tototoner
Staying Alert
- Mar 21, 2004
- 29,402
- 34,111
I didn't create the thread
Race for the EPL Title 2013-2014
- Thread starter dsmoove
- Start date
I didn't create the thread
Ok- but I still don't get your point when questioning my statement that we're not in the title race we're in the race for fourth.
Ok, I've done all the calculations and I've concluded what needs to be done to get top 4:
By using logic sense, we end up behind Liverpool every time.
Therefore we must abandon logic and rational thinking, but still be realistic:
Scenario 1:
To get top 4 we need a minimum of 70 points: We are on the road to 69-70 so there exist a possibility by just keeping our current form. Approxmately 2 points per game. This would however mean that Liverpool totally choke, and United don't get a good run of form. Liverpool are currently on track to 74-75 points, so it's quite unlikely they would get lower than 70 points.
Scenario 2:
We would realistically need 72-73 points to have a chance of getting 4th. One way to do it is to beat the bottom half teams: Thats 8 matches and 24 points - meaning we would only need 4-6 points from the top half teams (6 matches). Thats not very realistic either - You never win all matches you're supposed to. Not we, not Liverpool.
Scenario 3:
This is my conclusion of how we could get 4th, and would probably be our only realistic possibility:
We have to get a "normal" amount of points against the weak sides - about 18-20 points. In addition we also need to step up our game against the good sides. We cannot lose at Anfield - That would be a dealbreaker, and more importantly - we need to win at least 3 matches and hopefully a draw or two.
These matches includes:
Everton (home)
Newcastle (away)
Chelsea (away)
Arsenal (home)
Southampton (home)
Liverpool (away)
The "easy" way to do it is to beat Everton, Newcastle and Southampton, and then a draw against Liverpool.
Our next two games will therefore be somewhat of season-deciders. I would say that we need at least 3 points from our next 2 games to still be in the hunt. 6 points from the next two games and we would probably be favourites for 4th!
I would say our chance is about 20 % atm. The good thing is that it's far from impossible and we would truly deserve it in the end if do it.
COYS!
By using logic sense, we end up behind Liverpool every time.
Therefore we must abandon logic and rational thinking, but still be realistic:
Scenario 1:
To get top 4 we need a minimum of 70 points: We are on the road to 69-70 so there exist a possibility by just keeping our current form. Approxmately 2 points per game. This would however mean that Liverpool totally choke, and United don't get a good run of form. Liverpool are currently on track to 74-75 points, so it's quite unlikely they would get lower than 70 points.
Scenario 2:
We would realistically need 72-73 points to have a chance of getting 4th. One way to do it is to beat the bottom half teams: Thats 8 matches and 24 points - meaning we would only need 4-6 points from the top half teams (6 matches). Thats not very realistic either - You never win all matches you're supposed to. Not we, not Liverpool.
Scenario 3:
This is my conclusion of how we could get 4th, and would probably be our only realistic possibility:
We have to get a "normal" amount of points against the weak sides - about 18-20 points. In addition we also need to step up our game against the good sides. We cannot lose at Anfield - That would be a dealbreaker, and more importantly - we need to win at least 3 matches and hopefully a draw or two.
These matches includes:
Everton (home)
Newcastle (away)
Chelsea (away)
Arsenal (home)
Southampton (home)
Liverpool (away)
The "easy" way to do it is to beat Everton, Newcastle and Southampton, and then a draw against Liverpool.
Our next two games will therefore be somewhat of season-deciders. I would say that we need at least 3 points from our next 2 games to still be in the hunt. 6 points from the next two games and we would probably be favourites for 4th!
I would say our chance is about 20 % atm. The good thing is that it's far from impossible and we would truly deserve it in the end if do it.
COYS!
SlunkSoma
Like dogs bright
- Oct 5, 2004
- 3,941
- 3,490
I would like to see the ppg rate of fluctuation over the season, for all teams - every season. That would give a good indication if teams can 'go on a run' or if all in all the final ppg is pretty close to their average throughout the season.
thinktank
Hmmm...
- Sep 28, 2004
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Kingstheman
No longer BSoDL
- Mar 13, 2006
- 5,831
- 2,991
Lots of sendings off and knocks. 0 0.
Teddy Klinsmann
Well-Known Member
- Aug 5, 2008
- 7,355
- 18,331
We'll struggle to cat h Liverpool if they continue to play like they've done in first 16 minutes.
Kingstheman
No longer BSoDL
- Mar 13, 2006
- 5,831
- 2,991
Tempted. To... Rate.... WTF!? Temptation too... Much... Aaaaarrrrrggggghhhhh!!!!!
We're nowhere near this Liverpool side
...explain yourself!
Kingstheman
No longer BSoDL
- Mar 13, 2006
- 5,831
- 2,991
Hoping for a Liverpool win against a team we may lose to...
JUSTINSIGNAL
Well-Known Member
- Jul 10, 2008
- 16,020
- 48,713
Bye bye fourth
Wheeler Dealer
Well-Known Member
- Jul 29, 2011
- 6,935
- 12,452
4th is looking a challenge now.. FFS The only time I want to see the Arse do well they concede 4 in 20 minutes
L-man
Misplaced pass from Dier
- Dec 31, 2008
- 9,979
- 51,367
Say one win from Newcastle/ Everton and one loss. We could/ should get wins Norwich, Cardiff, Southampton, Sunderland, WBA, Fulham, West Ham and Villa.
Then the more tricky fixtures; Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Stoke away. Being pessimistic you could say two points.
This would see us get 29 points from 14 remaining games finishing on 76 points which should get us top four. Even two draws in those winnable games would drop us to 72 points which saw us get the record amount of points without CL football
Obviously football doesn't work like this and there's lots of twists and turns to happen but it's far from over. Not bad from a team that's been supposedly in crisis this season changing our manager and having two record signings completely underperforming. If Lamela and Soldado were to come good, we could really see a decent push for the top four in the final third of the season and to be honest I'd rather see Spurs coming in from behind (ooo errr) than leading the pack like we have done the last two seasons.
RichieS
Well-Known Member
- Dec 23, 2004
- 11,916
- 16,436
Weatherman
Active Member
- Jul 26, 2012
- 46
- 116
Liverpool drew Villa at home, smashed Everton, and then went on to draw West Brom. They're hardly unbeatable and they'll continue to drop points.
