The Race to the Title

[RogerTCB]

79 -74 = 5

I think he meant that, for example, you can have a tied set of four teams on 80 points each, all separated by goal difference - or something like that. It doesn't have to be points that separate the teams.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

At Ladbrokes we're 21/20 to beat WHU and 6/4 to beat Arsenal. So for a £1 double, you'd stand to win £4.125 (and receive your £1 back too). We're 2/1 to win the league outright, so that means the bookies, who know what they're about, reckon we're something like twice as likely to win the league as we are to win the next two.

Let's remember this if and when we fail to pick up all the points on offer...

Odds are determined by how many better bet on a given outcome. It's not like the bookies job is to calculate the exact chances for each outcome, they adjust the odds based on what's popular and not popular to bet on. Hence, it is the knowledge of the masses, the sum of all betters, that suggests something. Not bookies. They don't know/don't have more talents in predicting the future than the rest of us.

 

[RogerTCB]

I reckon to get 4th you need to be fighting for first and that’s what we are doing. As for the title? That looks possible but a big ask given the run-in.

Here is one of those dodgy bits of stats that’s interesting but almost certainly meaningless.

If you take current league position as an indicator of how tough the game is going to be then Spurs have easily the worst run-in. Arsenal have by far and away the easiest. Leicester have second easiest.

Take a look here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BydGtKoaNN81Yk9yakxjOXBOMDg/view?usp=sharing

Also, if you go on and use a weighting for H/A advantage (I used 1.7 which I grabbed as an average from the 2012-2013 season average for points per game Home / Away) then you find that the order is the same but Arsenal have an even easier time of it.

Beating them this weekend will help keep the mental advantage which will be key. I could see a win for them kick-starting a recovery we don’t need them to have.

 

[millsey]

Leicester aren't in Europa and yet they still keep dropping points.

Sorry do they?

 

[stevenurse]

Is big Per injured??

No, just shit

 

[diamond lights]

Sorry do they?

Yes, they do. They have dropped 25 points this season.

 

[millsey]

Yes, they do. They have dropped 25 points this season.

Less than us

 

[nightgoat]

This is all getting really weird now for me. I was listening to the football weekly podcast and barry glendenning thinks we will win the league, many others do to in the football journalist world. It's just a little strange. I really think we won't still, never have and i am still just hopeful of finishing 4th as that was the original target. I'm sure i'm not the only one here thinking like this.

I mean we have played some truly great football, we never give up and just keep on going and when we go a goal down i now just think yep we will score two more just like Sunday. Even with all this i can't see us winning the league, it's not the old spurs fears really. I guess it's just that our aim was top 4 so whats happened so far to me is just a nice situation.

If we do though get to the last two games and still 2nd with a few points away from top i might let myself get a little excited then.

Can't stand Barry Glendenning.

 

[diamond lights]

Less than us

It is but everyone will drop points between now and the season's end. I still make Man City favourites but I think we'll finish ahead of Leicester. Man City have been there and done it before which is what gives them the edge. Trying to be totally neutral in that assessment but if I was a fan of the others I'd be worried about how good we look.

 

[diamond lights]

Can't stand Barry Glendenning.

I love him. My favourite journalist. Very funny guy.

 

[millsey]

It is but everyone will drop points between now and the season's end. I still make Man City favourites but I think we'll finish ahead of Leicester. Man City have been there and done it before which is what gives them the edge. Trying to be totally neutral in that assessment but if I was a fan of the others I'd be worried about how good we look.

I think us and Leicester look by far the best teams this season. Why does everyone keep saying Leicester will fall? I just don't see that at all based on the entire season so far.

 

[minimike]

I think us and Leicester look by far the best teams this season. Why does everyone keep saying Leicester will fall? I just don't see that at all based on the entire season so far.

This will be the first week where one of their most vital players (with the exception of Vardy) will be injured for 2 games. I think without Kante for 2 weeks will be a real acid test for them, he's an absolute machine.

 

[degoose]

Can't stand Barry Glendenning.

Really? I quite like him. Pretty honest pundit/journalist and very funny.

