The Race to the Title

[Lighty64]

Leicester seems to have slipped a gear but have been able to grind out results, so its possible they might lose a game or too

Unfortunately, the worrying part for us is that our performance have been bad in the last 2 games. We dont look like we are capable of exploiting any slipup from Leicester

have our performances been bad, or have our 2 nearest clubs in miles raised their game more, worked harder than they have, and made it very difficult for us in the process to play the way we have been. also it might not of helped with the weather that we played these last 2 games in, both have been in driving rain, and the one at Wet Spam wasn't the best of surfaces which might of taken its toll due to the amount of games we have played this season.

out of our last 9 games we have 2 more games where the ops use a lot of energy in games, that compares to us 1, Bournemouth 2 Liverpool. the work rate in the other 7 will not be as hard IMHO

 

[JollyHappy]

If we take Leicester's form over the season it means they wil roughly win 5, draw 3 and lose 1 of their remaining 9 games. That's 9 dropped points, we only have to make up 5 on that form (as if we do we are almost guaranteed to finish above on GD considering we are already ahead)

That means we have 4 dropped points available (7 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) if Leicester remain on their season-long form, just incredibly unlikely for us to win from that. Any upturn in form for Leicester and it is party over, any downswing and we have a small chance.

Totally agree with your analysis. One good thing is that Arse have to win 8 out of 9 or Man City 9 out of 10 to catch Leicester and so at present we are definitely 2nd favourites. But I can't see Leicester doing worse than picking up 17 or 18 points from their last games.

 

[mil1lion]

I hate that people try and predict what is going to happen in the remaining fixtures. If the past couple of seasons have taught us anything it's that the Premier League is the most competitive in Europe. I really think people are looking far too much into who plays who in the next 9 games. Football is largely about momentum, one unexpected loss can hurt you just as one unexpected win can push you on. We'll see how things go game by game.

 

[Larryjanta]

Leicester have West Ham, Man United, Everton and Chelsea as 4 of their final 5 games. It is not inconceivable that they could drop points in all 4 of those. If we can get to the final 3 games within one win, I'd make us favourites.

 

[StartingPrice]

But they do. And they have no cup games. Can you imagine how cocky we would be with a 5 point lead, there games and no other cup games. Jeez it would be wrapped up

Jaysus wept!

My issue isn't with you saying that subjectively you believe they have an easier run-in, it is with you stating they have a MUCH easier run in, and as though it were an objective fact - that is why I emphasised that part with bigger text and in bold.

It is not about them being favourites, I have already said, a few pages back, that they went form being narrow favourites before our ArseAnal game to clear favourites after their Watford game:

The Race to the Title

I know they have no cup games - you don't need to state it twice. That gives them a slight advantage - it does not mean that all of their remaining fixtures are inherently impossible for them to lose. Indeed, it is absolutely irrelevant for many of their fixtures. For instance, others, including @Lighty64 have made the point that bottom feeder clubs in relegation battles who are prepared to employ tactics that will not suit Leicester's core way of playing (sit deep, soak up pressure, hit quickly on the break). How many of these clubs are left in cup competitions? None of them are in Europe for a start! So, for most of their games the fact that they don't have cup games will have no bearing whatsoever on whether it is possible for them to lose those games or not - and that is really what we are talking about.

In your post, above, your sole viable argument is that they don't have cup games - which has little bearing on the potential for defeat in most of their remaining fixtures. On paper, our two easiest remaining fixtures are after the Dortmund games, and we may be out of the EL after them.

If we work from the top (thus making this a bit simplistic, but at least trying for objectivity rather than just stating it is much easier or whatever):

Leicester's hardest remaining game is against West Ham at home, as they are fifth. Our hardest remaining game is United, at home because they are sixth. Therefore that is one game easier for us, as West Ham are higher in the good half of the table than United.

Leicester's next hardest game is away to United, as they are sixth. Our next hardest game is Liverpool away as they are seventh. Therefore that is another game easier for us, as United are higher in the good half of the table than Liverpool.

