The Race to the Title

[dudu]

See the thing is I don't see anyone saying we'll definitely lose. I see people saying these are the games we'll slip up in. At the top end of the table, when we're five points behind the team we're chasing, a draw is a slip up. And winning at Anfield / Stamford Bridge is a big ask when you delve into it. Saying otherwise is incorrect.

With our form this year away from home its not as big an ask as it has been previously.

 

[Giovanni]

Ahhhh just hurry up game v pool ffs!! Things change sooo fast week by week. Lets just keep fingers crossed we get all our team back safe and sound ready for the most MASSIVE run in weve had in donkeys years......in my lifetime (born1988)

 

[whitesocks]

"Arse can get 79 points - that is a total above what we are likely to finish on," - again, it's an attitude.

No, it is basically just statistics.
Scum average 74 points these last few years with nothing to play for. They normally are on their holidays by now, but this year they have a chance and I think they can get very close to 79 points, (a total they reached just a couple of years ago). They have a good team as they showed at WHL - one of the best teams we have seen this season.

We average 68 points these last 4 seasons, with a prem league high of 72. It is a big ask to think we can suddenly get 79 points. 74/75 points is likely if we keep up the season's form.
Stepping it up again to get an extra 5 points from somewhere with 3 tricky games to come is a big ask.
And not likely.

Of course Leicester's season makes no sense at all. It is not logical. And sure that 1 deluded optimist Leicester fan who tells everyone they can win the title every year, has a good chance of being right for once in their life. But he is still a nutter, as all the evidence suggested another season of struggle.

You got to pin your expectations on something real. The attitude you refer to is called being realistic.

 

[philip]

No, it is basically just statistics.
Scum average 74 points these last few years with nothing to play for. They normally are on their holidays by now, but this year they have a chance and I think they can get very close to 79 points, (a total they reached just a couple of years ago). They have a good team as they showed at WHL - one of the best teams we have seen this season.

We average 68 points these last 4 seasons, with a prem league high of 72. It is a big ask to think we can suddenly get 79 points. 74/75 points is likely if we keep up the season's form.
Stepping it up again to get an extra 5 points from somewhere with 3 tricky games to come is a big ask.
And not likely.

Of course Leicester's season makes no sense at all. It is not logical. And sure that 1 deluded optimist Leicester fan who tells everyone they can win the title every year, has a good chance of being right for once in their life. But he is still a nutter, as all the evidence suggested another season of struggle.

You got to pin your expectations on something real. The attitude you refer to is called being realistic.

Why would you hark back to statistics from previous seasons when we clearly have a far superior manager, a better, fitter, younger, hungrier team, are playing far better than previously and our old rivals are all doing worse than previous seasons?

 

[Neon_Knight_]

No, it is basically just statistics.
Scum average 74 points these last few years with nothing to play for. They normally are on their holidays by now, but this year they have a chance and I think they can get very close to 79 points, (a total they reached just a couple of years ago). They have a good team as they showed at WHL - one of the best teams we have seen this season.

We average 68 points these last 4 seasons, with a prem league high of 72. It is a big ask to think we can suddenly get 79 points. 74/75 points is likely if we keep up the season's form.
Stepping it up again to get an extra 5 points from somewhere with 3 tricky games to come is a big ask.
And not likely.

Of course Leicester's season makes no sense at all. It is not logical. And sure that 1 deluded optimist Leicester fan who tells everyone they can win the title every year, has a good chance of being right for once in their life. But he is still a nutter, as all the evidence suggested another season of struggle.

You got to pin your expectations on something real. The attitude you refer to is called being realistic.

It's not unreasonable to forecast 74/75 pts, based on our form over the course of the entire season, as this is mathematically correct. However, I would argue that our current form is far more relevant than our early season form. We dropped 9 pts in the first four games, whilst Kane was in the midst of a goal drought. Right now, he is banging them in, and obviously that makes a huge difference to our results.

