Player Watch Player Watch: Timo Werner

[ItsBoris]

is nico williams and his 3 goals this season that much of a game-changer?

i get the appeal, he's fast and he beats players but right now, that's largely where it ends.

I think he could be. Not to be a stats merchant, but Nico Willians has 4.84 shot creating actions per game, 5.9 progressive carries, 3.71 successful take ons.

For Brennan Johnson, those numbers are: 2.74, 3.70, 1.04.

For Son, 3.63, 2.85, and 1.20.

The interesting thing is, in these metrics Jeremy Doku is off the charts. Above the 97th percentile in all 3 areas (6.44, 10.84, and 6.02). On the one hand that shows that these metrics aren't all that matter, but also that Pep wanted a player in this mould to break down deeper lying defenses. I think as Doku gets more experience he'll become a ridiculous player. I didn't realize he's only 21. But yeah I think a player like Williams in addition to one like Eze would strike good balance.

 

[mil1lion]

We need 2 top class attacking players a WF and ST as absolute priority. A n.o6 and a 4th CB would be next after that.

No reason why we can’t sign 5 players this summer.

If Werner is in addition to 2 top quality attacking signings then great, if not then I’d rather we didn’t sign Werner and we put our budget towards 2 top quality attacking players.

Fairly simple stuff really.

Defensive midfielder is certainly up there as the most important. Realistically Werner is better than Gil and Soloman and we shifted Perisic already. In the ideal world we should be signing Werner plus 2 more attackers. Although personally I think 1 more established one and 1 young prospect (Nusa alternative).

 

[freeeki]

I think nearly everyone here agrees: of course he’s a good squad player but does he raise us a level? Not really. He’s a bit similar to Richarlison in that way. A really great, hard working guy to have around the squad, fits in, does his best for the team but they’re not players who drag you up a level, not for a top four team anyway.

Yeah I think this is a fair comment on both Werner and Richy.

I really like them both a lot, seem like great guys, but they don't raise the average of the squad - and, crucially, neither are going to get much better.

 

[HildoSpur]

Defensive midfielder is certainly up there as the most important. Realistically Werner is better than Gil and Soloman and we shifted Perisic already. In the ideal world we should be signing Werner plus 2 more attackers. Although personally I think 1 more established one and 1 young prospect (Nusa alternative).

We also desperately need a proper back-up to VDV, without VDV we really struggle without his pace at the back - we can't go another season without somebody who can slot in and do what he does if he gets injured. To me - that and a defensive midfielder are our number 1 priority. Another attacker obviously is needed but if we keep Werner then we can probably get away with just one of those (for this window anyway) which is my point. We can't do it all in one window.

 

[nico97531]

But those stats don't show how wasteful he is, how bad his shooting is and how little of a goal threat he is.

Look I don't think he's a bad player, far from it, I'm a big Timo fan and I'd be fine with us signing his as a back-up option in addition to us signing 2 top quality attackers, 1 striker and one top class WF who is more of a creative and goal threat, but I'm just saying stats alone are almost meaningless, have to be combined with the eye test so you can see that players whole performance. Stats can be missleading.

Well, there’s stats regarding this which showed Werner had missed 5 big chances in 12 apps, his non penalty goal - xg is -1.7 which does confirm your eye test that he should be scoring more,

but compared that to Johnson who had missed 11 big chances in 29 apps, who’s non penalty goal - xg is -2.8, suggesting he’s just as much a problem if not worse in being a goal threat.

nico Williams who everyone seems to want, has a non penalty goal - xg of -1.2 which suggests he’s not going to be a much bigger goal threat currently either.

Diaz, the starting LWF for Liverpool has also missed 11 big chances this season, his non penalty goal - xg is -2.6, suggesting he’s just as wasteful if not worse than Werner but that doesn’t seem to affect Liverpool challenging, IMO that’s because apart from scoring chances, what’s more important is that he’s in the team to do a job and obviously he’s doing that job well otherwise he wouldn’t be starting, which is similar to Werner, who’s in the team to do a job and I think he’s doing it pretty well at the moment.

and besides, I am not so sure adding a 1v1 specialist is going to magically solve all our attacking problems, in that city match against Chelsea, they had 3 elite 1v1 players in the team and was just as ineffective as us against Newcastle.

