Taking on the top 4

[gloryglory]

For years I've clamoured for a quiet summer. The summer Comolli/Jol brought in Bent, Kaboul, Boateng etc, we needed next to no-one, and we disrupted the squad and started badly. Last summer we sold half the squad and needed a January rebuild. Both years we had done enough to show we could compete with top sides, but we messed around in the summer and came out worse.

But this year, we finally have a manager who specialises in transfers, and a squad with no chance at all of breaking into the top 4 - so why would we NOT wheeler deal? A left midfielder, a partner for Palacios, a centre back, and above all a striker or two.

 

[guate]

Some great posts on here, especially S.S.57 and Nate247 however, as much as I agree with SS57 I suspect that Nate is right and that 'Arry just won't be able to leave the cheque book alone.

QUE VIVA LOS SPURS

 

[guate]

Here's what Moyes thinks it could cost to reach the top 4:

Moyes: £100m wouldn't ensure top four finish by Soccernet staff
April 21, 2009


Although his team are likley to end the season in fourth position, Everton boss David Moyes insists even £100million would not guarantee a Champions League place. However he concedes that the heart and character of his players is getting them close.
"You could give me £100million and it might not get me any closer, who knows? The one thing we have got is big hearts and character and we want to keep improving.

Moyes' squad have stayed in London this week after the reaching the FA Cup final, and next up is a dress rehearsal of the showpiece when they face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

While Chelsea are bankrolled by Roman Abramovich, Moyes' success has been on a budget.

"We have a long way to go and it will be very hard to compete with the top boys, we know that,'' Moyes said.

"Everyone would like more money but the majority of managers in football don't work with money, so you have to be able to work without.

"We've been lucky that we've been given every penny that they could give us. As you see, if you get the right players in and they are hungry for success then it can happen.''

Moyes wants to invest this summer as this season he has suffered a number of injury setbacks in his squad, with Aiyegbeni Yakubu, Mikel Arteta and Victor Anichebe long-term casualties.

But he will be looking for players that will buy into the Everton way of working hard for success as they have done this season, with every chance of a high-placed Premier League finish to go with their FA Cup final.

"It is an achievement for the players, through adversity and injuries to several key men,'' Moyes said.

"People have come into the team and taken their chance. Not only taken their chance, but they've pushed on.

"It would be great to finish in a really good league position, that is what we are trying to do.''

Moyes feels chairman Bill Kenwright also deserves credit for their progress.

"I'm really pleased for Bill because he has put a lot of time and effort into Everton and when we look at football, of all the people that come into the game and buy clubs,'' Moyes said.

"If you are a true football supporter you should be pleased for Bill Kenwright because he has worked really hard and given everything he can.

"He's had to suffer a bit because the Everton fans are unforgiving - they want success like every other group of supporters.''

The contrast could not be greater when comparing Everton's situation to Chelsea's.

Guus Hiddink has come in and changed their results but Moyes feels it is the multi-million pound players who are ultimately responsible.

"Have Chelsea not got one of the best squads in the division?'' he said.

"You would expect those players to be where they are.

"The manager has to take credit for that. But I think it is more to do with the group of players, they have a strong squad and they are the ones that have to cross the white line and do the job.''

Moyes still has deep respect for Hiddink, and added: "I've called him on several occasions for information on Russian players and he was very good in giving that to me. His record in Europe is very good.''

 

[JimmyG2]

For years I've clamoured for a quiet summer. The summer Comolli/Jol brought in Bent, Kaboul, Boateng etc, we needed next to no-one, and we disrupted the squad and started badly. Last summer we sold half the squad and needed a January rebuild. Both years we had done enough to show we could compete with top sides, but we messed around in the summer and came out worse.

But this year, we finally have a manager who specialises in transfers, and a squad with no chance at all of breaking into the top 4 - so why would we NOT wheeler deal? A left midfielder, a partner for Palacios, a centre back, and above all a striker or two.

What are you talking about? You demonstrate quite clearly that we messed things up by our summer dealings and then go on to demand 4/5 new signings which would totally disrupt our present squad. Which incidentally is as good as we have had in years, if not better, and is showing the benefits of stability particularly in defence.
You having a laugh right?
And what on earth is a manager who specialises in transfers? You mean Harry likes to do it, but it doesnt make him any good at it.
We want some progress , yes, but trying to bridge the gap between where we are now and Champions League by wheeling and dealing in the transfer market is where we have gone wrong in the past, as you say quite rightly.

