balance between youth and experience.
How up to date are your figures? Do the averages take in to account that we may well have the likes of Cirkin and White in the squad this year?

I took it from top 20 players based on minutes played last season. Players like Cirkin, Skipp, Parrott, Sessegnon etc might well be in the squad, but if the manager doesn't pick them then they're not relevant, and quite frankly Mourinho's record of promoting youth over established first team players is practically non-existent. Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd etc all have a lot of talented young players under the age of 23 that have now broken into their first teams, we barely have any.

The overall point is to think of it this way. What if Kane or Son start to decline this season? Who do you see in the squad ready to step up and get better to negate the difference?

 

[SUIYHA]

Supported by a raft of very talented players who in the next two years will mature and get better ....
Wnks 24
Dele 24
Lo Celso 24
Sanchez 24
Ndombele 23
Bergwijn 22
Foyth 22

And with academy prospects to come off the conveyor belt...
Parrot 18
Skipp 19
Cirkin 18

The majority of the players you have listed as expected to get better over the next two years have either spent the last few years stagnating, if not having our manager actively look to get rid of them. Only Bergwijn and Lo Celso could really say they had successful seasons last year, and even those two left a lot to be desired - they were miles off say Fernandes and Rashford, or Mount and Pulisic who are of similar age brackets. From the academy prospects - two of them have just been loaned out to lower league clubs - unlikely to have an impact in our first team any time soon if ever.

 

[McFlash]

I took it from top 20 players based on minutes played last season. Players like Cirkin, Skipp, Parrott, Sessegnon etc might well be in the squad, but if the manager doesn't pick them then they're not relevant, and quite frankly Mourinho's record of promoting youth over established first team players is practically non-existent. Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd etc all have a lot of talented young players under the age of 23 that have now broken into their first teams, we barely have any.

The overall point is to think of it this way. What if Kane or Son start to decline this season? Who do you see in the squad ready to step up and get better to negate the difference?

But Son and Kane are only what, 27?
I agree that we need some rotation options for them but I don't think they'll decline just yet.
There are only so many squad positions available and we can't have succession plans and for everyone at the same time.
We do have a good few youth prospects coming through though, but you can't expect a full teams worth of players to come out of every intake. I'd say out of each youth year, we'd be lucky to produce 2 first teamers, very lucky.

 

[hellava_tough]

If I was going to create a thread like this, I would have waited until the transfer window closed.

 

[Frozen_Waffles]

I really don't think this is too much of a problem, Toby and Sissoko are the only 30+ outfield players and at the end of last season you could argue that Toby wasn't first team and you could also argue with Pierre, Sissoko will be benched.

So our outfield players are not really a problem. Lamela Will probably be sold, which leaves son and Lucas as the only first team players 28 and over.

We have gaps in our squad but that's a different problem.

In an ideal world Skipp will come back from loan and replace Sissoko as back up and foyth/Tanganga will eventually take Toby's spot as back up CB.

So from an age perspective the only position we need to look at is on the wing. We signed Bergwijn in January and maybe one more is needed in the near future.

Not something to be too worried about. I am much more worried about going into the season with no right backs or a backup to Harry.

 

[spids]

You'll never win anything with kids.

That infamous United team from 95/96 had some very experienced players in their team, especially in the spine.

Schmeichel
Bruce
Pallister
Irwin
Keane
McClair
Cantona

...and whilst Giggs was 23 that year he already had 5 years in the first team.

 

[Neon_Knight_]

@SUIYHA
I know this isn't what you mean, but it almost sounds like you wants us to sell anyone who isn't a world beater by the age of 24 and replace key players as soon as they reach their peak years (outfield - late 20s, GK - early 30s).

You seem to be overlooking the fact that we've literally just released our oldest outfield player (Jan - 33) and our oldest keeper (Vorm - 36), plus Rose (30) is almost certainly on his way out and Eriksen (28 - above squad average) left mid-season. I know we've just signed 33 year old Hart, but he's 3 years younger than the player he replaced.

We have continued to predominantly sign young players who can contribute to the first team in the first instance and have the potential to develop into key players for years to come. Here's a rundown of our signings over the last 3 years (age at time of signing):
Hart (33), Hojbjerg (25), Gedson (21), Bergwijn (22), Lo Celso (23), Ndombele (22), Sessegnon (19), Clarke (18), Sanchez (21), Foyth (19), Gazzaniga (25), Aurier (24), Moura (25), Llorente (32).

Our last 14 signings had an average age of 23.5. Llorente and Hart (the only players who didn't reduce the average age of the squad) making a lot of sense - short-term signings, proven in the PL, CL and at international level, who are happy to sit on the bench and will have a positive impact on the squad (experience / leadership / morale).
Ignoring the outliers from our general transfer strategy (Hart & Llorente, plus young Clarke who hasn't been involved with the first team) and the average is down to 22.4.

