The Daily ITK Discussion Thread 7th August

[legospur83]

SkyBet now running odds of 1/7 on any member of SC being sectioned by Thursday 17:01 BST

I like those odds.

 

[lazypoodle]

i dont get how levy is ready and willing to spend and it's poch putting the brakes on when we apparently baulked at the zaha fee despite being told that poch rates him as the best winger in the league

So Levy is a numbers guy, and there is a prevailing thought that the transfer market is in a bubble, inspired in large part by the massive Neymar sale.

This is my theory, so take it with a big salt mine of salt. Many are trying to determine if this is the new normal, or just a volatile moment in the market. If it is a volatile moment in the market, anyone who buys big will be holding onto a player that they won't be able to get rid of in the future without taking a significant loss. If Levy has counseled Poch that he suspects this is the case, this is what is causing the market paralysis, and what keeps the club from valuing a player at say, £80m just because the current market suggests it, when historical market information supports only say, £40m. If they buy Zaha, or Kovacic, or someone of that nature for a monster fee, and then in a year or two the market normalizes, they will be left eating a massive loss on the player which is bad for the long-term health of the club, especially a club with a new stadium to pay off.

If Poch thinks, "well, I have a long-term deal and this money can all sit in a war chest for next window and then I can spend even more" then the right approach is to seek for value and be very conservative in the window. In essence, he may be saying a Zaha now is not worth two Zahas two years from now.

In my view, the safe money is on player swaps, like the Alderweireld-Martial deal so many of us wish could be brokered. Such a deal hides much of the financial risks in the marketplace by exchanging like-for-like. Even if player fees drop, both were equitable to exchange and the relative fee add-on will be minimal.

Regardless, the ITK has been very helpful this window in keeping me sane. If we only get one in and it's a Grealish for £20-25m, I will assume it means everyone is paralyzed by the current market conditions, and the bigger spenders will end up losing value for their money in the mid- to long-term future. I was really hopeful about Zaha and not shocked to see the deal is dead. I know we are all clamoring for any signing at this point, so let's hope the club can deliver on that much at least, or else it is going to be a really ugly way to open a new stadium.

 

[hutchiniho]

Anyone else just really fucking depressed with that news?

At least we don't have to stay up till after 11/12pm to see if we've squeezed in a deadline deal this window!

Every cloud and all that

 

[Scott Spur]

I think the point is that igijedi has previously ONLY posted ITK in relation to imminent announcements (signings, contracts, new kits etc.) - ie stuff that has already happened but not yet been announced. I might be wrong, but I don't think he's ever posted ITK about ongoing/future transfers before.

I can’t disagree, he usually does. But this time he didn’t and was quite specific about the wider picture.

 

[tiger666]

At least we don't have to stay up till after 11/12pm to see if we've squeezed in a deadline deal this window!

Every cloud and all that

True. The window shuts at 5pm.

 

[Clamour_Kid]

So Levy is a numbers guy, and there is a prevailing thought that the transfer market is in a bubble, inspired in large part by the massive Neymar sale.

This is my theory, so take it with a big salt mine of salt. Many are trying to determine if this is the new normal, or just a volatile moment in the market. If it is a volatile moment in the market, anyone who buys big will be holding onto a player that they won't be able to get rid of in the future without taking a significant loss. If Levy has counseled Poch that he suspects this is the case, this is what is causing the market paralysis, and what keeps the club from valuing a player at say, £80m just because the current market suggests it, when historical market information supports only say, £40m. If they buy Zaha, or Kovacic, or someone of that nature for a monster fee, and then in a year or two the market normalizes, they will be left eating a massive loss on the player which is bad for the long-term health of the club, especially a club with a new stadium to pay off.

If Poch thinks, "well, I have a long-term deal and this money can all sit in a war chest for next window and then I can spend even more" then the right approach is to seek for value and be very conservative in the window. In essence, he may be saying a Zaha now is not worth two Zahas two years from now.

In my view, the safe money is on player swaps, like the Alderweireld-Martial deal so many of us wish could be brokered. Such a deal hides much of the financial risks in the marketplace by exchanging like-for-like. Even if player fees drop, both were equitable to exchange and the relative fee add-on will be minimal.

Regardless, the ITK has been very helpful this window in keeping me sane. If we only get one in and it's a Grealish for £20-25m, I will assume it means everyone is paralyzed by the current market conditions, and the bigger spenders will end up losing value for their money in the mid- to long-term future. I was really hopeful about Zaha and not shocked to see the deal is dead. I know we are all clamoring for any signing at this point, so let's hope the club can deliver on that much at least, or else it is going to be a really ugly way to open a new stadium.

