The Race to the Title

[guy]

Liverpool with no Europa - 2nd
Man United no Europa - 3rd was it? (forget)
Leicester no Europa - Champions?
.

Spurs with Europa - 2nd

 

[glacierSpurs]

I'm still adamant of the hope that the team with most goals scored and least goals conceded will win the title...

just let me dream..

 

[Riandor]

Spurs with Europa - 2nd

Hopefully, or better... but that really is the exception to the rule and given that Chelsea fluffed their season, it kinda makes sense to work on their best possible chance at fighting for the top prize and by and large that means screw Europa and focus on the league.

The obvious counter is of course, would we have won the league without Europa? (7pts dropped after EL games = gap between 2nd and 1st).

 

[Riandor]

Just to shatter all of our dreams a little further

View attachment 22800

Conceding in the 90th minute to lose 1-0 is fine by me, Leicester can maintain the least minutes in a losing position award!

 

[mil1lion]

I feel like Fox Mulder. I want to believe!

 

[KingKay]

Had us down as no hope from here, however i've just done the league predictor...

We can't, can we?

 

[davidmatzdorf]

The obvious counter is of course, would we have won the league without Europa? (7pts dropped after EL games = gap between 2nd and 1st).

I've seen this "7 points dropped after EL matches" stat a few times in the past few days. That's not what it says on my carefully-maintained Spurs Results spreadsheet .

We played 10 matches in the Europa League this season. In the 10 matches immediately following those matches, our record is 5 wins, 2 draws & 3 losses. But one of those losses was to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, so we have dropped 10 league points following EL matches.

But that doesn't mean anything unless you compare it to our record in league matches that did not follow an EL match.

Our record in the games following EL matches garnered us 17 points in 10 matches @ 1.7 points per match if you include the FA Cup match. But you have to exclude the FA Cup match, because it had no effect on our league placing. After EL matches, we got 17 points in 9 league matches @ 1.89 points per match.

Our overall league record has produced 1.97 points per match.

Our league record in matches that did not follow EL matches has produced 48 points in 24 matches, which is exactly 2.00 points per match.

The difference between points per match in post-EL games and non-post-EL games is 2.00 - 1.89 = 0.11 points. So the lost points in post-EL league matches 0.11 points/match x 9 matches.

Which equals 0.99 points. Less than 1 point. Considerably smaller than any random factors, I think.

EDIT: I've mssed out a point after the EL matches. We got 18, not 17. Reinforces my conclusion.

 

[DCSPUR]

I've seen this "7 points dropped after EL matches" stat a few times in the past few days. That's not what it says on my carefully-maintained Spurs Results spreadsheet .

We played 10 matches in the Europa League this season. In the 10 matches immediately following those matches, our record is 5 wins, 2 draws & 3 losses. But one of those losses was to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, so we have dropped 10 league points following EL matches.

But that doesn't mean anything unless you compare it to our record in league matches that did not follow an EL match.

Our record in the games following EL matches garnered us 17 points in 10 matches @ 1.7 points per match if you include the FA Cup match. But you have to exclude the FA Cup match, because it had no effect on our league placing. After EL matches, we got 17 points in 9 league matches @ 1.89 points per match.

Our overall league record has produced 1.97 points per match.

Our league record in matches that did not follow EL matches has produced 48 points in 24 matches, which is exactly 2.00 points per match.

The difference between points per match in post-EL games and non-post-EL games is 2.00 - 1.89 = 0.11 points. So the lost points in post-EL league matches 0.11 points/match x 9 matches.

Which equals 0.99 points. Less than 1 point. Considerably smaller than any random factors, I think.

smarty pants

 

[Riandor]

I've seen this "7 points dropped after EL matches" stat a few times in the past few days. That's not what it says on my carefully-maintained Spurs Results spreadsheet .

We played 10 matches in the Europa League this season. In the 10 matches immediately following those matches, our record is 5 wins, 2 draws & 3 losses. But one of those losses was to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, so we have dropped 10 league points following EL matches.

But that doesn't mean anything unless you compare it to our record in league matches that did not follow an EL match.

Our record in the games following EL matches garnered us 17 points in 10 matches @ 1.7 points per match if you include the FA Cup match. But you have to exclude the FA Cup match, because it had no effect on our league placing. After EL matches, we got 17 points in 9 league matches @ 1.89 points per match.