 

[SpurSince57]

And just because Aitch is a dab hand when it comes to a-wheelin' and a-dealin' and clearly enjoys it doesn't mean he is going to indulge just for the hell of it. That barrow-boy image is, I'm sure, part of a very carefully cultivated persona. I think what signings we do make will be very carefully targeted.

 

[lishiyo]

I would be very disappointed in Harry if he kept up his wheeling and dealing this summer, surely he knows that he has quality in his squad and we need stability above all else. He's done well with our current team but I'm praying he doesn't live up to his stereotype at Portsmouth, we'd prefer to develop our young players (please don't sell Bale and Gio and Taarabt harry!) rather than rejuvenate some old players' careers, and I'd be rather worried for our wage bill if we went Portsmouth's route. Even though his contract is short I hope he considers our long-term future and leaves us with a squad entering its prime rather than an aging one like Pompey's.

I also disagree that there are two tiers in the top four, I think Liverpool have looked amazing and even entertaining recently - much like the Arsenal of the past - and Rafa is a tactically astute manager who has built a hardworking team with a strong core and underrated players like Benayoun, Kuyt, Aurelio etc. They've come very close this year even with Torres and Gerrard out for quite a bit of the season, a bit more depth and a RB and a better winger than Riera and they could do it. Ars*nal are also going to be much stronger next year with Arshavin and with more of their players fit. So it's going to be much harder for everyone to break into the top 4, not impossible but it would take a lot of luck and money. I still think Man City have the best shot - get a quality manager and they'll be able to convince enough good players that they're building a team that can challenge for fourth and for trophies. After all the top 4 can't monopolize all the good players since there will be those who actually want to start rather than sit on their benches.

 

[DC_Boy]

Being serious, I posted a column two years ago about "breaking into the top four". It was full of stats. The point being that in the 1960s 9 different teams won the Div 1 title. .

hi - AFAIK it was 8 teams - from memory both man u and pool won the title twice

we should have done so too - but that's another story

though of course your point that the field was more open in the 60s than now is entirely valid

ATM the gulf between the big 4 and the rest looks as big as it's ever been - perhaps even bigger

man city are the obvious candidates to challenge their dominance, but it will take enormous amounts of money spent window after window to probably have a realistic chance - and it still might not work

it might benefit a few clubs selling to them though

see west ham with their deal on bellamy

it's a bit like when cfc were spreading cash round the prem like santa claus on a bender

we've benefited already with them helping to push fergie over the £30m mark with berbs

of course overall the inflationary effect of clubs like city and cfc is probably bad for the game, and certainly bad for us in terms of possible trophies

had cfc not won the jackpot and gone into admin/decline we might have nicked a few of their players on the cheap

as to this summer, ATM I think we need a 'good in the air' target-man type striker and a utility player to cover LB/LM

the current 4 strikers may change my mind by the end of season, but I doubt it

naturally if someone like muntari become available at a good price it will be hard for HR to resist

the key thing is to hang onto all, or nearly all at least, of our current 'first 22' players, so there's a proven squad ready to play in august - let the new ones blend in as and when

 

[davidmatzdorf]

...this year, we finally have a manager who specialises in transfers, and a squad with no chance at all of breaking into the top 4 - so why would we NOT wheeler deal? A left midfielder, a partner for Palacios, a centre back, and above all a striker or two.

You're starting from an incorrect, or at least a misleading premise, so you're drawing a conclusion that would compound the problems of the past 2-3 seasons. The wrong premise is that our "squad has no ... chance of breaking into the top 4".

The premise is wrong because it presupposes that a squad and the quality of the individual players in it are fixed entities. They aren't. They're capable of development and a team is capable of becoming more than the sum of its parts. And that is what makes winning football clubs win. I've been saying since October that we are failing to make progress because we keep shaking up the squad looking for better individual players, instead of working with the squad to make the individual players into a better team.

That's the reason why "we [should] NOT wheeler-deal" this Summer. Because it doesn't work. If you have mega-zillions like Chelsea did, when they were moving from also-rans to champions, and can simply buy 2 or 3 of the best players for every position and sit the surplus on the bench, then you can rely on raw talent - but it's also true that the best players are the best partly because they are capable of being team players and make everyone around them look good (qv. Makelele).