 

[kaz Hirai]

I reckon to get 4th you need to be fighting for first and that’s what we are doing. As for the title? That looks possible but a big ask given the run-in.

Here is one of those dodgy bits of stats that’s interesting but almost certainly meaningless.

If you take current league position as an indicator of how tough the game is going to be then Spurs have easily the worst run-in. Arsenal have by far and away the easiest. Leicester have second easiest.

Take a look here: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BydGtKoaNN81Yk9yakxjOXBOMDg

Also, if you go on and use a weighting for H/A advantage (I used 1.7 which I grabbed as an average from the 2012-2013 season average for points per game Home / Away) then you find that the order is the same but Arsenal have an even easier time of it.

Beating them this weekend will help keep the mental advantage which will be key. I could see a win for them kick-starting a recovery we don’t need them to have.

There aren't really any fixtures that easier than others this season unless your playing villa every week.

Away to West Bromwich is certainly no cakewalk

It's all just impossible to call this season. Too many strong teams

 

[millsey]

This will be the first week where one of their most vital players (with the exception of Vardy) will be injured for 2 games. I think without Kante for 2 weeks will be a real acid test for them, he's an absolute machine.

If they weren't playing a very poor west brom team at home maybe

 

[Lamelad]

I`ll say what I said on the first day of the season, if Sanchez plays to his level then Arsenal will win the league.

If he wakes up then they will be a complete new team.

I really hope he doesnt turn up against us. If he doesnt then we`ll be fine.

 

[Larryjanta]

Why? Leicester have much easier run in, will only be 9 games left, and they will be 4 points ahead. That makes them very much favourites

Because I think we will do better than them over the last 9 games, by at least 4 points. Run ins are silly at this point in the season and I expect them to drop points against teams they should beat as the pressure builds on them. I remember us drawing against Villa when a win would have put us 3rd, I remember when we had to play Chelsea (and Arsenal?) with Palacios out for both games because of yellow cards and us winning them when everyone had written us off. I haven't been anticipating the wheels coming off Leicester all season, they are a good side playing well and picking up points brilliantly. Over the last 9 games, we have picked up 7 points on them. I think we're a better side than them and will pick up more points than them regardless of opposition. I think 6 points over 9 games would be tough, 4, I fully expect us to manage.

I know you'd prefer it if everyone was a down as you but I like to look on the positive side (am sure you have a post lined up for why, even though we won the title, it was somehow bad news ;-))

 

[millsey]

Because I think we will do better than them over the last 9 games, by at least 4 points. Run ins are silly at this point in the season and I expect them to drop points against teams they should beat as the pressure builds on them. I remember us drawing against Villa when a win would have put us 3rd, I remember when we had to play Chelsea (and Arsenal?) with Palacios out for both games because of yellow cards and us winning them when everyone had written us off. I haven't been anticipating the wheels coming off Leicester all season, they are a good side playing well and picking up points brilliantly. Over the last 9 games, we have picked up 7 points on them. I think we're a better side than them and will pick up more points than them regardless of opposition. I think 6 points over 9 games would be tough, 4, I fully expect us to manage.

I know you'd prefer it if everyone was a down as you but I like to look on the positive side (am sure you have a post lined up for why, even though we won the title, it was somehow bad news ;-))

We can all be positive and hope. Would you prefer there remaining fixtures and no Europa or ours and playing Thursday Sunday? I've said before, we are the best team in this league, but at least give a good reason for Leicester to fall?

 

[Shanks]

Regardless of form, Saturday will more than likely see a rejuvenated Arsenal. We've played them 'off-fornm' many times over the years for it to be tough.
We have had some good results during that time as well, so it's pretty key. Good thing for us, we are way more resiliant that previous years.

However, before we get onto the Saturday game, we have a bloody tough game this Wednesday... essentially we could go into Saturday's match top of the league, or we could go into Satursdays match 5 points off the top, on the same points as Arsenal.

 

[dricha1]

We can all be positive and hope. Would you prefer there remaining fixtures and no Europa or ours and playing Thursday Sunday? I've said before, we are the best team in this league, but at least give a good reason for Leicester to fall?

Except if we get past Dortmund we'll be playing Thursday Monday! ;-)