Our overall league record has produced 1.97 points per match.

Our league record in matches that did not follow EL matches has produced 48 points in 24 matches, which is exactly 2.00 points per match.

The difference between points per match in post-EL games and non-post-EL games is 2.00 - 1.89 = 0.11 points. So the lost points in post-EL league matches 0.11 points/match x 9 matches.

Which equals 0.99 points. Less than 1 point. Considerably smaller than any random factors, I think.

That's nice n all... but I maintain that the cumulative effect of number of games has meant no title... (probably)
We played Anderlecht and then drew with Arsenal.
We played Quarabag and then drew with Chelsea a few days after, points dropped. As a result of that we went on to draw with WBA.
Many other examples, but by and large when we have played mid-week, regardless of cup it has had more negative impact than positive.

Even if we go by your statistics of 1 point, that's the difference between 2 matches going our way vs now it being 3.

I am proud of our achievements and I do want us to be competitive in UCL and league next season, but there is no denying that teams not In Europe have an advantage when it comes to league preperation etc...

 

[UpTownSpur]

I wrote this back in August, and our respective starts could well prove the difference.

It honestly seems like they were unaware when the season started - it's almost like they received a phone call the day before the Man Utd game telling them the season was about to start, and they'd been expecting another month before it did. We just look totally unprepared for it. Look at Leicester, they've hit the ground running and have already got six invaluable points that will go a long way to making sure they're safe this season.

We need them to finish like we started as they've never really had an equivalent bad spell as our start.

 

[Kingellesar]

Just putting this out there.....why is there no "Let's all laugh at Leicester City" thread in general?

The curse seems to work for all the other teams that have a thread.

 

[Shadydan]

Because the let's all laugh at threads are shite.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

I've seen this "7 points dropped after EL matches" stat a few times in the past few days. That's not what it says on my carefully-maintained Spurs Results spreadsheet .

We played 10 matches in the Europa League this season. In the 10 matches immediately following those matches, our record is 5 wins, 2 draws & 3 losses. But one of those losses was to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, so we have dropped 10 league points following EL matches.

But that doesn't mean anything unless you compare it to our record in league matches that did not follow an EL match.

Our record in the games following EL matches garnered us 17 points in 10 matches @ 1.7 points per match if you include the FA Cup match. But you have to exclude the FA Cup match, because it had no effect on our league placing. After EL matches, we got 17 points in 9 league matches @ 1.89 points per match.

Our overall league record has produced 1.97 points per match.

Our league record in matches that did not follow EL matches has produced 48 points in 24 matches, which is exactly 2.00 points per match.

The difference between points per match in post-EL games and non-post-EL games is 2.00 - 1.89 = 0.11 points. So the lost points in post-EL league matches 0.11 points/match x 9 matches.

Which equals 0.99 points. Less than 1 point. Considerably smaller than any random factors, I think.

Every EL hater this this season should read this post!
BUT, I believe we are on exactly 18 points in 9 PL matches directly following EL(?).
In which case, there is NO difference between matches after EL and all other matches.

We screwed up in the start of season, before EL started. The results after EL kicked off have been really, really good. (1.2 points per game before EL started, 2.1 points per game after EL started). Hence, EL obviously made us better.
Nobody tell me I don't understand how to use statistics.

 

[nightgoat]

I had a premonition last night, I was awoken by some foxes fighting outside. What does this mean? Yes, that's it! Leicester will be embroiled in infighting and will suffer from a huge meltdown.

On a side note, after being woken up I now hate foxes.

It's quite appropriate their team is made up of cast-offs from other teams that nobody wanted, like a mongrel rummaging around in the bins for Wes Morgan at 2am.

 

[nightgoat]

I've seen this "7 points dropped after EL matches" stat a few times in the past few days. That's not what it says on my carefully-maintained Spurs Results spreadsheet .

We played 10 matches in the Europa League this season. In the 10 matches immediately following those matches, our record is 5 wins, 2 draws & 3 losses. But one of those losses was to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, so we have dropped 10 league points following EL matches.

But that doesn't mean anything unless you compare it to our record in league matches that did not follow an EL match.

