Implications of change of formation on any January transfer business

[journeyman]

I hope this shift to a 4-2-3-1 is permanent. Our players know and understand it and it’s a better shape for us offensively and defensively, with more players too in their natural positions.

However, while Hojbjerg and Skipp are clearly the first choice pair for the pivot 2, we are definitely in trouble there if one of them gets injured with - as we know now - none of Ndombele, GLC or Dele suited to the role, leaving only the underperforming Winks as backup. We need another no. 6 in January, I feel.

Further up the field, we have lots of options for the role behind Kane, with Ndombele, GLC, Lucas, Gil & Dele all possibilities there. Ndombele and GLC have to be first options for their pass-picking ability, while Lucas and Gil can (and do more often) offer great options from out wide too. Dele is the one it makes sense to move on therefore; a talented player still, and a committed one, but we’ve better options everywhere he plays.

Beyond that, we still lack a replacement for Vinicius and someone who can ensure Kane & Son get a rest on at least some ECL nights; Scarlett not quite there yet in that respect.

Re more outgoings, Doherty & Sess (on loan?) the most obvious ones for me if we get offers; neither even second-choice in their respective positions at this stage.

 

[mr ashley]

Will be interesting to see.
completely agree that we are an injury / suspension away from playing a significantly weaker player in a key role in Cm and cf
Ideally we have someone lined up to come in January. Maybe nandez who we were linked to, unless we bring Sarr over earlier than originally expected.
Sadly have no idea who we might be looking at as a Kane backup. Could have done worse than Hwang hee chan
Scarlett clearly still has some way to go until he’s really ready.
From the current squad, winks and alli need to go -on loan if needs be.
The rest are less of a concern (I expect sessegnon when fit to come in as the back up lb).
If we can find someone to take Doherty then fine. Not sure we will though. Could see that becoming another aurier situation where we pay him off to get shot of him

 

[sammyj]

Will be interesting to see.
completely agree that we are an injury / suspension away from playing a significantly weaker player in a key role in Cm and cf
Ideally we have someone lined up to come in January. Maybe nandez who we were linked to, unless we bring Sarr over earlier than originally expected.
Sadly have no idea who we might be looking at as a Kane backup. Could have done worse than Hwang hee chan
Scarlett clearly still has some way to go until he’s really ready.
From the current squad, winks and alli need to go -on loan if needs be.
The rest are less of a concern (I expect sessegnon when fit to come in as the back up lb).
If we can find someone to take Doherty then fine. Not sure we will though. Could see that becoming another aurier situation where we pay him off to get shot of him

Going to be stuck with Doherty for ever , in fairness Aurier is a much better RB then Doherty

 

[JayB]

I completely agree with the first post, both regarding 4-2-3-1 being a better formation for our current squad and with the notion that we need to bolster the ranks of the holding midfielders.

The failure of the Dele in a CM3 experiment has left us one player short in central midfield. Ndomble and Lo Celso aren't suited to a CM2, which leaves only Winks as backup in the double pivot. That's really not good enough. We do have Sarr coming in next summer, but for me he should replace Winks and we should be looking to strengthen in January given how short of options we currently are. Sell Dele in order to fund it if need be.

A great target for the coming window would be Franck Kessie. We know Paratici has been chasing him and with only six months left on his contract we may be able to do a Holtby and get him for a snip, as it's Milan's last chance to get any money for him at all. Regardless, we need to be strengthening the holding midfield area in January if we plan to stick with the 4-2-3-1 (which we really ought to do). There have been extremely tenuous links to Ryan Gravenberch which would be amazing, and there are a couple of midfielders in the Premier League who would fit the bill as well, but Kessie is the most realistic for January given his contract situation.

I also think we need to strengthen at striker, CB, and RWF. The latter two positions will probably be left until the summer but for me we should be targeting a striker in January. We're one injury away from crisis and it'd give time for a signing to settle before Kane likely leaves in the summer (assuming he doesn't sign a new contract). I'll work through a list of players that might feasibly be available in January in a separate post, as it would make this post unreasonably long and is a separate topic than the holding CM issue.