I think our current problems are more to do with the tempo we play our games and the efforts the team is putting in, you don’t have to go back to the Poch era, all you have to do is compare with how we played in the first couple of months in the season where we played with a much higher tempo, the style was much more free flowing and we got in behind frequently.

comparing to how we are playing currently with a much slower tempo and spend most of the time passing aimlessly from side to side which was very similar to how city played against Chelsea. I am not sure this change was forced upon us as in all our oppositions had worked us out or it’s by design as in to gain more control of the game and not let the match falls into a game of transitions as said by Ange in his interview after the Newcastle game but the style certainly has a negative effect on our attacking play.

What is certainly impacting how we play is that the collective effort from the team has been dropping, stats showed that the average distance covered per game has been dropping since it reached its peak at January from a little under 12 km to the lowest point in the season at a little over 10.5 km in that Newcastle game, the pressing stats has also been dropping since late December where we are having over 200 pressing runs per game to a bit over 150 in the Newcastle game. It’s a concern that the team can’t seem to find the energy in the most important part of the season and Unless Ange can sort out this problem then I don’t think adding 1 or 2 attackers is going to solve our issues next season.

 

[WiganSpur]

Yeah I think this is a fair comment on both Werner and Richy.

I really like them both a lot, seem like great guys, but they don't raise the average of the squad - and, crucially, neither are going to get much better.

I've flip flopped a lot on Richy but I think he's fine unless we can bring in a truly world class striker. He also offers us something different to Son. I'd be wary especially about replacing Richarlison with Dutch League forwards. I think the bigger issues are in the wide positions. Objectively the only teams in the Prem who have a better pair of number 9s than us are Man City (Haaland and Alvarez) and possibly Newcastle (Isak and Wilson).

I wouldn't swap Richy and Son for Nketiah and Jesus, or even Nunez and Gakpo.

 

[HildoSpur]

Well, there’s stats regarding this which showed Werner had missed 5 big chances in 12 apps, his non penalty goal - xg is -1.7 which does confirm your eye test that he should be scoring more,

but compared that to Johnson who had missed 11 big chances in 29 apps, who’s non penalty goal - xg is -2.8, suggesting he’s just as much a problem if not worse in being a goal threat.

nico Williams who everyone seems to want, has a non penalty goal - xg of -1.2 which suggests he’s not going to be a much bigger goal threat currently either.

Diaz, the starting LWF for Liverpool has also missed 11 big chances this season, his non penalty goal - xg is -2.6, suggesting he’s just as wasteful if not worse than Werner but that doesn’t seem to affect Liverpool challenging, IMO that’s because apart from scoring chances, what’s more important is that he’s in the team to do a job and obviously he’s doing that job well otherwise he wouldn’t be starting, which is similar to Werner, who’s in the team to do a job and I think he’s doing it pretty well at the moment.

and besides, I am not so sure adding a 1v1 specialist is going to magically solve all our attacking problems, in that city match against Chelsea, they had 3 elite 1v1 players in the team and was just as ineffective as us against Newcastle.

I think our current problems are more to do with the tempo we play our games and the efforts the team is putting in, you don’t have to go back to the Poch era, all you have to do is compare with how we played in the first couple of months in the season where we played with a much higher tempo, the style was much more free flowing and we got in behind frequently.

comparing to how we are playing currently with a much slower tempo and spend most of the time passing aimlessly from side to side which was very similar to how city played against Chelsea. I am not sure this change was forced upon us as in all our oppositions had worked us out or it’s by design as in to gain more control of the game and not let the match falls into a game of transitions as said by Ange in his interview after the Newcastle game but the style certainly has a negative effect on our attacking play.

What is certainly impacting how we play is that the collective effort from the team has been dropping, stats showed that the average distance covered per game has been dropping since it reached its peak at January from a little under 12 km to the lowest point in the season at a little over 10.5 km in that Newcastle game, the pressing stats has also been dropping since late December where we are having over 200 pressing runs per game to a bit over 150 in the Newcastle game. It’s a concern that the team can’t seem to find the energy in the most important part of the season and Unless Ange can sort out this problem then I don’t think adding 1 or 2 attackers is going to solve our issues next season.