We aren't in that position. But we can buy excellent players and, in my view, the quality of the individual players in our squad, overall, is actually the best it has ever been in this century - better than the 2005/06 squad by a considerable margin, better than the 2006/07 squad on average, despite not having an individual genius on the Berbatov level. The gap between our players now and the top 4 clubs' players is smaller than before, not wider. But they are better teams, as were Villa and Everton until Harry addressed the perennial need for a competitive midfielder and brought back a couple of good strikers. In addition, we have an exciting generation of youth players, 1 or 2 of whom might prove to be oncoming stars.

We need to concentrate on becoming a superb team and then we will see how far this squad can take us. It might be 6th, it might be the CL and it might be a league title or a cup. Until we stop shuffling 10 out and 9 in every damned Summer, we will never know how good they can become.

EDIT: in the end, your recommended 3 or 4 transfers scarcely constitute "wheeler-dealing". But the main issue is not about whom we buy. It's about not selling off what some fans persist in calling "deadwood", usually meaning regular members of the first team squad. The key point is not to sell any of the first or second string players who have been getting games this season. Keep them all, plus all the young players, presently on loan, who have played in first team matches this season. Only sell older players who aren't playing, e.g., Rocha and Gilberto.

 

[le_magnifique]

The premise is wrong because it presupposes that a squad and the quality of the individual players in it are fixed entities. They aren't. They're capable of development and a team is capable of becoming more than the sum of its parts. And that is what makes winning football clubs win. I've been saying since October that we are failing to make progress because we keep shaking up the squad looking for better individual players, instead of working with the squad to make the individual players into a better team.

Only sell older players who aren't playing, e.g., Rocha and Gilberto.

What he said.

 

[DC_Boy]

I must say I've always disliked that term 'deadwood' with regards to the way so many football fans use it

it tends to be a very inappropriate metaphor

players that make a regular appearnce in our first 22/24, even if they don't make many prem starts are unlikely to be deadwood - we need a decent squad (or better) for top 6 and a good chance of a cup

 

[JimmyG2]

Harry has done us proud and to be fair the team have responded well and are on an excellent run of results and performance.
Build on it don't demolish it or we will enter another decade, or more, of disappointment and frustration.

 

[JoeT]

Sorry D.M. but I just have to disagree with your last post in response to that of 'gloryglory'. He stated that Spurs current team do not have a chance of finishing in the 'top 4'....to which you took exception. Your point was that players are not fixed entities - which means that they, individually and as a team - are capable of improvement. Nothing wrong with that, but do you think our current squad can improve to the point of being as good as the 'top 4'? I think not.....at least not without a few additional players, (which is really what 'gloryglory' was saying.)

 

[fatspur]

Most of the success at five of the top six has been based on sticking with the manager.

cause and effect. clubs are likely to stick with the manager if they are consistently in the top 4. think how many managers Manure sacked while they were in the wilderness in the 70's. How long did Rioch last at the scum? Would Rafa still be there if they'd got however many points it was we got int the first 8 games? (can somebody help me, I really don't remember!)

 

[davidmatzdorf]

...do you think our current squad can improve to the point of being as good as the 'top 4'? I think not.....at least not without a few additional players...

My underlying point is that you and I have no fucking idea, because we've never given the squad even half a year to settle down and form a team.

We have a squad packed wth players who have just as enviable international reputations as many of the players from the "top 4". This includes exciting young players like Huddlestone and Lennon, as well as more established international players like Modric and Corluka.

Who amongst us can say whether these players, if they were coached properly, are as good as the players who play for Man U and Liverpool?

The answer - and I'm not brooking any argument here - is that we don't know. So many fans draw snap conclusions about an individual player's quality - or lack of it - based on their performances in an ill-fitting team under an ever-changing management. It's all bullshit. You and I have not a clue whether Modric/Hudd/Lennon/BAE/Hutton/Palacios/etc. can be as good as their Liverpool or Man U counterparts, because we've never seen them playing in a well-coached team.

Do you and I know whether players who disappoint are failing because they aren't good enough or because they aren't coached properly? No we don't, because our squad has had a new set of coaches, with a new philosophy, every 18 months.