We have earned 25 pts in our last 10 games, which included three of the top five teams. This is an average of 2.5 pts per game. Based on this current form (without "stepping it up"), we are forecast a total of 78.5 pts.

Another way to look at it would be that we took 4 pts from Man City, Arsenal and West Ham and beat all of the weaker teams, during our last 10 games. If we continue in this form, to take 4 pts from Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea, as well as beating all of the weaker teams, that would be bring us to a total of 77 pts.

Even if your prediction of 74/75 pts is correct, that could be enough to finish above Arsenal or even to win the title.

Arsenal have won only three of their last 10 matches, so there is little to base an expectancy of close to 79 pts. It's not unlikely that their form will pick up considerably, but even that could easily fail to be enough. If they were to only drop points away to Man City, they'd get 76 pts. If they fail to win one other game, 74 pts would almost certainly see us finish above them on goal difference.

Leicester have some tough games left (I would say 5/7 are tough). They have had plenty of fortune during a string of 1-0 wins recently, and their luck will run out sooner or later. My prediction is that they'll take 10-12 points and finish on 76-78 pts, with the title being decided on the final day.
If we were to cut their lead down to 2 pts in the next couple of weeks, who knows whether they could hold their nerve...a loss to Southampton could potentially lead to a collapse (and <76 pts).

 

[StartingPrice]

No, it is basically just statistics.
Scum average 74 points these last few years with nothing to play for. They normally are on their holidays by now, but this year they have a chance and I think they can get very close to 79 points, (a total they reached just a couple of years ago). They have a good team as they showed at WHL - one of the best teams we have seen this season.

We average 68 points these last 4 seasons, with a prem league high of 72. It is a big ask to think we can suddenly get 79 points. 74/75 points is likely if we keep up the season's form.
Stepping it up again to get an extra 5 points from somewhere with 3 tricky games to come is a big ask.
And not likely.

Of course Leicester's season makes no sense at all. It is not logical. And sure that 1 deluded optimist Leicester fan who tells everyone they can win the title every year, has a good chance of being right for once in their life. But he is still a nutter, as all the evidence suggested another season of struggle.

You got to pin your expectations on something real. The attitude you refer to is called being realistic.

Statistics are tangible. What might happen is many things but it is not tangible. The Goons might win all their games (which they would have to do to get 79 points) but they might lose all their games, or something in between could happen. But nothing has happened yet. Therefore it is intangible and not a statistic.

What they have averaged in previous seasons is a statistic. What do they have to play for this season? They need to basically win as good as damn all of their games while hoping a team who has lost 3 out of 31 and another one who has lost 4 in 31 are both suddenly going to lose 4 or 5 out of 7. It is mathematically possible and I would expect them to keep on fighting while it is. But it is not probable, and that is what we are dealing with here...probabilities.

and I think they can get very close to 79 points

And that, there, that's it. That isn't a statistic. It is your attitude. I don't have that attitude. My attitude is that they have three extremely tough away games and, having watched virtually every one of their matches this season (except when they clashed with ours) their results and performances away from the Emirates have been far from great since the end of October. They beat an Everton side who have been poor at home and looked distracted by having just qualified for the Cup semi. That doesn't make them World beaters who are suddenly going to stop looking fragile as hell away - even on many occasions even when winning. So you thinking they can get 79 points by winning every single one of their matches is an attitude and it reveals more about your assumptions than it does about what will happen (because it reveals absolute zilch about what will happen).

Who cares what we have averaged in previous seasons? @philip has given the only answer that needs. It is funny that you revert back to the we've got three tricky games and it's a big ask argument when discussing us, but don't even find it worth mentioning which games the Goons have or which ones might be tricky. Again, that is an attitude and has nothing to do with anything tangible. And what are these tricky games we have? This has already been analysed several times: we play United, who are sixth and have been pretty poor away from home, at the Lane, Liverpool, who are ninth in the table, eighth in the form league and have won 2 of their last six at home, at Anfield and Chelsea who Hiddinck has made tough to beat by, basically, making them draw specialists. The Goons have to play the teams who are fourth and fifth (they are third, in case you need reminding) - and both away. How on Gawds green earth do you make it that they are not tricky games for the Goons but these three are immensely difficult for us. Need I point out again, it is something you are making - that is, it is an attitude. I have made no predictions what-so-ever about who any of these results are going to pan out. But I'll tell you now, the team who are second (that's us), who have the meanest defence in the league and the most potent attack, are more likely to get something from the three games lists than the team who are third who have been flaky away from home have of getting anything from their three difficult away games. That is an attitude. It's not stats and neither is your contention that it is not likely.