If we then work from the bottom: Leicester's easiest remaining game is Newcastle at home. Our easiest remaining game is Villa, away. Therefore that is another easier game for us, as Villa are lower in the bad half of the table than Newcastle. I would weight it slightly closer as we are away to Villa whereas Leicester are at home to Newcastle, but Villa are cast adrift at the bottom and look to have stopped trying, whereas Newcastle still have a glimmer of hope of survival and so will be fighting much harder.

Leicester's next easiest game is away to Sunderland who are seventeenth. Our next easiest game is away to Newcastle who are nineteenth. Therefore that is another easier game for us, as Newcastle are lower in the bad half of the table than Sunderland (not to mention a Big Sam team fighting for survival at home are going to employ exactly the tactics to stifle Leicester).

We both play Chelsea away and Southampton home - so we will scrub them.

Can you see what I have done here: six games, four easier for us technically, and two equal. That only leaves three games. So if four games are easier for us and two are neutral, that only leaves three games to even debate the relative difficulty of, three is not a higher number than four and therefore they can't have more easier games than us.

They have a slight advantage by not being involved in any cups, and they are clear favourites. They may have a slightly easier run-in than us, subjectively, but they just plain do not have a MUCH EASIER run-in than us - as I have just shown, objectively.

 

[NEVILLEB]

I'll be very happy with top 4.

Given that we've only got 1 striker that will be a great achievement.

But lets hope the pressure mounts on the teams around us.

 

[Good Doctor M]

The premier league is clearly broken this year and realisticly making predictions is a fools errand. Let's win our next two league games and see what an extra 6 points does for us. That's all there is to it really. But I do think we need to win those two games. Anything else and we're not looking up anymore.

Leicester drew with Villa for heavens sake... that tells you everything about this league.

We just have to see how it pans out. Anything... ANYTHING is still possible, including a Leicester capitulation or an Arsenal or City romp to victory.

 

[Spurger King]

I have a really bad fucking feeling about what could happen for the rest of the season.

If we lose the next game I can see what I think might happen, a reality.

God im pessimistic.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say your nightmare scenario would be for us to lose confidence, drop a lot of points, and end up losing a CL spot to West Ham.

I really wouldn't worry. Next up is Villa which is as good an opportunity as possible for getting a confidence-building high scoring win. Then Bournemouth at home.

West Ham still have Chelsea, United, Arsenal, Leicester, and Stoke away. With our goal difference giving us a 7 point lead over them, I really can't see us dropping 7 points more than them, or 9 points more than United/Liverpool.

Even if Spam do well in those games, we're more likely to be the team that benefits the most. At least one of Leicester, Arsenal, and Spam are guaranteed to drop points in the three games. Potentially all three teams could drop points (which would obviously mean Spam dropping 6 points in total).

It's possible that an in-form Spam could not only secure our CL qualification, but even hand us the title! Just imagine if Spam beating Leicester ends up being the decisive result that wins us the Prem!

 

[Pimp_Spur]

Let's put everything into perspective. From our last 8 games we have taken 19 points. That is a bloody good return. I think like me a few people are downbeat because we lost to the pikeys and drew with the scum when we should of won.

But the bigger picture tells me we have been brilliant over the last 9 games. The gap to Leicester is only a 2 game swing and there are many twists and turns yet to come.

Our next 2 games will give us an indication on whether or not we have the appetite to win the league / finish top 4 / bottle it altogether

 

[Qualsonic]

• No Premier League side has scored more goals from corners this season than Crystal Palace (10) - level with Spurs.

From BBC

Who'd have thought?

 

[riggi]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say your nightmare scenario would be for us to lose confidence, drop a lot of points, and end up losing a CL spot to West Ham.

I really wouldn't worry. Next up is Villa which is as good an opportunity as possible for getting a confidence-building high scoring win. Then Bournemouth at home.

West Ham still have Chelsea, United, Arsenal, Leicester, and Stoke away. With our goal difference giving us a 7 point lead over them, I really can't see us dropping 7 points more than them, or 9 points more than United/Liverpool.

Even if Spam do well in those games, we're more likely to be the team that benefits the most. At least one of Leicester, Arsenal, and Spam are guaranteed to drop points in the three games. Potentially all three teams could drop points (which would obviously mean Spam dropping 6 points in total).

