Bus-Conductor
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- Oct 19, 2004
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Have a read of this fellas. Excellent piece by @jair1970 for Statsbomb that tells a pretty sorry tale. (Mods I have Jair's permission to post):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...ng-Luis-Suarez-Spurs-reveals-Ruud-Gullit.html
Holes in Tottenham
Holes in Tottenham
It was quite predictable that Stoke, a team with a reputation for tough play, should be able to roll over a typically soft-centered Tottenham side and so they did. Usually, I might just point out a few issues surrounding the dismal performance and proffer a positive solution but this week happens to coincide with a bit of research I carried out which paints a dismal picture of where Tottenham are with regard their inability to prevent chances. Amongst analytic types, this is not a new theory, i’m reminded of Colin Trainor and Paul Riley respectively highlighting and dryly remonstrating with Tottenham’s defensive issues. This plight has been a bit of an elephant in my room: I knew it was there, but tried to ignore it. Hugo Lloris has had a great season? Well, you only get that kind of swift analysis when a keeper is busy, and he sure has been.
I’m not normally drawn to location work but I’ve had a look at shooting rates inside and outside the box. This is a simple yet reasonable proxy for identifying teams that create “good chances” and has proven revealing, the in-box stuff also slightly improves on overall shot ratio with regard predictability, at least for this season. Here are the in-box shot ratios (up to May 8th):
Quickly we can identify six of the top seven clubs occupying the top six slots, which makes perfect sense. As with overall shot ratios, Man City and Liverpool look better here than their league performances indicate; their problems have to a degree revolved around conversion. Tottenham, in contrast a team that has ridden fairly high for conversion has a serious problem here. A 44% shot ratio inside the box is incredibly bad, it pegs them as being as capable of creating chances in the box at the same rate as relegation candidates. Indeed the raw numbers show that they have conceded about as many shots here as Burnley, Leicester and West Ham, with only QPR significantly exceeding that total. These are not the hallmarks of a top side.
Overall, Tottenham’s shot ratios have declined year on year, and their overall TSR of 52% is the worst they have recorded in the enlightened era (2009-10 onwards). It is actually 7% worse than Pochettino achieved with Southampton last season and is ironically, identical to Stoke’s TSR, a team that whilst widely deemed inferior, has now beaten Tottenham twice.
Andre Villas Boas was regularly castigated by fans who believed that his brand of football was sterile and non-creative. He was criticised for encouraging long range shooting and passing for the sake of passing, so apropos of nothing, here are the out-of-box shot ratios for Pochettino’s Tottenham, a team that also ranks 3rd in the league for possession:
Tottenham take a high percentage of their shots from range and struggle to create opportunities inside the box. Defensively they have failed to limit the opposition’s ability to enter the box and take shots from within. In isolation topping a shot chart might seem good, but when wedded to failing in a more important chart, it is alarming.
The similarities with the Villas Boas era are clear, as are the intransigence and the squad issues. The differences too: there is no shot dominance in 2014-15. I’m inclined to believe that the primary reason for this is systemic. On the front end, Kane is somewhat isolated in the 4-2-3-1 system and can lack support at times. In defense, the porous central midfield has been a common concern with attention slowly turning to the entire defensive unit. And the recent collapse in form is easily attributed to tiredness and a lack of rotation, but perhaps also to chickens coming home to roost? The narrow victories that characterised the mid-season have given way to draws and defeats, an inevitable by-product of a lack of dominance. Michael Caley wrote on this point last season with a case study on er… Tottenham. Both Villas Boas and Pochettino arrived with reputations as prescriptive and detailed coaches wedded to their systems and methods. Each has suffered with implementation and struggled to consistently succeed with their concepts in actual games.