So for me, the answer is to find out: keep things as they are, coach the players and find out who is up to the standard. Then replace the others - in a year or two. Not now.

If that results in a top 4 finish next season, great. If it doesn't, that proves precisely nothing. Keep going, keep coaching, fill a couple of gaps in the squad and see how we progress. Don't sign a batch of "stars" in the hope of immediately winning the league. It won't work.

 

[davidmatzdorf]

cause and effect. clubs are likely to stick with the manager if they are consistently in the top 4. think how many managers Manure sacked while they were in the wilderness in the 70's. How long did Rioch last at the scum? Would Rafa still be there if they'd got however many points it was we got int the first 8 games? (can somebody help me, I really don't remember!)

No, that's false. Everton stuck with Moyes when they had a 'mare of season a few years ago and are now reaping the benefits. Villa chopped and changed managers every couple of years for ages and got nowhere. Then they appointed O'Neill, bore with him for a year or two and are now doing well. Bolton's period of achievement corresponded precisely with their period of patience with Sam Allardyce. Look what happened to Charlton when Curbishley left. Man U famously stuck with Ferguson when they were nearly relegated.

The evidence is overwhelming. If you appoint a talented manager, you will do better if you let him work through his period of non-achievement to get to his period of success. If you sack the manager every 18 months, you will achieve fuck-all forever.

 

[DC_Boy]

It's a difficult one - this manager biz

it's true that man u famously persevered with fergie (tho it was a close call) - but I don't remember fergie in the early years having the sort of terrible start that did for JR - and I'm not sure he even had as bad a start as what did for jol

the jol one, had of course complicating factors like the 'who bought what' 'did he go for the Toon job?' etc etc - which are all well-rehearsed and don't need repeating here

pool got rid of houllier who was more successful than any spurs manager since 'Sir Bill'

cfc dumped ranieri who also won a fair few trophies

they also got rid of mourinho (most cfc fans would say bad move I think) and scolari (most cfc fans would say good move I think)

you win some - you lose some

everton have done well in keeping moyes - but we have to remember neither he or MON have won anything - for all our chopping and changing we have a trophy in the cabinet since moyes arrived at toffees and o'neill at villa - they don't

this may change in may for moyes - it may not

I thought at the time it was right to get rid of jol and ditto jr -

let's hope HR can avoid the sort of poor start that engenders unrest in the spurs camp -


I think a poor start like jol he could ride out next season - a terrible start like jr - who knows

 

[SpurSince57]

I'm completely with David on this. We Spurs fans have a very bad habit of writing off players, frequently only months after lauding them as some kind of new messiah (or alternatively, in the case of a certain Darren Bent, before they've even kicked a ball for us). Remember how Assou-Ekotto got wild plaudits for his performances in the 2006 pre-season games, but was being roundly rubbished come October? His Spurs career was widely deemed to be over, yet now he's deservedly a runaway winner in the Most Improved Player poll, and it's by no means an exaggeration to suggest he's currently one of the best LBs in the league. By contrast, poor Gareth Bale has gone from hero to zero in the eyes of many. And wasn't Aaron Lennon being called a busted flush not so very long ago?

Jol got the bum's rush mainly, we are led to believe, because it was considered that we'd assembled a squad capable of mounting a serious challenge to the Sky Four's dominance, but not with him in charge. You can and will take 'ITK' as you please, but we had an awful lot claiming that Ramos believed hardly any of them were up to the job, and subsequent events suggest that there was more than a mite of truth in this. And of course there were the cries of 'When Juande gets his own squad together' on here. Well, he did, and we all know what happened, don't we? Whilst Modric, Corluka, Gomes and Woodgate have undoubtedly improved the team no end, the jury's still out on Pavlyuchenko, and appears to have delivered its verdict on Bentley and buggered off home long since. There must have been doubts over Hutton for us to sign Corluka, and for all his potential dos Santos hasn't yet looked the full ticket in first-class competitive games, which is why he's out on loan. Gunter was always one for the future, and seems to have his head screwed on tightly enough to accept that. With the exception of New Added Palacios, the majority of the current first-choice XI remains very much pre-Ramos, and in the case of Keane, Defoe and King, pre-Jol.

