2023/24 - The Race For..................

WiganSpur · Mar 11, 2024

ItsBoris said:
That would be the probability of us finishing 5th or higher AND england getting 5 spots. You have to add the probability that England doesn't get 5 spots and we come 4th, which is about 16%, which is how I get 80% probability total

Yep, got you! Was just about to edit my post. Wow that is likely indeed.

ItsBoris · Mar 11, 2024

LeSoupeKitchen said:
I wasn't sure where to put this so I'll just say that we need more help from the referees (or to go down in the box more easily) to secure top 4:

View attachment 138584

We're an outlier to the expected trend. I'm sure there are other factors that contribute.

lol pretty strong positive correlation except for us...

LeSoupeKitchen · Mar 11, 2024

ItsBoris said:
lol pretty strong positive correlation except for us...

We're the only team with more touches in the opp box than conceded in our own to have conceded more penalties than we've won.

That makes it even more crazy that we've conceded 6 times more penalties than we've won!

fishhhandaricecake · Mar 12, 2024

Mr Pink said:
Liverpool away is the hardest of the lot imo.

As the crowd are simly the most up for it which translates to both sets of players.

Chelsea away is hardest imo as they have the hex over us followed imo by Arsenal home (I just see us struggling in that one).

I think we will do ok against City home mabye a draw and lpool away I fancy us for a big season defining win up there our first one in many a year.

Mr Pink · Mar 12, 2024

fishhhandaricecake said:
Chelsea away is hardest imo as they have the hex over us followed imo by Arsenal home (I just see us struggling in that one).

I think we will do ok against City home mabye a draw and lpool away I fancy us for a big season defining win up there our first one in many a year.

Im the other way round.

I think we'll do Chelsea, very confident, despite them being up for it.

This is definitely the biggest gap between the sides ive known in a long time, in our favour.

We'll keep our heads and beat them this time.

Anfield will be a cauldron, as title race and revenge for earlier in the season.

Arsenal at home I think we'll win if virtually full strength. The stadium will be bouncing.

CookieYiddo · Mar 12, 2024

We Draw at Chelsea, we draw at Anfield and we win at Home to Arse

Misfit · Mar 12, 2024

CookieYiddo said:
We Draw at Chelsea, we draw at Anfield and we win at Home to Arse

I'd snap your arm off for that set of results.

fishhhandaricecake · Mar 12, 2024

Mr Pink said:
Im the other way round.

I think we'll do Chelsea, very confident, despite them being up for it.

This is definitely the biggest gap between the sides ive known in a long time, in our favour.

We'll keep our heads and beat them this time.

Anfield will be a cauldron, as title race and revenge for earlier in the season.

Arsenal at home I think we'll win if virtually full strength. The stadium will be bouncing.

To be fair I also see all of those perspectives haha, lets circle back after those games mate and see who was right about which, any of them could go either way to be fair.

SirHarryHotspur · Mar 12, 2024

If Villa are going to play like they did on Sunday against Man C , Woolwich and Liverpool I can see them losing all three , just keep up our form and at least fourth place should be ours .

Arden · Mar 12, 2024

Depends on how shagged Liverpool are by the time we play them but the flip side is you just know they will have the officials trying to make amends for earlier in the season.

Nayim60yards · Mar 12, 2024

dontcallme said:
10-11 points behind 3rd-1st with a game in hand.

With only 10 games left we can't challenge for the title and can only nick 3rd if one of the current top three completely fall apart.

But we have 11 games left...

Nayim60yards · Mar 12, 2024

arunspurs said:
Villa & Spurs to face Arsenal, City & Liverpool in the remaining games. These 6 games should decide the outcome of Title challenge & top4.

Villa to play : Westham, City, Liverpool,Arsenal,Chelsea,Wolves, Brentford, Brighton,Bournemouth,Chelsea, Palace,
Spurs to play. : Westham,City, Liverpool,Arsenal,Chelsea,Newcastle,Fulham,Forest,Luton,Burnley,Sheffield

Both play 5 common opponents and 4 of the remaining 6 are relegation zone teams. With a extra game in hand , I would say we are well placed on paper to get more points than Villa in the run in

Villa don't play Chelsea twice do they?

dontcallme · Mar 12, 2024

Nayim60yards said:
Villa don't play Chelsea twice do they?

No, just once more.

Saoirse · Mar 12, 2024

Annoying to see Arsenal go through, but does at least get England another 0.75 coefficient points and bring them within touching distance of Germany now. Germany 15.5, England 15.375. Germans have a chance for more points tomorrow with Dortmund vs PSV, but then 4 English teams vs just 2 Germans on Thursday. In a best-case scenario over the next couple of days, England will be clearly ahead, with five teams left in Europe compared to two, and the 5th spot will be 99% certainly secured.

rossdapep · Mar 12, 2024

WorthATry said:
Those results look wildly optimistic

Yeah we will definitely lose a couple.

But I do think that computer is out.

I mean we play all of the bottom 4 and the 2 trickier ones of those are at home so we should get 12 from that.

There's no way we only take 5 points from the other 7 games.

Westmorlandspur · Mar 13, 2024

Saoirse said:
Annoying to see Arsenal go through, but does at least get England another 0.75 coefficient points and bring them within touching distance of Germany now. Germany 15.5, England 15.375. Germans have a chance for more points tomorrow with Dortmund vs PSV, but then 4 English teams vs just 2 Germans on Thursday. In a best-case scenario over the next couple of days, England will be clearly ahead, with five teams left in Europe compared to two, and the 5th spot will be 99% certainly secured.

It’s Germany 15.5. England 15.0. I think if West Ham beat Freiburg on Thursday and go through, England will definitely get that extra place. They have Bayern and Leverkusen who may get more pts but if Dortmund get through tonight , they won’t get any further. We will have 5 teams all liable to gain quite a few more pts. Brighton might even get a couple of pts v Roma even though they will go out.

thebenjamin · Mar 13, 2024

Just beat Arsenal and stop them winning the league. Obviously get CL in the process but win that game ffs.

bubble07 · Mar 13, 2024

SpursSince1980 said:
I wonder what is the earliest date we'll know if 5th is enough to qualify

If west ham beat freiberg thirday and psv beat dormund today then then its looking very very very good

ardiles&villa · Mar 13, 2024

bubble07 said:
If west ham beat freiberg thirday and psv beat dormund today then then its looking very very very good

Don’t rely on the pikeys

Wolvesyid · Mar 13, 2024

Would say Villa and West Ham going through will probably be enough.

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