I agree with all this. I understand the view that we need more in attack - I don't agree however the biggest problem we have as a team is not scoring goals, it's the number of goals we are conceding. Which is why I think a defensive midfielder (and a back-up to VDV) is probably the number 1 priority in the summer.

 

[WiganSpur]

Everyone knows Werner is a shit finisher and he'll never get better at that now. But it's obvious he brings other qualities to the team like raw pace, running and assists. He also has a really good attitude and works his bollocks off.

 

[bubble07]

Everyone knows Werner is a shit finisher and he'll never get better at that now. But it's obvious he brings other qualities to the team like raw pace, running and assists. He also has a really good attitude and works his bollocks off.

Agree with all that but no top team can afford to have one of the front 3 not scoring goals

 

[WiganSpur]

Agree with all that but no top team can afford to have one of the front 3 not scoring goals

I'd be worried if we were signing him to start every game but I don't think we would be? I don't see a huge issue with him as a rotation player.

 

[bubble07]

I'd be worried if we were signing him to start every game but I don't think we would be? I don't see a huge issue with him as a rotation player.

Yea think I agree and although 15m feels like a good deal when you consider noone in Europe has money doubt we can shift players not required for similar prices

 

[Nick-TopSpursMan]

I agree with all this. I understand the view that we need more in attack - I don't agree however the biggest problem we have as a team is not scoring goals, it's the number of goals we are conceding. Which is why I think a defensive midfielder (and a back-up to VDV) is probably the number 1 priority in the summer.

The problem is one of the reasons we concede so many goals is the make up of our attack. We have no one in the attack who can dictate the tempo of attacks, slow it down, speed it up, retain possession, beat a man in a tight space, combine with sharp passing in tight areas.

Watch how often attacks break down with our front 3. It allows teams to consistently hit us on the counter.

If we had a better mix in the front 3 we would be able to retain possession much longer around the opposition box which would:

1. Generate more goalscoring opportunities

2. Reduce how often we turnover the ball cheaply to allow opponents to counter attack us.

Too often with us at the moment if we don’t turn a move in to a chance immediately we struggle to make anything happen and just give it away cheaply.

A lot of the defensive issues actually come from the attacking profiles we have.

 

[HildoSpur]

The problem is one of the reasons we concede so many goals is the make up of our attack. We have no one in the attack who can dictate the tempo of attacks, slow it down, speed it up, retain possession, beat a man in a tight space, combine with sharp passing in tight areas.

Watch how often attacks break down with our front 3. It allows teams to consistently hit us on the counter.

If we had a better mix in the front 3 we would be able to retain possession much longer around the opposition box which would:

1. Generate more goalscoring opportunities

2. Reduce how often we turnover the ball cheaply to allow opponents to counter attack us.

Too often with us at the moment if we don’t turn a move in to a chance immediately we struggle to make anything happen and just give it away cheaply.

A lot of the defensive issues actually come from the attacking profiles we have.

Some of the defensive issues may come from our attacking profiles however the majority of the problem (imo) is because we are unable to control a match in midfield and struggle to recover and win back the ball when the opponent counters and we as a result leave our defense horribly exposed - hence why VDV is incredibly important with his pace (and why a back-up to him is absolutely vital).

One of the main reasons why we had such a fantastic start to the season was the incredible form of Bissouma because he was able to turn defence into attack and was brilliant at dominating that area just ahead of the defensive unit. Once he went off the boil we lost that and have suffered hugely as a result and we have been far too open and have been shipping goals at almost double the rate we would hope if we have any chance of pushing for titles.

 

[Nick-TopSpursMan]

Some of the defensive issues may come from our attacking profiles however the majority of the problem (imo) is because we are unable to control a match in midfield and struggle to recover and win back the ball when the opponent counters and we as a result leave our defense horribly exposed - hence why VDV is incredibly important with his pace (and why a back-up to him is absolutely vital).

One of the main reasons why we had such a fantastic start to the season was the incredible form of Bissouma because he was able to turn defence into attack and was brilliant at dominating that area just ahead of the defensive unit. Once he went off the boil we lost that and have suffered hugely as a result and we have been far too open and have been shipping goals at almost double the rate we would hope if we have any chance of pushing for titles.

