Spurs to finish 12th!?

[gimlisbeard]

Okay so 12th might not be 4th or even 5th but at least it guarantees Premier League football next season. How did I arrive at this conclusion? Well, without a working crystal ball I've used this season's scores with last season's results for unplayed games. It's something I've done for the last few years and has proved pretty reliable at showing who's likely to do well and who's likely to get relegated. You can see the stats for Spurs and everybody else at prem38.com (and yes, that is a plug for my website but it is completely non-commercial - there aren't even any Google ads!). I'm just pleased with myself for managing to get the thing up and running at long last and hoping some of you might find it interesting.

What I find interesting about looking at the table in this way is that Newcastle (currently relegation fodder) are actually 1pt better off this season than from the same fixtures last year. Okay, that places them 11th at the end of the season but just shows that as long as they do as well in their remaining fixtures as they did last season, they'll be okay. Of course, I'm hoping we'll be taking 6 points off them this year rather than the other way round.

And how were we doing when Ramos was in charge? Well, after the Stoke debacle, the prem38 table showed us likely to finish 19th. Suddenly, 12th doesn't seem so bad!

Cheers,
GM.

 

[Stu]

Nice one, an interesting way of looking at the league table

 

[PT]

I'm going to put this in Spurs Chat where it's likely to receive a more appropriately targetted audience - and a few numpties

 

[robbiesavagehasbreasts]

What's up mid-table?

Nah, we gonna finish top10. I hope.

 

[yawa]

How on earth do newly promoted teams get points? based on the fact they wont have played nearly all the teams in the premier league last season.

 

[Tickers]

How on earth do newly promoted teams get points? based on the fact they wont have played nearly all the teams in the premier league last season.

Of course, relegation and promotion prevents precise comparison of results for the three promoted teams - Hull City, Stoke City and West Bromwich Albion. My solution to this is for these teams to inherit the results of the teams they replaced. That means that the Championship champions (West Brom) inherit the results of the "best" of the relegated teams (Reading); Stoke inherit Birmingham's results and Hull City inherit results from last season's bottom team Derby. Interestingly, despite Hull's superb start to the season (17 points better off than Derby were from the same fixtures) they are still bottom of the PREM38 table. At this stage, they need to pick-up 10 points more than Derby managed from their remaining fixtures to move out of the relegation zone.

Although that is patently ludicrously harsh on Hull.

 

[hughy]

Us 12th, and Newcastle 11th? No.

 

[oohaahedgar]

6th

 

[southcalispur]

top 6, in fact if and it is a big if, we win our next three we will be 6 or 7th i think. starts tomorrow, must win game!

 

[johnny two saints]

How do you factor in better players or dare I say it......better managers?

I'd hope that H can improve on some of the dross results we had last season in the league

 

[Lilbaz]

I'm going to put this in Spurs Chat where it's likely to receive a more appropriately targetted audience - and a few numpties

Woohooo!!! I'm a numptie :hump:

I told you I could do it ma, but you didn't believe I had it in me :razz: Go top college you said, meet a nice girl. Well you can suck my left ball bag, for I have now officially be recogniesed. The world shall crumble for the numpties are on the march.

Put that in your ear and snort it Eek

 

[Bonjour]

I'd take 12th.

 

[SpurSince57]

Although that is patently ludicrously harsh on Hull.

This is where this system falls down, because Derby were absolutely awful.

It's an inexact science, to say the least, and more inexact still in what's proving to be a pretty strange season.

 

[General Levy]

Walob

 

[tony0379]

if we carry on i dont see why we cant finish top 6

 

[Lilbaz]

Finish top 10 (aim for top 8) and win a trophy. We need to stay in Europe, top 6 is a huge ask as there are still the Villa's, Everton etc... and our start was nothing short of drastic. Please remember this run will end at some point and we are still only 1 point off bottom, but heres hoping it ends in May 09.

 

[Banjo]

We've got good results away at Chelsea and Arsenal; also home to L'pool. Now we're playing well, with more self-belief, I don't see any but the 'top four' being beyond us to beat home or away. I'm starting to think (once more) that UEFA via league position is not beyond us at all!

 

[mackay78]

While it's an interesting analysis... surely that statistical arguement (copy last year's results) would result in the league being the same shape every season? Given our bad start and finish last year (with only the middle part of the season being decent) I'd hope that, despite our bad start, we'd do better than that.

I think we're being helped this year by a league that's the tightest any of us have seen.

It would be interesting to expand the formula into recent form - so it gives a predection that's based on previous results but gives a weighting on last few games results.

Having said all that... a team can collapse in the last 5 minutes (Goooooons) or hit the bar about 70 times in the first half (poooooool) - and undermine any 'logical' prediction.

 

[Midostouch]

Two weeks ago I'd have been delighted with the prospect of 12th. Now I really think we can get 6th. In two weeks time.... who knows?

 

[gimlisbeard]

Guys, I never said it was an exact science. What it shows is how teams are doing compared to last season and right now, we're 3 points worse off than from the same fixtures last season. There is a great opportunity for us to pick up points in the next few games that we missed out on last season which should put us in a better position than last year. But, for us to be in contention for 5th/6th, the comparison with last year has to be +20, not -3. That's a lot of points to pick up but, fingers crossed, we can do it.