That this season would be one of transition was never in doubt, and that in itself is nothing new but too many aspects of performance are currently in the bin, so much so that I would propose that improvement both underlying and in general will be a mandatory requirement set at board level next year. Any post-season performance analysis that churns out nuggets like these would likely kill off most Tottenham coaches:
- See more at: http://statsbomb.com/2015/05/holes-...d-dont-fear-the-numbers/#sthash.ebN8plj7.dpuf
Guys and Gals
I did not write this piece (though I agree with it and have alluded to some of the problems in posts). So those that have given me ratings or are thinking of rating, please find a post (there's one in here) of @jair1970 and give hime the kudos, not me, I just cut and pasted his work.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...ng-Luis-Suarez-Spurs-reveals-Ruud-Gullit.html
Holes in Tottenham
Holes in Tottenham
It was quite predictable that Stoke, a team with a reputation for tough play, should be able to roll over a typically soft-centered Tottenham side and so they did. Usually, I might just point out a few issues surrounding the dismal performance and proffer a positive solution but this week happens to coincide with a bit of research I carried out which paints a dismal picture of where Tottenham are with regard their inability to prevent chances. Amongst analytic types, this is not a new theory, i’m reminded of Colin Trainor and Paul Riley respectively highlighting and dryly remonstrating with Tottenham’s defensive issues. This plight has been a bit of an elephant in my room: I knew it was there, but tried to ignore it. Hugo Lloris has had a great season? Well, you only get that kind of swift analysis when a keeper is busy, and he sure has been.
I’m not normally drawn to location work but I’ve had a look at shooting rates inside and outside the box. This is a simple yet reasonable proxy for identifying teams that create “good chances” and has proven revealing, the in-box stuff also slightly improves on overall shot ratio with regard predictability, at least for this season. Here are the in-box shot ratios (up to May 8th):
Quickly we can identify six of the top seven clubs occupying the top six slots, which makes perfect sense. As with overall shot ratios, Man City and Liverpool look better here than their league performances indicate; their problems have to a degree revolved around conversion. Tottenham, in contrast a team that has ridden fairly high for conversion has a serious problem here. A 44% shot ratio inside the box is incredibly bad, it pegs them as being as capable of creating chances in the box at the same rate as relegation candidates. Indeed the raw numbers show that they have conceded about as many shots here as Burnley, Leicester and West Ham, with only QPR significantly exceeding that total. These are not the hallmarks of a top side.
Overall, Tottenham’s shot ratios have declined year on year, and their overall TSR of 52% is the worst they have recorded in the enlightened era (2009-10 onwards). It is actually 7% worse than Pochettino achieved with Southampton last season and is ironically, identical to Stoke’s TSR, a team that whilst widely deemed inferior, has now beaten Tottenham twice.
Andre Villas Boas was regularly castigated by fans who believed that his brand of football was sterile and non-creative. He was criticised for encouraging long range shooting and passing for the sake of passing, so apropos of nothing, here are the out-of-box shot ratios for Pochettino’s Tottenham, a team that also ranks 3rd in the league for possession:
Tottenham take a high percentage of their shots from range and struggle to create opportunities inside the box. Defensively they have failed to limit the opposition’s ability to enter the box and take shots from within. In isolation topping a shot chart might seem good, but when wedded to failing in a more important chart, it is alarming.
The similarities with the Villas Boas era are clear, as are the intransigence and the squad issues. The differences too: there is no shot dominance in 2014-15. I’m inclined to believe that the primary reason for this is systemic. On the front end, Kane is somewhat isolated in the 4-2-3-1 system and can lack support at times. In defense, the porous central midfield has been a common concern with attention slowly turning to the entire defensive unit. And the recent collapse in form is easily attributed to tiredness and a lack of rotation, but perhaps also to chickens coming home to roost? The narrow victories that characterised the mid-season have given way to draws and defeats, an inevitable by-product of a lack of dominance. Michael Caley wrote on this point last season with a case study on er… Tottenham. Both Villas Boas and Pochettino arrived with reputations as prescriptive and detailed coaches wedded to their systems and methods. Each has suffered with implementation and struggled to consistently succeed with their concepts in actual games.
That this season would be one of transition was never in doubt, and that in itself is nothing new but too many aspects of performance are currently in the bin, so much so that I would propose that improvement both underlying and in general will be a mandatory requirement set at board level next year. Any post-season performance analysis that churns out nuggets like these would likely kill off most Tottenham coaches:
- Tottenham (53) have conceded more goals that Sunderland (50) and Hull (49) and the same amount as Burnley.
- Tottenham (12) have lost only one fewer game than Sunderland (13)
- They have now conceded more shots on target (169) than they have taken (166)
- They rank 19th/20 for opposition conversion rates, no doubt powered by all those in box shots.
- See more at: http://statsbomb.com/2015/05/holes-...d-dont-fear-the-numbers/#sthash.ebN8plj7.dpuf
Guys and Gals
I did not write this piece (though I agree with it and have alluded to some of the problems in posts). So those that have given me ratings or are thinking of rating, please find a post (there's one in here) of @jair1970 and give hime the kudos, not me, I just cut and pasted his work.
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