Our record in the games following EL matches garnered us 17 points in 10 matches @ 1.7 points per match if you include the FA Cup match. But you have to exclude the FA Cup match, because it had no effect on our league placing. After EL matches, we got 17 points in 9 league matches @ 1.89 points per match.

Our overall league record has produced 1.97 points per match.

Our league record in matches that did not follow EL matches has produced 48 points in 24 matches, which is exactly 2.00 points per match.

The difference between points per match in post-EL games and non-post-EL games is 2.00 - 1.89 = 0.11 points. So the lost points in post-EL league matches 0.11 points/match x 9 matches.

Which equals 0.99 points. Less than 1 point. Considerably smaller than any random factors, I think.

Our post-EL league record is five wins, three draws and one defeat. 18 points in 9 games, so 2ppg exact.

 

[ardiles]

I've seen this "7 points dropped after EL matches" stat a few times in the past few days. That's not what it says on my carefully-maintained Spurs Results spreadsheet .

We played 10 matches in the Europa League this season. In the 10 matches immediately following those matches, our record is 5 wins, 2 draws & 3 losses. But one of those losses was to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, so we have dropped 10 league points following EL matches.

But that doesn't mean anything unless you compare it to our record in league matches that did not follow an EL match.

Our record in the games following EL matches garnered us 17 points in 10 matches @ 1.7 points per match if you include the FA Cup match. But you have to exclude the FA Cup match, because it had no effect on our league placing. After EL matches, we got 17 points in 9 league matches @ 1.89 points per match.

Our overall league record has produced 1.97 points per match.

Our league record in matches that did not follow EL matches has produced 48 points in 24 matches, which is exactly 2.00 points per match.

The difference between points per match in post-EL games and non-post-EL games is 2.00 - 1.89 = 0.11 points. So the lost points in post-EL league matches 0.11 points/match x 9 matches.

Which equals 0.99 points. Less than 1 point. Considerably smaller than any random factors, I think.

David,

I agree with you on most points but I think that there has been more affect on our results because of the EL games.

If we didn't have EL, we would have played lesser games which would have resulted in the players being less tired (throughout the season as a whole). Tiredness brings the possibility of injuries. Thus with less injuries, we would have played a majority of our league games with our strongest eleven.

Vertonghen, Dembele, Lamela and a few others missed games through injury this season, although not all because of the reasons stated above.

 

[Roynie]

David,

I agree with you on most points but I think that there has been more affect on our results because of the EL games.

If we didn't have EL, we would have played lesser games which would have resulted in the players being less tired (throughout the season as a whole). Tiredness brings the possibility of injuries. Thus with less injuries, we would have played a majority of our league games with our strongest eleven.

Vertonghen, Dembele, Lamela and a few others missed games through injury this season, although not all because of the reasons stated above.

On the other hand the EL games did allow some of the fringe and youth players to gain some experience playing for the first team. Experience that they would otherwise not have been given in the league.

 

[nailsy]

Just putting this out there.....why is there no "Let's all laugh at Leicester City" thread in general?

The curse seems to work for all the other teams that have a thread.

Because there's absolutely no reason to laugh at them?

 

[SandroClegane]

David,

I agree with you on most points but I think that there has been more affect on our results because of the EL games.

If we didn't have EL, we would have played lesser games which would have resulted in the players being less tired (throughout the season as a whole). Tiredness brings the possibility of injuries. Thus with less injuries, we would have played a majority of our league games with our strongest eleven.

Vertonghen, Dembele, Lamela and a few others missed games through injury this season, although not all because of the reasons stated above.

Dembele/Lamela got hurt on int'l break and Vertonghen got hurt due to a contact injury in a game. Has nothing to do with tiredness due to EL.

 

[Shadydan]

David,

I agree with you on most points but I think that there has been more affect on our results because of the EL games.

If we didn't have EL, we would have played lesser games which would have resulted in the players being less tired (throughout the season as a whole). Tiredness brings the possibility of injuries. Thus with less injuries, we would have played a majority of our league games with our strongest eleven.

Vertonghen, Dembele, Lamela and a few others missed games through injury this season, although not all because of the reasons stated above.

At the same time more games means more match practice, more cohesion, wins breed confidence and more players getting games meaning a more united, happier squad so it's not as clear cut as that.

Personally I think it's all a nonsense really, there's no certified way to define whether the EL was a hindrance to us no matter how you look at it.