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Race for 4th (or higher) 4.0

Riandor

COB Founder
May 26, 2004
9,420
11,634
Call me crazy but I chelsea may win that game

Tough one to call... My mystic powers though say 1-2 away Chelsea win alas.

But seriously, the race for top 4 this year is brutal! So many teams up there and all winning. Good to see Arsenal drop some points yesterday, but still.
 

ajspurs

Well-Known Member
Jul 7, 2007
23,260
31,643
Yea, it's extremely tight.

On this first half of the seasons showing I think each team have their vulnerabilities. WBA definitely won't be in the top 4, dropping too many points now, Everton are still unknown, I would personally expect them to fall away but you never know. I thought they would have by know but you would expect them to run out of steam eventually with their thin squad, maybe they'll slip away at around the same time Villa did that season when they were close but just ran out of gas.

Arsenal are like us in a way but with a few differences. I can't remember the last time I've said this, if ever, but we are looking extremely strong away from home... With Lennon and Bale teams are scared shitless and they're probably more reluctant to attack as they would usually like to because of it, this is obviously helped with the solidity of a Dembele and Sandro central midfield. Hopefully we'll continue on our away form and build on our home performances.
Arsenal on the other hand you feel could slip up at any moment, whether it be to a weak team at home or a weak team away. I'm not actually sure if the whole Walcott down the middle stuff will work out either, will be interesting to see... In games like the recent one against Saints they really needed someone who could hold the ball up front to try and enable the team to keep possession in the opposition half but Walcott is far from a target man. Hopefully all this premature excitement of Walcott in that position will mask over the fact that they still really need a decent striker as I personally don't think Giroud is the answer, either.
 

hellava_tough

Well-Known Member
Apr 21, 2005
9,429
12,383
We have a run now until March of "winnable" matches excluding Man Utd, although even this match is at home

If we can build up a 6 or 7 point lead on Arsenal who themselves have a very tough run of fixtures, we should be able to role with the punches in March and April, before cruising into 4th come May

It'll be interesting to see what happens over the January transfer window. If we get a Moutinho or the like, we'll be looking very strong!!

To be honest, I thought Arsenal's fire-power would see them get 4th, but after winning 7 of our last 9 matches I think our team is finally clicking. It should make for an interesting 2013!
 

fatpiranha

dismember
Jun 9, 2003
8,337
21,678
I think we are one quality striker signing away from guaranteeing a top 4 spot. Our defence is good, our midfield outstanding; but we need a reliable chance converter up front. Ade is in abject form and may be off to the ANC anyway. Defoe's record shows that he just doesn't score against good defences and struggles when weak teams 'park the bus' as well. Both are prone to going off the boil for prolonged periods.

We have reached the point where saying that our strikers are the weak spot in our team really isn't a criticism of the individuals anymore but simply an indication of how far we have come. Not reinforcing our strikeforce in the winter window has cost us CL qualification before. I am more hopeful than expectant that Levy will have learned from previous mistakes.
 

maltahotspur

Always look on the bright side of life
Oct 29, 2007
2,578
2,382
I think we are one quality striker signing away from guaranteeing a top 4 spot. Our defence is good, our midfield outstanding; but we need a reliable chance converter up front. Ade is in abject form and may be off to the ANC anyway. Defoe's record shows that he just doesn't score against good defences and struggles when weak teams 'park the bus' as well. Both are prone to going off the boil for prolonged periods.

We have reached the point where saying that our strikers are the weak spot in our team really isn't a criticism of the individuals anymore but simply an indication of how far we have come. Not reinforcing our strikeforce in the winter window has cost us CL qualification before. I am more hopeful than expectant that Levy will have learned from previous mistakes.

To a certain point, I agree with the point you are making. Ade has not put in the desired contribution this season as he did last season. Defoe, despite his goal stats is quite good, should score more with the number of goal scoring opportunities he gets in games. As much as I love the guy, and as much as a Yiddo he is, I think that his goal ratio to chances is not good enough.
Having said that, the January transfer window is not the ideal time to do transfer business. As such, I think that we will not get a striker this time round. I also think that if we can get someone who is really wanted by AVB - such as Moutinho/Willian - we will do the deal. This will stregthen us for the run in and hence obtain a top 4 finish.
 

ardiles

Well-Known Member
Nov 24, 2006
13,228
40,308
To a certain point, I agree with the point you are making. Ade has not put in the desired contribution this season as he did last season. Defoe, despite his goal stats is quite good, should score more with the number of goal scoring opportunities he gets in games. As much as I love the guy, and as much as a Yiddo he is, I think that his goal ratio to chances is not good enough.
Having said that, the January transfer window is not the ideal time to do transfer business. As such, I think that we will not get a striker this time round. I also think that if we can get someone who is really wanted by AVB - such as Moutinho/Willian - we will do the deal. This will stregthen us for the run in and hence obtain a top 4 finish.