I haven't stated any expectations. But I have analysed what is real - league position, overall form, home form, away form, and that is realistic. What is not realistic is arbitrarily making our games seem as difficult as possible without any analysis while making our oppos games seem as mere formalities on their way to 24 points from 24. And it is an attitude. IMHO, it is an attitude built up on too many disappointments resulting in excessive fear and is clouding your judgement (or certainly seems to be).

And I still haven't said any particular team is going to win, lose or draw any match or matches, or declared that any of the contenders will get a definite total number of points. All I have said is you are underrating the difficulty of the Goons away matches (in particular) and failing to put it into the correct context of their away form this season.

I'll say again: folk need to calm down and not do this to themselves. Take one game at a time. And look at it in context of league position and current form. The Goons cold overtake us, but it won't be easy for them and will require us dropping our form as well as them hitting exceptional form. And look at their games, particularly their away games in the proper context - which is not one of I fear the Goons will win all of their games, that is the type of thing that happens to us...therefore that is what will happen. Because that is not analysis, it is thought being driven by fear to create an attitude...and realistic it is not.

 

[StartingPrice]

It's not unreasonable to forecast 74/75 pts, based on our form over the course of the entire season, as this is mathematically correct. However, I would argue that our current form is far more relevant than our early season form. We dropped 9 pts in the first four games, whilst Kane was in the midst of a goal drought. Right now, he is banging them in, and obviously that makes a huge difference to our results.

We have earned 25 pts in our last 10 games, which included three of the top five teams. This is an average of 2.5 pts per game. Based on this current form (without "stepping it up"), we are forecast a total of 78.5 pts.

Another way to look at it would be that we took 4 pts from Man City, Arsenal and West Ham and beat all of the weaker teams, during our last 10 games. If we continue in this form, to take 4 pts from Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea, as well as beating all of the weaker teams, that would be bring us to a total of 77 pts.

Even if your prediction of 74/75 pts is correct, that could be enough to finish above Arsenal or even to win the title.

Arsenal have won only three of their last 10 matches, so there is little to base an expectancy of close to 79 pts. It's not unlikely that their form will pick up considerably, but even that could easily fail to be enough. If they were to only drop points away to Man City, they'd get 76 pts. If they fail to win one other game, 74 pts would almost certainly see us finish above them on goal difference.

Leicester have some tough games left (I would say 5/7 are tough). They have had plenty of fortune during a string of 1-0 wins recently, and their luck will run out sooner or later. My prediction is that they'll take 10-12 points and finish on 76-78 pts, with the title being decided on the final day.
If we were to cut their lead down to 2 pts in the next couple of weeks, who knows whether they could hold their nerve...a loss to Southampton could potentially lead to a collapse (and <76 pts).

See, this is analysis.

 

[Tit&Ham]

Kasper smeich injured during denmark training...

 

[Shadydan]

Well done Christian.

 

[Garageman]

Well done Christian.

Schmeichel playing down inury concerns. Tweeted that he retired from training as a precautionary measure. No doubt, we'll find out the truth soon enough.

 

[whitesocks]

...
We have earned 25 pts in our last 10 games, which included three of the top five teams. This is an average of 2.5 pts per game. Based on this current form (without "stepping it up"), we are forecast a total of 78.5 pts.

10 games is a nice sample size, that just happens to just miss our defeat to Leicester and draw with everton!
It includes our the whole of our 6 win run, and even then we do not get to 79 points.

