Takeover talk

Trix · Mar 22, 2017

Everlasting Seconds said:
The cliché "Everything has a price" is never trurer than for football transactions. Given the very abnormal USD - GBP exchange rate, and if GBP is the main currency for ENIC (which I don't know if it is), but if it is, selling these days to an American buyer is from a business perspective a no brainer. They will have made such a profit in GBP that they would require a new bank account, since the old one would fill up.

The Premier league is only going from strength to strength. There is a reason why so many foreign business men/ investment companies are throwing money at clubs, and it isn't with a view to sell. It is future merchandising and TV rights where the big money lies.

Everlasting Seconds · Mar 22, 2017

Trix said:
The Premier league is only going from strength to strength. There is a reason why so many foreign business men/ investment companies are throwing money at clubs, and it isn't with a view to sell. It is future merchandising and TV rights where the big money lies.

But that is also the foundation for the possible profit for ENIC, isn't it. The present market value is a product of those future income possibilities. And the difference between ENIC and more recent investors is that few of the latter are headed by an 80-year old who has already been in the PL investing business for one and a half decade. Hence the perspective of an existing long time investor (possibility of realising big profits now) vs. a new investor entering the PL investing business (possibility of future profit) are widely different.

Look, I'm certainly not saying that I know they will sell, but I'm saying that for the entire ENIC ownership, selling, and most specifically to an American, has never looked like a better idea.

Trix · Mar 22, 2017

Everlasting Seconds said:
But that is also the foundation for the possible profit for ENIC, isn't it. The present market value is a product of those future income possibilities. And the difference between ENIC and more recent investors is that few of the latter are headed by an 80-year old who has already been in the PL investing business for one and a half decade. Hence the perspective of an existing long time investor (possibility of realising big profits now) vs. a new investor entering the PL investing business (possibility of future profit) are widely different.

Look, I'm certainly not saying that I know they will sell, but I'm saying that for the entire ENIC ownership, selling, and most specifically to an American, has never looked like a better idea.

I have no idea what JL intentions are, but for the last couple of years all I have heard regarding the DL side of things he has no intention of selling(I have said this constantly). I know as the majority share holder JL calls all the shots but as you say he is 80 years old and with his portfolio, the money he'd get for the club is pretty much irrelevant. I think at one time it really suited some fans to want Enic to sell up and as such they used the "he's a business man of course he'll sell" "look at what they did with Rangers and Slavia" etc. Well the difference here is that they are Spurs fans and their kids are Spurs fans.

widmerpool · Mar 22, 2017

Does anyone know anything about Vivienne Lewis, who runs Tavistock and is the heir presumptive to her dad's empire?

A lot hinges on whether she has any interest in football.

Everlasting Seconds · Mar 22, 2017

Trix said:
I have no idea what JL intentions are, but for the last couple of years all I have heard regarding the DL side of things he has no intention of selling(I have said this constantly). I know as the majority share holder JL calls all the shots but as you say he is 80 years old and with his portfolio, the money he'd get for the club is pretty much irrelevant. I think at one time it really suited some fans to want Enic to sell up and as such they used the "he's a business man of course he'll sell" "look at what they did with Rangers and Slavia" etc. Well the difference here is that they are Spurs fans and their kids are Spurs fans.

Yeah, I agree with that by and large. I think it's highly likely that any possible deal would include Levy staying on both in his current executive role and turning his indirect ownership into an direct or a reshaped indirect one, of sorts. I've thought that for a long time, but it's really me only speculating. Keep in mind I've actually never wanted ENIC or Levy out in the first place, and in a take-over scenario I'd prefer for Levy to continue as is.

Everlasting Seconds · Mar 22, 2017

widmerpool said:
Does anyone know anything about Vivienne Lewis, who runs Tavistock and is the heir presumptive to her dad's empire?

A lot hinges on whether she has any interest in football.

I've heard/read the entire range of speculations through the years, fans have speculated about her for a long time already, from her being a die-hard Spurs fan and with football executive aspirations to not really being that much bothered.

phil · Mar 22, 2017

dovahkiin said:
time to ressurect this thread. how would you feel about cain hoy now?
slim shaney on ftl: Cain hoy
Anyone heard any more about them buying us?
A friend of mine knows someone who knows someone who says that a deal is close
To be taken with a pinch of salt
1.2 bn

£1.2bn is 3 times more than the club is valued on AssetMatch and about 15 times more than the club was valued at the time it was de-listed. I would love the story to be true as it would value my £625 investment at over £15k, but the price is completely unrealistic. If ENIC did sell, I would guess that the price would be around £600m

Probably unrelated, but I received yet another call last week (it's about the 4th or 5th call) asking if I wanted to sell my shares.

widmerpool · Mar 22, 2017

Everlasting Seconds said:
I've heard/read the entire range of speculations through the years, fans have speculated about her for a long time already, from her being a die-hard Spurs fan and with football executive aspirations to not really being that much bothered.

Thanks.

That suggests that she isn't bothered. Fans are optimists, by and large. And if she was minded to kiss chicken badges, there would be some hard supporting evidence.

mpickard2087 · Mar 22, 2017

widmerpool said:
Does anyone know anything about Vivienne Lewis, who runs Tavistock and is the heir presumptive to her dad's empire?