 

[JayB]

In this post I'll go through a few names of strikers that could feasibly be available in January. It's hard enough for us to buy strikers no matter the circumstances, but all the moreso in January when teams don't want to be losing key goalscorers, so I'll focus entirely on players (1) whose contracts are such that their clubs have some incentive to sell now rather than wait until summer; (2) who play in leagues where clubs are in financial crisis due to the pandemic; or (3) are in a situation where their club would be reasonably likely to sell even if neither of the first two conditions are met. There was a really interesting thread on the Spurs subreddit today with a number of posters chipping in with ideas as to who they'd like us to target in January. Taking the names that were mentioned, players we've been linked to in the press, and some ideas of my own, here's my list, in rough order of preference:

1. Vlahovic. Top young prospect, a potential future worldie. Fiorentina held onto him in the summer believing they'd be able to tie him down to a new contract but so far he's refused their offers, and their chairman recently admitted to the press that the situation was "worrying". As of January he'll only have 18 months remaining on his contract so it'll be their last chance to cash in on him for his full transfer value before it gets slashed in June. They quoted us a fuck off price in the summer but they weren't willing sellers then, saying in the press that he was going to sign a new contract. It seems that their confidence is waivering and if they're convinced he's running down his contract they may come to the table, and we may be able to get him for closer to the value that Paratici initially thought could be agreed in the summer. All of Europe will be after him and we've probably missed our chance, but we should certainly try to steal a march by snapping him up at full price in January while other clubs wait to get him for a snip in the summer. The player probably won't come to us now but we should very well fucking try.

2. Jonathan David. Twenty-one year old striker with a very good scoring record who won Ligue 1 with Lille last season. Lille were widely reported to be in financial crisis over the summer, but did sell a few players so may not need the cash as desperately. To the extent that they're still skint and need to raise funds, he'd be something of a coup IMO. Would probably be the second-most expensive striker on this list (Lille paid a lot for him when they brought him in in summer 2020) but if there was money for Traore there should be money for a striker.

3. Sardar Azmoun. A bit older at 26, but somewhat reasonably established with an excellent goal-scoring record in Russia and a halfway decent return of 4 goals in 12 European matches for a mediocre side. Will only have six months remaining on his contract as of January and Zenit's Champions League campaign will likely be over, so they may be more willing to sell than they were in the summer, and if so it'd be at a Levy-friendly price. A bit risky and perhaps should be lower on my list given that he's only ever performed in the Russian league, but it's been reported that Paratici tried to sign him in the summer and if Fabio likes him then I like him. I reckon he'd be able to play in a front line partnering Kane and Son, which might give us an opportunity to give him more playing time and get him settled sooner than simply playing him in cups would.

4. Saša Kalajdžić. A towering 24-year-old striker for Stuttgart, standing at 6'7". The reason I really like him is that his fbref scouting report shows him to be one of the most clinical strikers in Europe, outperforming his xG at a rate that puts him in the 98th percentile in the top five leagues. So we're talking about a player who has been genuinely elite in terms of finishing chances over the past 365 days (which is the timeframe from which fbref compares its data). He's been out with a shoulder injury since August and is due back around the time of the January window, but the injury has meant that Stuttgart has already replaced him and have two other strikers, so there wouldn't seem to be an insurmountable barrier to transcend in order to get him in January. The record fee that Stuttgart has ever received is €35m, so any price we might pay likely wouldn't be extortionate. He's the right age, the right statistical profile, at a club that is probably willing to sell at a reasonable price, and a genuine target man who would give us a tactical Plan B.

5. Amine Gouiri. Twenty-one year old striker at Nice who is putting up some of the best stats in Ligue 1. Given the financial struggles of the entire French league (aside from PSG) he may well be attainable. Sets up loads of chances for his teammates and is scoring goals. I've got him further down the list because I question whether he'd fit the physical profile of the Premier League. Neither tall nor exceptionally strong and seems a bit one-paced (though not slow). He's extremely technical though so may be able to thrive despite those limitations.

6. Scamacca. We know Paratici has been following him since Paratici was at Juve. Young player, at Sassuolo who are probably struggling a bit financially and may be willing sellers, and Fabio likes him. Doesn't have the greatest scoring record and is not the most clinical, but he's big and powerful and would absolutely suit the Prem. Certainly still young enough that he could easily kick on and improve by leaps and bounds.