And I fully take into account that this is MP's flying lap. I am 'predicting' an extra 10 points from last season - a 15% improvement, which is quite a lot - like having an extra player on the pitch. And that prediction is based on this season's form. If we improve again next year by another 10%+, then I think the title might be more than likely.

This attitude that I am repeatedly being called out on is if anything realistic.
I do not begrudge those who want to be optimistic - go for it - you may well not be disappointed.
If this is an optimistic only thread, then sorry to have bothered you all.

 

[Tit&Ham]

10 games is a nice sample size, that just happens to just miss our defeat to Leicester and draw with everton!
It includes our the whole of our 6 win run, and even then we do not get to 79 points.

And I fully take into account that this is MP's flying lap. I am 'predicting' an extra 10 points from last season - a 15% improvement, which is quite a lot - like having an extra player on the pitch. And that prediction is based on this season's form. If we improve again next year by another 10%+, then I think the title might be more than likely.

This attitude that I am repeatedly being called out on is if anything realistic.
I do not begrudge those who want to be optimistic - go for it - you may well not be disappointed.
If this is an optimistic only thread, then sorry to have bothered you all.

Don't know the discussion in depth, but 74 wouldnt be bad at all and not a pessimistic guess at all

But comparing to last season isnt possible anymore as we only need 3 more points to match that.

Its so hard to guess at This stage, that I find it easier to guess in intervalls:
Leicester: 71-78 points
Spurs: 68-76
Arse: 68-76
City: 60-68
United: 60-68
West ham: 60-68

Meaning we could end up from 1st to 6th but most likely 2 or 3.
Probability for top 4 must be around 90%...

 

[Lighty64]

with the Butland injury the Stoke game might be a fraction easier now

 

[SandroClegane]

Don't know the discussion in depth, but 74 wouldnt be bad at all and not a pessimistic guess at all

But comparing to last season isnt possible anymore as we only need 3 more points to match that.

Its so hard to guess at This stage, that I find it easier to guess in intervalls:
Leicester: 71-78 points
Spurs: 68-76
Arse: 68-76
City: 60-68
United: 60-68
West ham: 60-68

Meaning we could end up from 1st to 6th but most likely 2 or 3.
Probability for top 4 must be around 90%...

our top four probability has been around 99% for the last month or so.

https://twitter.com/MC_of_A/status/711622732467855361

 

[Neon_Knight_]

10 games is a nice sample size, that just happens to just miss our defeat to Leicester and draw with everton!
It includes our the whole of our 6 win run, and even then we do not get to 79 points.

I just looked at the form column on BBC Sport's league table, rather than carefully selecting the most favourable sample size. The Leicester defeat was 11 weeks ago, so not necessarily too relevant to our current form.

Obviously the form of all teams fluctuates. The point I was trying to make in my previous post is that there are different ways to analyse stats to assist predictions. I wasn't dismissing your estimate of 74/75 pts as unrealistic or pessimistic, but showing that there are more optimistic (and still realistic) ways of forecasting our results, by basing it on only the more recent (therefore more relevant imo) data.

This attitude that I am repeatedly being called out on is if anything realistic.

I think you'll find it difficult to convince anyone here that Arsenal getting 79 pts (or "very close to") is realistic. I consider it to be extremely pessimistic to expect them to suddenly produce a level of form that they haven't been capable of all season. I'm not saying it isn't possible, but it certainly isn't a realistic expectation.

 

[StartingPrice]

This attitude that I am repeatedly being called out on is if anything realistic.
.

No-one called you out on anything. I was asked where certain things were being said. I pointed out I never claimed things were said, I pointed to an attitude. I quoted part of one of your posts as an example of this attitude.