I understand yr point that January is not the ideal time to do any major transfers, however, in our current position of
"fourth" (I'd expect Chelsea to overtake us when they complete their two games in hand), if any of the other teams
vying for that 3rd and 4th positions (I've not included the two Mancs club as they'll probably occupy the top two positions),
were to strengthen their teams during this window, then we might end up missing out on CL again for next season (just
like we did last season, although not via the same circumstance of another EPL club winning the CL and taking our place).

I'd rather DL spend some money on at least one top signing, - be it Moutinho, Willian, Llorente or someone else who might just make us strong enough to fend off the challenges from our other CL-chasing opponents. Making the CL next season should be enough to cover for the expenditure from this window and may also coerce Bale to stay (for at least another season).
 

guate

Well-Known Member
May 12, 2005
3,270
1,486
Personally I believe we now have the right squad and manager to obtain 4th at the end of the season, however I would be a far happier camper if Levy coughs up some of our savings by backing AVB allowing him to bring in this window the player he considers would definitely cement a higher finish for us.
Worst case scenario: Ade goes to the ANC, Defoe gets injured and we'll drop several places down the table.
 

TottenhamLegend

Well-Known Member
Jun 13, 2012
3,273
9,439
Since the transfer window closed, we have 37 points from 18 games.

That equates to 78 points over a whole season. Bare in mind the 3 games before that were all winnable (i.e. poor dropped points), and I see no reason why we can't get near that 37 points from our last 17 games. I'd happily take 31 points and the 70 points that would bring. History would suggest 70 points will be enough for 4th, but this year is going to be a real battle, and it will take 72/73 to be certain.
 

Yid-ol

Just-outside Edinburgh
Jan 16, 2006
31,193
19,436
Let's hope qpr can hold it now, just wish newcastle would score now
 

tototoner

Staying Alert
Mar 21, 2004
29,412
34,154
I am not too worried about Everton if I am honest

Chelsea , Arsenal and us will battle for places 3-4-5
 

marvel

Well-Known Member
Jan 18, 2011
3,475
5,873
Always good to laugh at the Chavs:

mYY0K.png
 

Mikegold

Well-Known Member
Sep 1, 2009
540
566
On a points ratio because I was bored, the table would end:

Man Utd - 94 points,
City - 81 points,
Chelsea - 72
Tottenham - 70 points
Everton - 65 points
Arsenal - 65 points (a few decimals below Everton)
West Brom - 60 Points

Which from 3rd to 6th is roughly the same points it took last year. We're 1 point better off. Anyway, thought that was decently interesting for whatever pointlessness it shows.

If we win another 8 we're joint on games won.
 

Archibald&Crooks

Aegina Expat
Admin
Feb 1, 2005
55,637
205,545
Well that's Chelsea out of the race for 4th then. Well, it is if some of the gurus who like to trot out the old cliches are to be believed anyway. After all, teams who fail to beat the bottom clubs can't expect to finish 4th..............
 

AngerManagement

Well-Known Member
May 15, 2004
12,518
2,739
great result at the bridge but a little frustrating that newcastle failed to take anything off both arsenal and everton in recent games, still hopefully they will get sucked in to a relgation scrap

On the whole even with both mersey clubs winning its a good night just to see chelsea lose at home to the bottom club and keep us safe in third until after the fa cup weekend
 

beats1

Well-Known Member
Feb 22, 2010
30,039
29,629
Had a bet on QPR to well chuffed, just pissed that Mackie didnt score or get a assist but as said in the other thread it would the tottenham way to lose to QPR, form goes out of the window for derby matches and though it isnt a proper derby match the harry factor may play a part
 

karennina

ciffirt
Nov 24, 2004
2,823
1,034
Chelsea now play every 3-4 days until Stoke away as their next PL match. In fact they've been playing week to midweek without a week's rest since 25th Nov. The match three days before Stoke is the CC semi against Swansea, so they can't play a weak side and expect to win. And Benitez will be desperate for the CC silverware to look good. Even their FA Cup 3rd round on the 5th is away against Southhampton who are in form, and Benitez won't want to lose that one straight after this one.

Plus, the match against Stoke will be on the 12th Jan, which is quite feasibly the coldest day of the year on average or something. If ever there was a visit to the Brittania which Chelsea had an unusually good chance of messing up, this is it.
 
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