I agree we struggle to control matches and agree with your general post but for me a decent chunk of the problem comes from the lack of control and balance in our attack.

If I was splitting our problems in to % I’d say:

30% - Poor balance of profiles in attack
30% - Structural issues from the 2-3 build up
30% - Balance in midfield and lack of a truly top class 6.
10% - Set pieces

 

[allatsea]

I'd be worried if we were signing him to start every game but I don't think we would be? I don't see a huge issue with him as a rotation player.

His wages ?

 

[BorjeSpurs]

We've scored 18 goals with Werner on the pitch since his arrival. Timo has been involved in 12 of these goals or 66,7%.

Spoiler: Breakdown

1. Good assist to Bentancur on debut against United.
2. Takes on two men and finds Udogie who scores against Brentford.
3. Beats a defender on the outside and provides a tap-in to Johnson against Brentford.
4. Outside of the boot pre-assist to Udogie in space who finds Richy against Everton.
5. Another pre-assist, finds Maddison who passes it on to Richy against Everton.
6. Good movement on the wrong side of defender allows him to score against Palace.
7. Lovely finish in the far corner after coming on as a sub against Villa.
8. Attacks the far post from a Johnson cross and forces an own goal against Luton.
9. Drives a counterattack and finds a low cross to Johnson who tees up Son against Luton.
10. Attacks a fully set defence and creates an assist to Johnson who taps in against WH.
11. Another good low cross but the defender gets there first for an OG against Forest.
12. Keeps the ball alive on the touchline and gets the attack going via Maddison for Porro's goal against Forest.

£14,6m in the summer is still a no-brainer for me.

 

[EssexSH27]

We've scored 18 goals with Werner on the pitch since his arrival. Timo has been involved in 12 of these goals or 66,7%.

Spoiler: Breakdown

1. Good assist to Bentancur on debut against United.
2. Takes on two men and finds Udogie who scores against Brentford.
3. Beats a defender on the outside and provides a tap-in to Johnson against Brentford.
4. Outside of the boot pre-assist to Udogie in space who finds Richy against Everton.
5. Another pre-assist, finds Maddison who passes it on to Richy against Everton.
6. Good movement on the wrong side of defender allows him to score against Palace.
7. Lovely finish in the far corner after coming on as a sub against Villa.
8. Attacks the far post from a Johnson cross and forces an own goal against Luton.
9. Drives a counterattack and finds a low cross to Johnson who tees up Son against Luton.
10. Attacks a fully set defence and creates an assist to Johnson who taps in against WH.
11. Another good low cross but the defender gets there first for an OG against Forest.
12. Keeps the ball alive on the touchline and gets the attack going via Maddison for Porro's goal against Forest.

£14,6m in the summer is still a no-brainer for me.

To be fair that numbers boosted because we haven’t done anything but play through him since he got here.

My biggest issue with signing him is how much our games changed with him there.

 

[BorjeSpurs]

To be fair that numbers boosted because we haven’t done anything but play through him since he got here.

My biggest issue with signing him is how much our games changed with him there.

So what's your argument? That we are so overly reliant on him that he shouldn't be signed?

 

[HildoSpur]

To be fair that numbers boosted because we haven’t done anything but play through him since he got here.

My biggest issue with signing him is how much our games changed with him there.

If you mean the performances of the team havent been great since Werner joined us well thats probably right. What I don't agree with is you suggesting this has anything to do with Werner being in the side. If anything he has performed much better than Kulusevski and several others since he joined us.

 

[mil1lion]

Agree with all that but no top team can afford to have one of the front 3 not scoring goals

He has to be a squad player. Moura and Lamela didn't score many either but they were still solid for Poch. It's the role I see for Werner but the only issue is that we're seeing him as a starter. He is producing more than Gil and Soloman is not much of a scorer but hasn't been able to show whether he can do it. We need to shift those 2 so we need at least 2 incoming. It's crazy to think we also had Perisic start of the season and Veliz so we were packed with forward options in a non European season. We probably need that depth in Europe next season. I assume Veliz will go on loan but if Werner replaces Perisic we still have Gil and Soloman who can be replaced and we're no more bloated than the start of this season.