I've already explained why it is an attitude and not a statistic as you claimed. Things that haven't happened yet can't be statistics. You predicted they will (or will have a good chance to) win 24 points out of 24. Your prediction is based on your attitude. My attitude is that one should be neither overly pessimistic nor optimistic in making predictions, but simply look at current league position, fixtures, current form, current home form, current away form and any other factors you choose to include. For instance, you could include the factor that the Goons have finished the season fantastically well on previous occasions and that may give them a confidence boost. That is wholly legitimate (though intangible). it doesn't mean they will win 8 games out of 8, though.

In this instance, you thought it was worthy of mentioning, in your paragraph about us, the three tricky games and it's a big ask and that the chances of us winning them are not likely. You never gave any quantifiable reasoning. You never discussed current league position, form, home form, away form, none of that. In your paragraph on the Goons, you didn't discuss the difficulty level of one single game that they have left. Not one. Why not? It's not a statistic to decide that they are just going to win 8 games out of 8 without any analysis. It's not realistic - the stats (real stats) and real observations show that it is against the odds that they are going to win all 8 of their remaining games, or all 3 of their very difficult away games. It's an attitude. Your attitude. I'm not calling you out on it...merely pointing out that in my opinion analysis of the factors listed above makes this attitude erroneous. It's like saying we had a woeful defensive record last season therefore we will concede approximately 30 odd goals in the next seven games which will confirm that statistic. It's possible, we could concede 4+ goals a game. But analysis of our defensive record and cohesion this season suggests it is highly unlikely.

I have mentioned several times the Goons three away games. Why do you feel it is not worth analysing them? They are third and play the fourth and fifth (Spammers home form is title winning) placed teams away from the Emirates. Why do you believe that they are not as difficult for them as playing the sixth placed team at WHL is for us? Especially given that sixth placed team's away form is far from impressive? Please, answer...and show your reasoning - without referring back to anything that happened in previous seasons.

I do not begrudge those who want to be optimistic - go for it - you may well not be disappointed.

Who's being optimistic? Personally, I haven't made any predictions at all - all I have said is that the panic induced belief that the Goons are somehow going to win all their remain games, based on what has happened in previous seasons and that therefore none of those games need any analysis, is ill-conceived, pointless and ultimately stress-inducing. It is not optimism to look at league position, current form, home form, away form etc., and say that the Goons have some very hard away games. it is pessimism however to declare that they will win all 8 of their remaining things based on what happened in previous seasons. Most of us will be disappointed enough if we don't win the league without inventing erroneous fear filled arguments based on an attitude that has no rational basis to stress ourselves out with in the meantime.

If this is an optimistic only thread, then sorry to have bothered you all

No-one said you can't post your opinions - no matter how erroneous, fear filled and based on attitudes that have no rational basis - ultimately pessimistic. Just that those opinions are as open to analysis and debate as anyone else's opinions. Personally, I haven't posted any optimistic predictions - but if you can show that this assertion is wrong using logical reasoning and analysis go for it All I have done if use these tools to show that there is no rational basis, for instance, in deciding that the Goons two hardest games are so much easier than our hardest two remaining games. I have conceded several times that that doesn't mean the Goons won't win all of their away games, or that we won't lose our difficult games - I have just stated that the balance of probability does not favour your argument. And this is not, in itself, an optimistic argument - it is a neutral argument

 

[Tit&Ham]

No-one called you out on anything. I was asked where certain things were being said. I pointed out I never claimed things were said, I pointed to an attitude. I quoted part of one of your posts as an example of this attitude.

I've already explained why it is an attitude and not a statistic as you claimed. Things that haven't happened yet can't be statistics. You predicted they will (or will have a good chance to) win 24 points out of 24. Your prediction is based on your attitude. My attitude is that one should be neither overly pessimistic nor optimistic in making predictions, but simply look at current league position, fixtures, current form, current home form, current away form and any other factors you choose to include. For instance, you could include the factor that the Goons have finished the season fantastically well on previous occasions and that may give them a confidence boost. That is wholly legitimate (though intangible). it doesn't mean they will win 8 games out of 8, though.