It's possible that an in-form Spam could not only secure our CL qualification, but even hand us the title! Just imagine if Spam beating Leicester ends up being the decisive result that wins us the Prem!

Get out my mind!!!

 

[StartingPrice]

The premier league is clearly broken this year and realisticly making predictions is a fools errand. Let's win our next two league games and see what an extra 6 points does for us. That's all there is to it really. But I do think we need to win those two games. Anything else and we're not looking up anymore.

Leicester drew with Villa for heavens sake... that tells you everything about this league.

We just have to see how it pans out. Anything... ANYTHING is still possible, including a Leicester capitulation or an Arsenal or City romp to victory.

Funnily enough, I agree with you

Just wish folk would stop making up spurious claims that our rivals all have much easier games than us.

We should treat it as one game at a time, look to win every game, and see where it takes us...and that is exactly how I would expect Poch to school the players.

 

[Mr Pink]

Just noticed we're on three MNF's in a row!

Stoke away, West Brom home and Chelsea away.

 

[Spurger King]

Funnily enough, I agree with you

Just wish folk would stop making up spurious claims that our rivals all have much easier games than us.

We should treat it as one game at a time, look to win every game, and see where it takes us...and that is exactly how I would expect Poch to school the players.

I don't see how people can look at Leicester's games and say they have by far and away the easiest run-in. Like us they have 4 games where dropping points wouldn't be a shock, with the others being games we would both be favourites to win.

Arsenal's is relatively easy, but they still have three tough away games against Everton, West Ham, and Oil Money.

Oil Money have to play United, Chelsea, and Arsenal (away to Southampton won't be easy either).

United (let's include them for laughs) have the most difficult run-in, with Oil Money, Everton, us, Spam, and Leicester.

We have 5 games we should win (obviously whether we do is another issue), then United at home (which we should win), Stoke away (difficult but winnable), and both Liverpool and Chelsea away.

On paper the games against Liverpool and Chelsea look very difficult (and I've predicted that we'll lose both), but considering our away form, and the fact that we tend to play better against the more attacking teams, we are more than capable of doing well in those matches.

 

[maltahotspur]

Just noticed we're on three MNF's in a row!

Stoke away, West Brom home and Chelsea away.

That is not bad at all for us. It certainly helps towards our recovery when they happen to fall during our EL fixtures weeks. If of course we overcome Borussia Dortmund, which is a tough ask indeed !

 

[millsey]

Jaysus wept!

My issue isn't with you saying that subjectively you believe they have an easier run-in, it is with you stating they have a MUCH easier run in, and as though it were an objective fact - that is why I emphasised that part with bigger text and in bold.

It is not about them being favourites, I have already said, a few pages back, that they went form being narrow favourites before our ArseAnal game to clear favourites after their Watford game:

The Race to the Title

I know they have no cup games - you don't need to state it twice. That gives them a slight advantage - it does not mean that all of their remaining fixtures are inherently impossible for them to lose. Indeed, it is absolutely irrelevant for many of their fixtures. For instance, others, including @Lighty64 have made the point that bottom feeder clubs in relegation battles who are prepared to employ tactics that will not suit Leicester's core way of playing (sit deep, soak up pressure, hit quickly on the break). How many of these clubs are left in cup competitions? None of them are in Europe for a start! So, for most of their games the fact that they don't have cup games will have no bearing whatsoever on whether it is possible for them to lose those games or not - and that is really what we are talking about.

In your post, above, your sole viable argument is that they don't have cup games - which has little bearing on the potential for defeat in most of their remaining fixtures. On paper, our two easiest remaining fixtures are after the Dortmund games, and we may be out of the EL after them.

If we work from the top (thus making this a bit simplistic, but at least trying for objectivity rather than just stating it is much easier or whatever):

Leicester's hardest remaining game is against West Ham at home, as they are fifth. Our hardest remaining game is United, at home because they are sixth. Therefore that is one game easier for us, as West Ham are higher in the good half of the table than United.

Leicester's next hardest game is away to United, as they are sixth. Our next hardest game is Liverpool away as they are seventh. Therefore that is another game easier for us, as United are higher in the good half of the table than Liverpool.