I think the primary reason for the age of our squad increasing in recent years is that we managed to hang on to the young players that came good, rather than selling them just as they're starting to peak. In the past, our best players left before they reached their peak / could be considered old (Bale, Modric, Carrick etc.). I would argue that our squad was too young to win titles for most of Poch's reign.

Winks (24), Dier (26) and Alli (24) seem like they've been around for years, but that's because they each made significant impact at a very young age (which they currently seem to get little credit for on SC), and in no way (at least that I can see) does this evidence that they've reached their ceilings. I think it's fair to say they have all been played out of position for significant spells, after initially showing promise in their primary position. In playing out of position, they've been required to shoulder a lot of responsibility to plug the team's weaknesses (on top of being outside of their comfort zone), while more experienced members of the squad have had the advantage of playing within their comfort zone (yet in some cases failed to outshine or take more responsibility than any of these three). Winks (CM - criticised for not being a defensive destroyer) and Dier (CB - criticised for not passing like a play-maker) have been played out of position at CDM for significant spells. Alli has often been needed in a deeper CM role, but has been most effective playing as a no.10 (more of a second striker than an AM). With it looking likely that they'll now be back in their best / preferred positions, under a world class manager, I think it's absolutely believable that they can improve.

Kane (27), Lloris (33), Son (28), Moura (28), Toby (31) & Davies (27) are all dependable and fundamental members of the squad. I don't think it would make sense to consider selling any of them for a while yet - even if a younger player manages to displace them, they'd be very handy rotation players who can contribute experience and leadership to the squad.
Although Toby is creeping towards retirement age, I think we need to keep him around to support the development of Dier and Sanchez (and any other CB) - unless we go out and sign another highly experienced top-level CB.

Sissoko (31) and Lamela (28) would be the most logical players for us to consider moving on - although I like them both.
Sissoko could well get a lot of playing time this season, as he can cover CM and CDM (although not suited to a disciplined CDM role, he's defensively our best option if Hojbjerg is injured and Dier is busy at CB). If we sign another CM (not an AM who can play CM) or Winks and Ndombele start the season strongly, I wouldn't be too upset to see him go in October / January.
Lamela is really useful coming off the bench when we're hanging on to a narrow lead (intense pressing and effective at running the clock down). He's probably not going to improve now though and we have more depth in the AM / wing positions than anywhere else.

 

[C0YS]

26-28 is the absolute ideal average age for winning sides.

Time and time again that is shown to be the case and only one team has ever won the PL with an average age of less than 25. Our teams were young, because we were trying to buy players we could develop into top players, that's happened. So we just kept them.

Also how you count age for squads is quite difficult, but we were listed as joint 11th in the league in this chart

The 20 Premier League clubs ranked by the average age of their squads - Planet Football

Pundits often say if you're good enough you're old enough - but which Premier League teams have the youngest squads on average?

www.planetfootball.com

Average age can be very misleading. A team isn't very big, only around 25 players, a few players can make a significant change to that number. The important thing is the ability to see a transition, where the team might be going. Not average age.. The fact that we could realistically line up like this, and this being a team that would be possible with injuries etc and not just a reserve match.

Gazzaninga
(28)
Tanganga Dier Sanchez Sessegnon
(21) (26) (24) (20)
Winks N'dombele
(24) (23)
Dele Lo Celso Bergwijn
(24) (24) (22)
Kane
(27)​

with an average age of 23.9, means I'm not worried about the future. Yes we have a few older players, Hugo and Toby mostly. But most are players are under 28. It's true that this team will need refreshing, but its got a long way to run yet.

 

[RichieS]

I want to see box plots for each of the squads involved in the comparison.

But seriously - great effort! I may not agree with the overall point, but some serious time and thought went into the OP.

 

[DogsOfWar]

The average age is only an issue if you have a lot of 30+ players that could all start going downhill.

Ours is only high as we have a very tightly grouped bunch between 24 and 28 with three 30+ year-olds pushing it up.

And as has already been mentioned Lloris doesn't matter, and Sissoko and Toby are likely to see a lot fewer minutes this year.

With Cirkin, Tanganga, Foyth, Sess, Clarke, Skipp, Bergwijn, and Parrott hopefully starting to kick on a new system of loans, lots of first X1 games, and Mourinho's coaching, that's almost another team being developed.

We might still have a few issues in our squad but age isn't one of them.

 

[Shadydan]

I read the OP and everything you've bought up regarding us compared to our rivals is spun into a negative worst case scenario, why is that?

Also Liverpool and Man City having a higher average aged squad than us is telling, seeing as we've had many young squads and won f-all yet those two teams have experience to go with youth and they've been amongst the best two teams in the country and Europe over the past couple of season tells you all you need to know and what we need to do to get there.

 

[RikkiRocket]

I blame joe Hart. He’s a pensioner.

 

[DiVaio]

I want to see box plots for each of the squads involved in the comparison.

But seriously - great effort! I may not agree with the overall point, but some serious time and thought went into the OP.

We are completely ok