Saoirse
Well-Known Member
- Aug 20, 2013
- 6,164
- 15,642
Thought I'd start tracking how Wildcard qualifying looks for the Champions League, with the new format starting in 2024.
The two teams with the best coefficient score over the last 5 years, who haven't qualified for the UCL group stage but have qualified for Europe, will be upgraded to a UCL place. The coefficient is calculated by giving each team 2 points per win in Europe, and 1 point per draw (excluding qualifying rounds, and from this season onwards the First Knockout Round of the Europa League and Conference League, since sides winning their group will skip this). Games decided on penalties are counted as draws.
There are also bonus points. In the Champions League, you get 4 points for playing in the Group Stage, 5 points for reaching the Last 16, and 1 point for reaching each of the QF, SF and Final. In the Europa, you get no bonus but a minimum of 3 points for the Group Stage (i.e. if you lose all 6 games you still get 3 points, but if you get some wins you don't get an additional bonus), a 4-point bonus for winning the group, a 2-point bonus for finishing 2nd, and a 1-point bonus for reaching each of the L16, QF, SF and Final. And in the Conference League, you get no bonus but a minimum of 2.5 points in the Group Stage, a bonus of 2 points for winning the group, a bonus of 1 point for coming 2nd, and a bonus of 1 point for reaching each of the SF and the Final. Teams going out of the Conference League before the Group Stage get 1 point for going out in the First Qualifying Round, 1.5 for the Second, 2 for the Third, and 2.5 for the Playoff.
The table so far is:
Gold = Top 2, so guaranteed a wildcard spot in the unlikely event a team this good needs it.
Green = A position good enough to have secured a wildcard spot every time so far, had this format been in place since 2017 (harder to calculate before then as the coefficient system changed a lot).
Yellow = A position which would have been good enough in some years since 2017, but not others.
Red = A position in the Top 25, but not good enough in any of those years
Grey = Teams outside the Top 25 which may still have a chance (they a) have enough points to potentially make the ground to Yellow up, b) are from a major league, and c) are in Europe this season).
Therefore, performing well in Europe over the next three years is important, even if we don't win trophies. In order to reach Yellow, we'd need approximately 20 points per season over the next three years. To be on track this year, we'd need something like going through the group as winners with 4 wins and 2 draws, getting through both the R16 and the QF with a win and a draw over the two legs, and then going out in the SF with a draw and a loss.
In order to reach Green, we'd need approximately 25 points per season over the next three years. To be on track this year, we'd need something like going through the group as winners with 5 wins and 1 draw, winning both legs in the R16 and the QF, and then winning the Semi Finals on aggregate after a win and a loss.
The first matches relevant to this contest are taking place this week. The main one is Genk vs Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round. We want Shakhtar to go out to aid in our pursuit of them. In the same round, there's also Malmö vs Rangers and Spartak Moscow vs Benfica, but Rangers and Benfica are both a fair amount behind us at present.
The two teams with the best coefficient score over the last 5 years, who haven't qualified for the UCL group stage but have qualified for Europe, will be upgraded to a UCL place. The coefficient is calculated by giving each team 2 points per win in Europe, and 1 point per draw (excluding qualifying rounds, and from this season onwards the First Knockout Round of the Europa League and Conference League, since sides winning their group will skip this). Games decided on penalties are counted as draws.
There are also bonus points. In the Champions League, you get 4 points for playing in the Group Stage, 5 points for reaching the Last 16, and 1 point for reaching each of the QF, SF and Final. In the Europa, you get no bonus but a minimum of 3 points for the Group Stage (i.e. if you lose all 6 games you still get 3 points, but if you get some wins you don't get an additional bonus), a 4-point bonus for winning the group, a 2-point bonus for finishing 2nd, and a 1-point bonus for reaching each of the L16, QF, SF and Final. And in the Conference League, you get no bonus but a minimum of 2.5 points in the Group Stage, a bonus of 2 points for winning the group, a bonus of 1 point for coming 2nd, and a bonus of 1 point for reaching each of the SF and the Final. Teams going out of the Conference League before the Group Stage get 1 point for going out in the First Qualifying Round, 1.5 for the Second, 2 for the Third, and 2.5 for the Playoff.
The table so far is:
Gold = Top 2, so guaranteed a wildcard spot in the unlikely event a team this good needs it.
Green = A position good enough to have secured a wildcard spot every time so far, had this format been in place since 2017 (harder to calculate before then as the coefficient system changed a lot).
Yellow = A position which would have been good enough in some years since 2017, but not others.
Red = A position in the Top 25, but not good enough in any of those years
Grey = Teams outside the Top 25 which may still have a chance (they a) have enough points to potentially make the ground to Yellow up, b) are from a major league, and c) are in Europe this season).
Therefore, performing well in Europe over the next three years is important, even if we don't win trophies. In order to reach Yellow, we'd need approximately 20 points per season over the next three years. To be on track this year, we'd need something like going through the group as winners with 4 wins and 2 draws, getting through both the R16 and the QF with a win and a draw over the two legs, and then going out in the SF with a draw and a loss.
In order to reach Green, we'd need approximately 25 points per season over the next three years. To be on track this year, we'd need something like going through the group as winners with 5 wins and 1 draw, winning both legs in the R16 and the QF, and then winning the Semi Finals on aggregate after a win and a loss.
The first matches relevant to this contest are taking place this week. The main one is Genk vs Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round. We want Shakhtar to go out to aid in our pursuit of them. In the same round, there's also Malmö vs Rangers and Spartak Moscow vs Benfica, but Rangers and Benfica are both a fair amount behind us at present.
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