If we then work from the bottom: Leicester's easiest remaining game is Newcastle at home. Our easiest remaining game is Villa, away. Therefore that is another easier game for us, as Villa are lower in the bad half of the table than Newcastle. I would weight it slightly closer as we are away to Villa whereas Leicester are at home to Newcastle, but Villa are cast adrift at the bottom and look to have stopped trying, whereas Newcastle still have a glimmer of hope of survival and so will be fighting much harder.

Leicester's next easiest game is away to Sunderland who are seventeenth. Our next easiest game is away to Newcastle who are nineteenth. Therefore that is another easier game for us, as Newcastle are lower in the bad half of the table than Sunderland (not to mention a Big Sam team fighting for survival at home are going to employ exactly the tactics to stifle Leicester).

We both play Chelsea away and Southampton home - so we will scrub them.

Can you see what I have done here: six games, four easier for us technically, and two equal. That only leaves three games. So if four games are easier for us and two are neutral, that only leaves three games to even debate the relative difficulty of, three is not a higher number than four and therefore they can't have more easier games than us.

They have a slight advantage by not being involved in any cups, and they are clear favourites. They may have a slightly easier run-in than us, subjectively, but they just plain do not have a MUCH EASIER run-in than us - as I have just shown, objectively.

You have not shown this. I don't care what the league table says, Chelsea and Liverpool away will be harder for us than Utd at home. If West Ham at home are Leiscters hardest fixture I'll stand by the words you hate, they have a much easier run in than us. Doesn't mean we won't do better than them! On paper all teams would want there fixtures and there 5 point lead

 

[Larryjanta]

Let's put everything into perspective. From our last 8 games we have taken 19 points. That is a bloody good return. I think like me a few people are downbeat because we lost to the pikeys and drew with the scum when we should of won.

But the bigger picture tells me we have been brilliant over the last 9 games. The gap to Leicester is only a 2 game swing and there are many twists and turns yet to come.

Our next 2 games will give us an indication on whether or not we have the appetite to win the league / finish top 4 / bottle it altogether

And another 19 from our next 8 (which, on paper, don't look much harder than our last 8 - City, Spam away, Arsenal at home) would put us on 74 going into our last match. I very much doubt Leicester will ammass more than 17 over the next 8 so we could be in the situation that us winning and them losing wins us the title. We're far too downbeat at the moment. Let's hope the players have more confidence.

 

[StartingPrice]

You have not shown this. I don't care what the league table says, Chelsea and Liverpool away will be harder for us than Utd at home. If West Ham at home are Leiscters hardest fixture I'll stand by the words you hate, they have a much easier run in than us. Doesn't mean we won't do better than them! On paper all teams would want there fixtures and there 5 point lead

Yes, yes I really have shown just that. I have taken a quantifiable criterion, league position, and via direct comparison shown that our two easiest games are, on a very simple level, easier than their two easiest games, and their two hardest games are harder than our two hardest games. That is four games were the term you choose to use easier can be applied to our games compared to theirs. I have then highlighted that we both play Chelsea away and we both play Southampton at home. It is fair to class them as, basically, equally hard (or equally easy). That is six games out of nine where our games are easier or as easy as theirs using a quantifiable criterion - it only leaves three games. It is therefore impossible for them to have more games that are easier than ours (we have four the most they can have is three) and impossible for them to have more games that are easier or as easy as ours (we have six, four easier, two the same, the most they can have is five, three easier, two the same). It is nothing to do with what I want or what I don't want - which is what being objective is.

It is us that play United at home, Leicester play them away. You don't seem to have actually studied the fixtures. And you don't care what the league table says. The only argument you have made is that they don't have any cup games, that's it, the height of your argument.

The fact that they have a five point lead is irrelevant to stating that they have an easier run-in - I've already explained why once.

Why would all teams want their fixtures - and what proof do you have of this. They have to play two teams in the top six, one at home and one away - we only have to play one team in the top six and that is at home. These are facts.