In this instance, you thought it was worthy of mentioning, in your paragraph about us, the three tricky games and it's a big ask and that the chances of us winning them are not likely. You never gave any quantifiable reasoning. You never discussed current league position, form, home form, away form, none of that. In your paragraph on the Goons, you didn't discuss the difficulty level of one single game that they have left. Not one. Why not? It's not a statistic to decide that they are just going to win 8 games out of 8 without any analysis. It's not realistic - the stats (real stats) and real observations show that it is against the odds that they are going to win all 8 of their remaining games, or all 3 of their very difficult away games. It's an attitude. Your attitude. I'm not calling you out on it...merely pointing out that in my opinion analysis of the factors listed above makes this attitude erroneous. It's like saying we had a woeful defensive record last season therefore we will concede approximately 30 odd goals in the next seven games which will confirm that statistic. It's possible, we could concede 4+ goals a game. But analysis of our defensive record and cohesion this season suggests it is highly unlikely.

I have mentioned several times the Goons three away games. Why do you feel it is not worth analysing them? They are third and play the fourth and fifth (Spammers home form is title winning) placed teams away from the Emirates. Why do you believe that they are not as difficult for them as playing the sixth placed team at WHL is for us? Especially given that sixth placed team's away form is far from impressive? Please, answer...and show your reasoning - without referring back to anything that happened in previous seasons.



Who's being optimistic? Personally, I haven't made any predictions at all - all I have said is that the panic induced belief that the Goons are somehow going to win all their remain games, based on what has happened in previous seasons and that therefore none of those games need any analysis, is ill-conceived, pointless and ultimately stress-inducing. It is not optimism to look at league position, current form, home form, away form etc., and say that the Goons have some very hard away games. it is pessimism however to declare that they will win all 8 of their remaining things based on what happened in previous seasons. Most of us will be disappointed enough if we don't win the league without inventing erroneous fear filled arguments based on an attitude that has no rational basis to stress ourselves out with in the meantime.




No-one said you can't post your opinions - no matter how erroneous, fear filled and based on attitudes that have no rational basis - ultimately pessimistic. Just that those opinions are as open to analysis and debate as anyone else's opinions. Personally, I haven't posted any optimistic predictions - but if you can show that this assertion is wrong using logical reasoning and analysis go for it All I have done if use these tools to show that there is no rational basis, for instance, in deciding that the Goons two hardest games are so much easier than our two remaining games. I have conceded several times that that doesn't mean the Goons won't win all of their away games, or that we won't lose our difficult games - I have just stated that the balance of probability does not favour your argument. And this is not, in itself, an optimistic argument - it is a neutral argument

Gave u a funny-rating since there's no thorough-raring.

Good reasoning and I agree with you, except as a lifelong spurs-fan I truly believe Arse will win all their remaining games. So will City and United. We will probably Get another 4 or 5 points.

And I can't wait to be proven wrong

 

[easley91]

After watching our England boys last night and reading Toby's quotes today, I am no longer as scared or nervous as I used to be when going to Anfield. Four of players were superb on a huge stage away in Berlin to Germany helping the side come back from 2-0 down.

Providing we go there as full strength as we can be, I am confident of a draw at the very least. Though a win will send a direct message to Leicester before their game telling them we are not going anyway easy.

 

[StartingPrice]

Gave u a funny-rating since there's no thorough-raring.

If you must make a typo I believe thorough-raving would be more appropriate (and more readily acceded to on these forums).

Good reasoning and I agree with you, except as a lifelong spurs-fan I truly believe Arse will win all their remaining games. So will City and United. We will probably Get another 4 or 5 points.

And I can't wait to be proven wrong

No.
No.
NO...'cos...'cos...
'Cos...them teams is ****s!

 

[worcestersauce]

If Arsenal win all their remaining games they will have 79 points which means Leicester can afford to lose two of their final seven games, in fact five wins or only four wins and two draws will do it.
Arsenal will not win eight games on the bounce so Leicester will be safe from them with four wins or less.
Put another way Leicester will have to drop nine points even if Arsenal get maximum points.
Arsenal will not win the title.