Agree, but you also forget the stupid, stupid decision to end the transfer window early in a world cup year that has scuppered our sell before we buy strategy,

 

[jonnboy]

What’s the point in scouting players at the end of a season , when you know full well that your not going to pay till the last few days of the window . By then most of the top targets you were after are gone. So we shop for C, D or even E option , just very frustrating.
COYS ??

 

[sausage]

Are you suggesting Poch forgot he’d signed Moura?

No, more that his opinion of him changed now he's had a full pre-season. He might be much more of an athlete fully fit

 

[mil1lion]

I love Igi I really do but I do wish he would have went with 'We might sign 3 players'
That way everyone would read it as 'we're 100% signing 3 players'. At least this place would be buzzing instead.

 

[lazypoodle]

Agree, but you also forget the stupid, stupid decision to end the transfer window early in a world cup year that has scuppered our sell before we buy strategy,

I wonder about that as well - I wonder if long-term this is something Levy wants, and this was the chance politically to pounce on pushing it through now, knowing in the future such an opportunity may not arise again.

Either way, this was most assuredly the worst possible time for the club to have this new deadline in place.

 

[dtxspurs]

I love Igi I really do but I do wish he would have went with 'We might sign 3 players'
That way everyone would read it as 'we're 100% signing 3 players'. At least this place would be buzzing instead.

We've been hearing for weeks it would likely be 3, would be shocked to see it happen at this point.

 

[crokey]

One!?.. yeah, that’s why I paid so much extra for my season ticket.

If you're not happy with our team then I'll take it off your hand for full value mate

 

[luptic]

The fall out on here over the next two days is going to mad, it always is when we are trying to tie down players at the end of the window.

 

[mil1lion]

We've been hearing for weeks it would likely be 3, would be shocked to see it happen at this point.

But still, 'might' be

 

[freeeki]

Lots of Disgruntleds from Tumbridge Wells out in force, together with Fewmins from St. Albans.

Let's save the pitchforks for 48 hours' time shall we? Please?

We all know all of you would do a better job. We all know you've played at least two or three different football games and it's worked on those so why shouldn't it work in real life. We all know you know 40 times more than multi-millionaire successful businesspeople.

But can you please tell us in 48 hours' time? When it's actually come to pass?

It’s not that we’d do a better job.

It’s that every other Premier League club has managed to do a better job thus far, many of them far less attractive prospects to potential signings than us.

For the £100K a week Levy pays himself we have every right to demand better.

 

[Deleted member 27995]

Is it okay to pin what remaining hopes I have on hearing something positive from our other ITK? (I'm going to anyway)

 

[Lily White Lady]

I can only assume that Poch would rather not spend at all if Levy is unable to secure first choice options - in doing so avoiding a repeat of this window in the future where we are needing to shift players that are no longer needed before bringing in new signings. After all, it is what ITK have been saying all summer, it was never about the money, simply about having to many players on the wage bill.

That almost makes sense. Until you remember we could have got Zaha according to a lot of the ITK's. Poch has coveted him since he arrived. This is the window it looks like he'll move. Most of the ITKs reported he wanted us and Poch, agent wanted us. Price didn't seem a huge issue. Then all of a sudden he's not out first choice and the whole HG thing was thrown in. I just can't believe that Poch would have told Levy to pocket his chequebook if we could have got Zaha. Doesn't feel right. Something else must be going on. Hope the ITKs can shed some light when the window shuts and the dust settles.

Spoiler: CAVEAT

Unless he is 'the one' in which case ignore the above!

 

[dtxspurs]

But still, 'might' be

It might be 25 players, what's the point of posting it if in their educated opinion it isn't true.

 

[aussie spur]

I inferred nothing... I merely suggested... .

That's pretty similar. Of course stuff can change, but he said this window, which goes beyond the usual what's coming up next stuff he posts. If anything it is more concerning that his source would express a view on that, esp this close to the end.

 

[Finchyid]

I love Igi I really do but I do wish he would have went with 'We might sign 3 players'
That way everyone would read it as 'we're 100% signing 3 players'. At least this place would be buzzing instead.

I somehow doubt that. ‘Might’ would still be questioned and it would be people guesssing which 3 it is and not being happy with that