I strongly suspect that you are one of those fans who has to make everything seem as hard as possible for your team and as easy as possible for the opposition so that you don't have any hope because hope can be broken and you will get upset. Do that, I don't care - I don't hate that you keep on stating that they have a much easier run-in as though that is an objective statement. On the contrary, I find it rather sad. Sad that you have to con yourself like that and sad that you keep on trying to pass off your intimation that we have cup games so our run-in in the league includes more difficult games than Leicesters. Especially when you are provided with reasonable if slightly simplistic data to show that there is no objective truth to your claim. But I don't really care that much. On the contrary, I think you just want to repeated it endlessly and hate that anyone would show it up for the tosh it is.

Before the ArseAnal and spammers games I would have agreed - but they are past and we are talking now. I would say our fixtures are pretty comparable really and it is their five point lead that makes them clear favourites and just having to match our results in comparable games in order to win the league. Hell, they can even afford to lose one more and draw one more than us and still maintain their advantage. I don't need any spurious nonsense about them having much easier fixtures than us in order to accept that we have an uphill battle to catch them and are depending on them dropping points. I don't even care that you insist on saying much easier when I would pass your posts by if you just said slightly easier. But I do choose to expose it for the nonsense it is.

Cheers

 

[Larryjanta]

Just noticed we're on three MNF's in a row!

Stoke away, West Brom home and Chelsea away.

Are they after EL games if we get past Dortmund? If so, I'd much rather play on the Monday than the Sunday. Gives us an extra day after EL at the expense of a day's prep for the EL

 

[Larryjanta]

Yes, yes I really have shown just that. I have taken a quantifiable criterion, league position, and via direct comparison shown that our two easiest games are, on a very simple level, easier than their two easiest games, and their two hardest games are harder than our two hardest games. That is four games were the term you choose to use easier can be applied to our games compared to theirs. I have then highlighted that we both play Chelsea away and we both play Southampton at home. It is fair to class them as, basically, equally hard (or equally easy). That is six games out of nine where our games are easier or as easy as theirs using a quantifiable criterion - it only leaves three games. It is therefore impossible for them to have more games that are easier than ours (we have four the most they can have is three) and impossible for them to have more games that are easier or as easy as ours (we have six, four easier, two the same, the most they can have is five, three easier, two the same). It is nothing to do with what I want or what I don't want - which is what being objective is.

It is us that play United at home, Leicester play them away. You don't seem to have actually studied the fixtures. And you don't care what the league table says. The only argument you have made is that they don't have any cup games, that's it, the height of your argument.

The fact that they have a five point lead is irrelevant to stating that they have an easier run-in - I've already explained why once.

Why would all teams want their fixtures - and what proof do you have of this. They have to play two teams in the top six, one at home and one away - we only have to play one team in the top six and that is at home. These are facts.

I strongly suspect that you are one of those fans who has to make everything seem as hard as possible for your team and as easy as possible for the opposition so that you don't have any hope because hope can be broken and you will get upset. Do that, I don't care - I don't hate that you keep on stating that they have a much easier run-in as though that is an objective statement. On the contrary, I find it rather sad. Sad that you have to con yourself like that and sad that you keep on trying to pass off your intimation that we have cup games so our run-in in the league includes more difficult games than Leicesters. Especially when you are provided with reasonable if slightly simplistic data to show that there is no objective truth to your claim. But I don't really care that much. On the contrary, I think you just want to repeated it endlessly and hate that anyone would show it up for the tosh it is.

Before the ArseAnal and spammers games I would have agreed - but they are past and we are talking now. I would say our fixtures are pretty comparable really and it is their five point lead that makes them clear favourites and just having to match our results in comparable games in order to win the league. Hell, they can even afford to lose one more and draw one more than us and still maintain their advantage. I don't need any spurious nonsense about them having much easier fixtures than us in order to accept that we have an uphill battle to catch them and are depending on them dropping points. I don't even care that you insist on saying much easier when I would pass your posts by if you just said slightly easier. But I do choose to expose it for the nonsense it is.

Cheers

Look, @millsey would spin us winning the title as a negative for the club so your post, however eloquent, will fall on deaf ears. Half expect he wants us to fall short so he can say he told us so but I can't believe anyone would think that...