A lot hinges on whether she has any interest in football.

I don't think it does, Lewis Snr. from what I gather isn't really much more than a casual fan and has many other interests. Its a valuable piece of the portfolio though, you don't have to be mad for it to recognise that and keep hold of it.

widmerpool · Mar 22, 2017

mpickard2087 said:
I don't think it does, Lewis Snr. from what I gather isn't really much more than a casual fan and has many other interests. Its a valuable piece of the portfolio though, you don't have to be mad for it to recognise that and keep hold of it.

Good point.

Put differently: Lewis is - presumably - reasonably bullish about the future global value of the EPL and English club brands. That means he's assuming that alternative competitions, and clubs in US and China, won't replace them in global affections any time soon. It also means that he's optimistic about the future ability of media firms to monetise premium digital content. He doesn't think we're yet at peak EPL.

The issue is whether Lewis Jnr feels similarly. I wouldn't. If I owned an EPL club right now I'd flog it.

michaelden · Mar 22, 2017

phil said:
£1.2bn is 3 times more than the club is valued on AssetMatch and about 15 times more than the club was valued at the time it was de-listed. I would love the story to be true as it would value my £625 investment at over £15k, but the price is completely unrealistic. If ENIC did sell, I would guess that the price would be around £600m

Probably unrelated, but I received yet another call last week (it's about the 4th or 5th call) asking if I wanted to sell my shares.

based on the figures above, how much were you offered? It would go a long way to showing a market value for the club

Everlasting Seconds · Mar 22, 2017

michaelden said:
based on the figures above, how much were you offered? It would go a long way to showing a market value for the club

It could or it couldn't. I'm not Spurs share owner my self, but I've noticed that several "offers" are for the price that was the case in the last trade before Tottenham was taken off the public market.

Trix · Mar 22, 2017

widmerpool said:
Good point.

Put differently: Lewis is - presumably - reasonably bullish about the future global value of the EPL and English club brands. That means he's assuming that alternative competitions, and clubs in US and China, won't replace them in global affections any time soon. It also means that he's optimistic about the future ability of media firms to monetise premium digital content. He doesn't think we're yet at peak EPL.

The issue is whether Lewis Jnr feels similarly. I wouldn't. If I owned an EPL club right now I'd flog it.

Why would you sell it? And would that decision be the same if you already had billions in the bank besides the football club.

widmerpool · Mar 22, 2017

Trix said:
Why would you sell it? And would that decision be the same if you already had billions in the bank besides the football club.

Because I'm bearish on all the stuff I listed above. I reckon we're in an EPL bubble and the fundamentals are shaky. Not sure how loaded Lewis is, but I wouldn't want more than a few percent of my assets in this sector. So the additional billions would have to be quite plentiful.

yankspurs · Mar 22, 2017

Look at this site: cainhoyenterprises.com

They've invested in highly valued development projects seemingly all over London. They've won property and residential financiers of the year awards the last few years. There is a highy valued re development project going on in the Tottenham area that the club is spearheading. Maken sense for their to be investment discussions but it likely isnt for a takeover at this time. Think this discussion could be better off moving to the new stadium thread.

I mentioned this last night, people!

danielneeds · Mar 22, 2017

widmerpool said:
Because I'm bearish on all the stuff I listed above. I reckon we're in an EPL bubble and the fundamentals are shaky. Not sure how loaded Lewis is, but I wouldn't want more than a few percent of my assets in this sector. So the additional billions would have to be quite plentiful.

I'm no financial expert - but I think the true value of the PL and the clubs hasn't even been touched yet. They are only scratching the surface of the future and what they can be as creators of marketable content.

Trix · Mar 22, 2017

widmerpool said:
Because I'm bearish on all the stuff I listed above. I reckon we're in an EPL bubble and the fundamentals are shaky. Not sure how loaded Lewis is, but I wouldn't want more than a few percent of my assets in this sector. So the additional billions would have to be quite plentiful.

Well he is the 4th richest man in Britain according to the Independent. Whatever happens at Spurs, he won't be shopping at Aldi.

widmerpool · Mar 22, 2017

Trix said:
Well he is the 4th richest man in Britain according to the Independent. Whatever happens at Spurs, he won't be shopping at Aldi.

He bought M&B pubs, which are as declasse as you like, so perhaps Aldi is next on his list.

JUSTINSIGNAL · Mar 22, 2017

Trix said:
Well the difference here is that they are Spurs fans and their kids are Spurs fans.

This is absolutely key. It's also worth noting when Levy gets bashed for not splashing the cash - the fact is he's a big spurs fan and i'm sure he wants success for the club as much as every other fan.

widmerpool · Mar 22, 2017

danielneeds said:
I'm no financial expert - but I think the true value of the PL and the clubs hasn't even been touched yet. They are only scratching the surface of the future and what they can be as creators of marketable content.

Let's bump in 20 years time and see. Either the club will be earning a fortune from people paying to be Chirpy through immersive VR, or Spurs will be an also-ran next to the Chinese and Brazilian giants of the All-Star Global League, or we'll be hunting each other through the ruins of London, for food. Whichever way, I'm sure SC will survive.

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