The 667 Report part II plus Rolling Form Guide

BoringOldFan

It's better to burn out than to fade away...
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Sep 20, 2005
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Thread starter #1
How It Works

Ignoring the old cliche of taking it one game at a time, I look at the season in two lots of 6, 6 and 7 games. At the end of each batch I compare this season's results with the same games last season. The promoted teams are paired with last season's relegated teams.

The Story So Far…

It was a poor start to the season, with only four points coming from the first six games, compared to five last season. Surely we could improve on that in the next half dozen matches? Read this and weep, people…

Now Read On…

Despite that fact that we only had a total of 7 from a possible 18 points to beat, we failed again with four, all coming from draws. We started off by dropping two points by allowing last season’s home win over Villa turn into a draw – and we were lucky to get that. But we clawed our way back to level pegging with away draws at Bolton and Liverpool, where we had lost last season.

We managed to equal our 1-3 loss at Newcastle with another one this season, dropped another point by losing at home to Blackburn, and finished this sequence with two more points dropped away at Boro. Some may note that Martin Jol was one point down on last season after 10 games, while Wendy Ramos is already two points behind after his first one!

The Next Batch

As it’s the 667 Report, the third batch has seven games. And last season we got 14 from a possible 18 points from them. Match that, Wendy! We had wins against Wigan (H), West Ham (A), Birmingham (H) and Manchester City (H), a draw at Portsmouth (A), a loss at Arsenal (A) and home win over Fulham. Frankly I think we’ll struggle to get into double figures this time.

The Rolling Form Guide

The RFG graphs the number of points won from the previous 6 games. For completeness, the opening game shows the last 6 games from last season. As you can see, we ended on a high, getting 12 from a possible 18 points which equates to a Champions League place. An average of 2 points per game equals 76 points over a season, which should be enough for top four.



But as the graph shows, we pissed that away as last season’s good form was replaced by our current misery. Even the slight upward turn after game 6 (Arsenal at home) was only due to previous losses being replaced by the Bolton, Villa and Liverpool draws. This got us up to 6 points, which from 6 games means 38 over a season and pretty much certain relegation.

We have since slumped down to a level where Points Are Not Tottenham’s Strength (PANTS) and go into the home game against Wigan with only four points from the previous six games.

By way of comparison, we went into our 13th game last season with 11 points from the previous six games. After a rocky start ending in a 0-3 loss at Liverpool, we went on a bit of a run, losing only two in the next 12 games.

From our current position, to get 68 points (good enough for a CL place last season) we would have to average over 13 points in any 6-game sequence between now and the end of the season. If a UEFA Cup place is available for 55 points, we would need to average 11 points per 6-game sequence.

I wouuld say neither scenario is likely.

For confidential emotional support, call The Samaritans on 08457 90 90 90.
 

miles_64

If Carlsberg did Members
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Sep 10, 2004
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#2
Cheers BoF - interesting yet at the same time rather depressing. Like the essay I'm just about to start on...
 

jparker247

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Feb 21, 2007
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#5
what we need is a big win on sunday against wigan and it is a great oppertunity sinse they've just lost their manager and have lost their last 6 games. hopefully with a good win 2moro that will give everyone a boost and get our season back on track. i would fancy giving routledge or tarabt a chance to inject some energy and pace into the team. it's not as if anybosy apart from keane and malbranque is playing so well ramos cant drop them.
 

JonnySpurs

SC Veteran
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Jun 4, 2004
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#6
Jesus christ fellas, this is all a bit doom and gloom. Who's to say that we wont get some serious points from our next 7 games. The majority of the last 6 games were under Jol and featured the team that was rock bottom on confidence and with SERIOUS issues at the back, no to mention injuries. I'm pretty sure by this time last year we had King back and the majority of players fit and confident. Ramos IS going to turn this season around, I am absolutely sure of it!
 

birdm

New Member
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Sep 1, 2005
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#7
Interesting post but lets not get too bogged down with previous results. I am suprised you left out last seasons cumulative points tally so we could see visually how we compare to last season.

I think with a new manager in you need to draw a line under last season and concentrate on now. I would like to see analysis the teams who are in the eufa mix, what games they may win lose or draw compared to ours.
 

gloryglory

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Oct 19, 2004
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#8
So to distil your article:

We've played 12 games. In the corresponding 12 games last year, we took 12 points, which sounds pretty miserable - yet we still came 5th.

This year we have 8 points from 12 - obviously pretty rubbish, but not all that far off last season's form. So according to the logic of your analysis, our form is comparable to last year, and so we have every chance of competing for Europe.

Only trouble is - most of the opportunities to pick up extra points have already passed.
 

BoringOldFan

It's better to burn out than to fade away...
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Thread starter #9
So to distil your article:

We've played 12 games. In the corresponding 12 games last year, we took 12 points, which sounds pretty miserable - yet we still came 5th.

This year we have 8 points from 12 - obviously pretty rubbish, but not all that far off last season's form. So according to the logic of your analysis, our form is comparable to last year, and so we have every chance of competing for Europe.

Only trouble is - most of the opportunities to pick up extra points have already passed.
The points are right but you over-simplify the form. Because a series of difficult games have come in the first 12, the effect of this has been to create low confidence. The form guide shows we are at sub-relegation level at the moment.

Last season we breezed past Wigan having lost only one of the previous 14 games in all competitions. Certainly not the case today that we go into the match on any kind of good run.
 
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