7. Ricardo Pepi. Teenage Mexican-American who has burst onto the scene in MLS and for the U.S. national team this season. Will almost certainly be sold by his club in MLS in January and, if he lives up to his potential, would be absolutely massive from a commercial perspective. I've got him at the bottom of the list as he's young and raw and is definitely not ready for Premier League football, although I reckon he could do a job in the Conference League. Since we've got the Conference League to blood young players, now may not be the worst time to invest in a young talent with major financial upside. This is the sort of deal that Levy would like but he's years away from being at the level of the others on the list.

 

[hellava_tough]

My ideal midfield line-up would be 2 x ball-playing defensive midfielders in a double pivot and an all-out number 10, with flair, creativity and goals ahead of them.

An acceptable midfield line-up would be 1 x defensive holding midfielder, 1 x ball-playing midfielder and a number 10 of some fashion ahead of them.

The number 10s in both set-ups need to be able to move the ball quickly; this is really crucial and it calls for technical prowess (one touch football) and vision/awareness on the pitch.

Currently our midfield is a bit of a mess in terms of balance and injuries, form and changes in coaching staff haven't helped.

Even though he's had an improvement in his form, I still don't think NDombele really fits in anywhere and the same is true of Dele.

I know that some would disagree, but the target is Champions League football and then league titles; honestly, would either of those players make it into Utd, City, Chelsea or Liverpool's starting XI? I doubt it, because those sides are better balanced.

That's the level we're looking at.

In the short-term, we'll have to do with PEH and Skipp in the same side, but it's not ideal or acceptable tbh. Also, GLC still hasn't cemented his place due to a number of reasons.

If we had money to burn I'd get shot of pretty much ever central midfielder we had at the club and start again (probably keeping Skipp as he's young and developing).

But we don't have money to burn, so we have to move forward accordingly.

In January I'd go and buy a proper number 10, so we could play Skipp (DCM), GLC (number 8) and new player in that number 10 role. PEH could be back-up for Skipp or GLC until we can start getting in CMs who are a lot better than what we have currently.

Next summer we can look to bring in a couple of decent ball-playing DCMs. That would leave our midfielder options with 2 x new DCMs, Skipp and PEH as back up, with the new number 10 and possibly GLC playing second fiddle to him.

Honestly, we have to be really ruthless if we want to win the Premier League and I think some on this forum have soft-spots for some of our players. This group of players have been crap for 2 or 3 seasons now, so something has to give; I'm fed up with talking about ability and talent. If you're not performing after 2 seasons, then you're out the door.

That's my take anyway.

 

[Clive Wilson]

A beast of a CM is my priority, a flat track bully that dominates the middle of the park alongside PEH/Skipp.

 

[onthetwo]

excellent post - i fear that we will have to cross our fingers re the fitness of Skipp and PEH and hope that Sarr hits the ground running when he comes in the summer.
No doubt GLC, Tanguy, Winks and Dele will have to be back-up options until then despite their short-comings for the role.
Over to you Mr Paratici for a New Years rabbit from the hat!

 

[Blake Griffin]

been watching leverkusen this season and i really like patrik schick and moussa diaby. schick i'm sure people know about, was a hot prospect a few years back but never quite hit the heights expected but had an excellent euros and has carried that form into this season. good height at 6'3 but nimble and mobile too, scores a range of goals. his czech teammates in east london have done well so maybe he would do similarly well. they did pay around 25m for him a year ago though so would no doubt want a sizeable return on their outlay. diaby is a bit like leon bailey but generally just better, cuts in from the right onto his left foot and is extremely fast. creates and scores at a similar rate.

finally, karim adeyemi at rb salzburg. 19 year old german striker who is banging them in this year, very quick and capable of playing anywhere across the front three. he's probably destined for leipzig at this rate so would need to act sooner rather than later.

 

[sammyj]

Sell Doherty at a boot market and put the money to our transfer budget

 

[alexis]

In this post I'll go through a few names of strikers that could feasibly be available in January. It's hard enough for us to buy strikers no matter the circumstances, but all the moreso in January when teams don't want to be losing key goalscorers, so I'll focus entirely on players (1) whose contracts are such that their clubs have some incentive to sell now rather than wait until summer; (2) who play in leagues where clubs are in financial crisis due to the pandemic; or (3) are in a situation where their club would be reasonably likely to sell even if neither of the first two conditions are met. There was a really interesting thread on the Spurs subreddit today with a number of posters chipping in with ideas as to who they'd like us to target in January. Taking the names that were mentioned, players we've been linked to in the press, and some ideas of my own, here's my list, in rough order of preference:

1. Vlahovic. Top young prospect, a potential future worldie. Fiorentina held onto him in the summer believing they'd be able to tie him down to a new contract but so far he's refused their offers, and their chairman recently admitted to the press that the situation was "worrying". As of January he'll only have 18 months remaining on his contract so it'll be their last chance to cash in on him for his full transfer value before it gets slashed in June. They quoted us a fuck off price in the summer but they weren't willing sellers then, saying in the press that he was going to sign a new contract. It seems that their confidence is waivering and if they're convinced he's running down his contract they may come to the table, and we may be able to get him for closer to the value that Paratici initially thought could be agreed in the summer. All of Europe will be after him and we've probably missed our chance, but we should certainly try to steal a march by snapping him up at full price in January while other clubs wait to get him for a snip in the summer. The player probably won't come to us now but we should very well fucking try.

2. Jonathan David. Twenty-one year old striker with a very good scoring record who won Ligue 1 with Lille last season. Lille were widely reported to be in financial crisis over the summer, but did sell a few players so may not need the cash as desperately. To the extent that they're still skint and need to raise funds, he'd be something of a coup IMO. Would probably be the second-most expensive striker on this list (Lille paid a lot for him when they brought him in in summer 2020) but if there was money for Traore there should be money for a striker.

3. Sardar Azmoun. A bit older at 26, but somewhat reasonably established with an excellent goal-scoring record in Russia and a halfway decent return of 4 goals in 12 European matches for a mediocre side. Will only have six months remaining on his contract as of January and Zenit's Champions League campaign will likely be over, so they may be more willing to sell than they were in the summer, and if so it'd be at a Levy-friendly price. A bit risky and perhaps should be lower on my list given that he's only ever performed in the Russian league, but it's been reported that Paratici tried to sign him in the summer and if Fabio likes him then I like him. I reckon he'd be able to play in a front line partnering Kane and Son, which might give us an opportunity to give him more playing time and get him settled sooner than simply playing him in cups would.

4. Saša Kalajdžić. A towering 24-year-old striker for Stuttgart, standing at 6'7". The reason I really like him is that his fbref scouting report shows him to be one of the most clinical strikers in Europe, outperforming his xG at a rate that puts him in the 98th percentile in the top five leagues. So we're talking about a player who has been genuinely elite in terms of finishing chances over the past 365 days (which is the timeframe from which fbref compares its data). He's been out with a shoulder injury since August and is due back around the time of the January window, but the injury has meant that Stuttgart has already replaced him and have two other strikers, so there wouldn't seem to be an insurmountable barrier to transcend in order to get him in January. The record fee that Stuttgart has ever received is €35m, so any price we might pay likely wouldn't be extortionate. He's the right age, the right statistical profile, at a club that is probably willing to sell at a reasonable price, and a genuine target man who would give us a tactical Plan B.

5. Amine Gouiri. Twenty-one year old striker at Nice who is putting up some of the best stats in Ligue 1. Given the financial struggles of the entire French league (aside from PSG) he may well be attainable. Sets up loads of chances for his teammates and is scoring goals. I've got him further down the list because I question whether he'd fit the physical profile of the Premier League. Neither tall nor exceptionally strong and seems a bit one-paced (though not slow). He's extremely technical though so may be able to thrive despite those limitations.

6. Scamacca. We know Paratici has been following him since Paratici was at Juve. Young player, at Sassuolo who are probably struggling a bit financially and may be willing sellers, and Fabio likes him. Doesn't have the greatest scoring record and is not the most clinical, but he's big and powerful and would absolutely suit the Prem. Certainly still young enough that he could easily kick on and improve by leaps and bounds.

7. Ricardo Pepi. Teenage Mexican-American who has burst onto the scene in MLS and for the U.S. national team this season. Will almost certainly be sold by his club in MLS in January and, if he lives up to his potential, would be absolutely massive from a commercial perspective. I've got him at the bottom of the list as he's young and raw and is definitely not ready for Premier League football, although I reckon he could do a job in the Conference League. Since we've got the Conference League to blood young players, now may not be the worst time to invest in a young talent with major financial upside. This is the sort of deal that Levy would like but he's years away from being at the level of the others on the list.

Great summary thank you

 

[alexis]

Sell Doherty at a boot market and put the money to our transfer budget

or put it towards a cup of tea an a burger