At the start of the season, despite the departure of Berbatov and Keane, we had arguably the most talented assemblage of players since 1987, certainly far superior to 2005-2006 in just about every department bar the strikers and Carrick, yet it was an inferior unit to the 2005-2006 team until recently. That we can look forward to a visit to OT on Saturday with a realistic hope of grabbing a point, and at worst real confidence that we'll give them a game and not get played off the park, is testament to that.

And as David says, if we don't work with the potential that we have, we simply don't know what it can achieve. It drives me nuts when I see comments claiming that, say, O'Hara and Huddlestone will never improve. Have we written off Bale now? Bentley may be the biggest disappointment since Rebrov, but surely the player we thought we'd signed is hiding in there somewhere? After a decent summer break and a pre-season, will Pav start to look the £14m business on a consistent basis? Can we get Bent to do more than chase around a lot and score goals? Not to mention the likes of Bostock, Parrett and Mason waiting in the wings. Do we actually need to splurge more improbable quantities of money in search of the quick fix?

 

[fatspur]

No, that's false. Everton stuck with Moyes when they had a 'mare of season a few years ago and are now reaping the benefits. Villa chopped and changed managers every couple of years for ages and got nowhere. Then they appointed O'Neill, bore with him for a year or two and are now doing well. Bolton's period of achievement corresponded precisely with their period of patience with Sam Allardyce. Look what happened to Charlton when Curbishley left. Man U famously stuck with Ferguson when they were nearly relegated.

The evidence is overwhelming. If you appoint a talented manager, you will do better if you let him work through his period of non-achievement to get to his period of success. If you sack the manager every 18 months, you will achieve fuck-all forever.

I don't disagree with your second paragraph, but am simply stating that it is too simplistic to say that if you stick with your manager you will achieve. What is undeniable is that if you are successful you are more likely to stick with your manager (except CFC and most regret Mourinho going). I would also agree that it is very much more difficult to achieve if you keep chopping and changing. However I would suggest that practically no club would stand by a relatively new manager who ammassed 2 points from their first 8 games when the expectation was to be top 6 at least. I would love Spurs to have a longstanding manager, but that will only happen when the manager earns the loyalty of the board through the consistency of his team

 

[davidmatzdorf]

I don't disagree with your second paragraph, but am simply stating that it is too simplistic to say that if you stick with your manager you will achieve.

Yes, of course, but I don't think anyone suggested that.

What is undeniable is that if you are successful you are more likely to stick with your manager (except CFC and most regret Mourinho going). I would also agree that it is very much more difficult to achieve if you keep chopping and changing.

Yes again - and that's what was being said.

However I would suggest that practically no club would stand by a relatively new manager who amassed 2 points from their first 8 games when the expectation was to be top 6 at least. I would love Spurs to have a longstanding manager, but that will only happen when the manager earns the loyalty of the board through the consistency of his team

That doesn't apply to Jol, nor to Hoddle, nor to Gross, nor to Francis. None of them achieved 2 points from 8 matches and none of them (except Jol, after two 5th place finishes engineered by him) were burdened by expectations of a top 6 finish.

It's not just the removal of Ramos - Spurs are serial manager-sackers. I think Jol, in particular, had done enough to "earn the loyalty of the board through the consistency of his team".

 

[fatspur]

That doesn't apply to Jol, nor to Hoddle, nor to Gross, nor to Francis. None of them achieved 2 points from 8 matches and none of them (except Jol, after two 5th place finishes engineered by him) were burdened by expectations of a top 6 finish.

It's not just the removal of Ramos - Spurs are serial manager-sackers. I think Jol, in particular, had done enough to "earn the loyalty of the board through the consistency of his team".

I agree with you 100% - Spurs have been too quick to sack certain managers, but I think they are not alone in this: in fact it is exceptional (Moyes at Everton, as you say, is a good example) for clubs to stick by a manager during a prolonged bad patch. But it is untested how the really successful clubs would deal with a prolonged bad patch, because they simply haven't had them! OK so United were slow to get started under Ferguson, but it is widely accepted that he was one match away from a sacking, and he certainly did not have a great act to follow

I agree Jol in particular had earned loyalty; I simply think that the board saw Ramos as a step up in the same way as Chelsea saw Mourinho as a step up from Ranieri. Results clearly suggested otherwise in Spurs' case