The Race to the Title

[Tit&Ham]

G

If you must make a typo I believe thorough-raving would be more appropriate (and more readily acceded to on these forums).








No.
No.
NO...'cos...'cos...
'Cos...them teams is ****s!

give me a f***** break okay? I'm from overseas and on an iPhone.



Just kidding - said before Bournemouth that a win secured us top 4. Regret that now, bit have to stand by my word. Even if it dont mean shit...

 

[StartingPrice]

G

give me a f***** break okay? I'm from overseas and on an iPhone.



Just kidding - said before Bournemouth that a win secured us top 4. Regret that now, bit have to stand by my word. Even if it dont mean shit...

Couldn't you get out of that by saying you meant top 4 in London?

Would finishing 4th in London still mean finishing above Chelsea?

 

[Roynie]

Couldn't you get out of that by saying you meant top 4 in London?

Would finishing 4th in London still mean finishing above Chelsea?

Sadly no, Chelski are currently 4th in London. Palace have slipped down to 16th, Chelski are 10th.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

Arsenal will not win the title.

Agreed. But Spurs might still.

 

[worcestersauce]

Agreed. But Spurs might still.

We bloody well better!

 

[whitesocks]

No-one called you out on anything....

your opinions - no matter how erroneous, fear filled and based on attitudes that have no rational basis - ultimately pessimistic.

You keep summoning me back! I really do not belong in this happy thread.
Lets hope you haven't also summoned the god of the gaps.

What made me first comment was when Arsenal were written off for the title by the media. They talk of a 2 horse race, but does anyone here really buy this? Just 6 points behind us with a game in hand, with 21 points still to play is not dead and buried for me. And if we are still in it, they most certainly are in it.
[There you go, gap god, nothing to see here, go back to sleep]

If for the sake of this thread, Leicester wobble a little, a neutral might reason that the underperforming CL team/squad are the more able to put a spectacular run together, with the return of Welbeck, a better balanced midfield than before and no CL to worry about.
They have made these crazy win streaks before. They persistently average mid 70 points.
They have world cup winners. They are lucky. And with the other big 4 teams in chaos, they are definitely the team who should be taking advantage. If they don't win the title, Wenger has really f**ked up.
Forgetting Leicester, I think they are still favourites for the title. But that does not mean we should give up the fight to finish above them or for the title - we need to stay plucky.

If Leicester don't crack, and gather 80 odd points, do I think arsenal are favourites to take second place? No - I think/hope they'll lose interest. Their players will do what they usually do - enough to finish top 4, then adjust their efforts to peak in the summer international tournaments. And their fans will turn against Wenger. It will still be tough, but I optimistically feel we can sneak above them to take 2nd place.
Which would make a nice change.

 

[RichieS]

Sadly no, Chelski are currently 4th in London. Palace have slipped down to 16th, Chelski are 10th.

Palace have some outstanding players. I'm a big fan of Cabaye, Bolasie and Zaha. They'll definitely finish in the bottom ten.

 

[StartingPrice]

Sadly no, Chelski are currently 4th in London. Palace have slipped down to 16th, Chelski are 10th.

I was jesting, M8 - we won't finish 4th in London. Can't see the Spammers overtaking us, so the lowest we could conceivably finish is 2nd in London in a straight fight with the Goons. But the odds are against that happening. It was by way of having a little laugh at Chelsea's expense

 

[StartingPrice]

You keep summoning me back! I really do not belong in this happy thread.
Lets hope you haven't also summoned the god of the gaps.

What made me first comment was when Arsenal were written off for the title by the media. They talk of a 2 horse race, but does anyone here really buy this? Just 6 points behind us with a game in hand, with 21 points still to play is not dead and buried for me. And if we are still in it, they most certainly are in it.
[There you go, gap god, nothing to see here, go back to sleep]

If for the sake of this thread, Leicester wobble a little, a neutral might reason that the underperforming CL team/squad are the more able to put a spectacular run together, with the return of Welbeck, a better balanced midfield than before and no CL to worry about.
They have made these crazy win streaks before. They persistently average mid 70 points.
They have world cup winners. They are lucky. And with the other big 4 teams in chaos, they are definitely the team who should be taking advantage. If they don't win the title, Wenger has really f**ked up.
Forgetting Leicester, I think they are still favourites for the title. But that does not mean we should give up the fight to finish above them or for the title - we need to stay plucky.

If Leicester don't crack, and gather 80 odd points, do I think arsenal are favourites to take second place? No - I think/hope they'll lose interest. Their players will do what they usually do - enough to finish top 4, then adjust their efforts to peak in the summer international tournaments. And their fans will turn against Wenger. It will still be tough, but I optimistically feel we can sneak above them to take 2nd place.
Which would make a nice change.

Ye Gods (of the Gaps)...I have answered all of these things already.

The Goons chances of finishing above Leicester have been analysed most recently by @worcestersauce at the top of this page. They need a team who have lost 3 games in 31 to suddenly lose 3 in 7 while they win every single 1 of their remaining 8 games. But they don't just need that to win the title, they need to gain 4 points on us, or 3 points and overturn our superior goal difference. In other words, as I have explained above, in the most obvious and easily calculable permutation they need us to lose 2 games while they win 7 and draw 1. As if that isn't a tough enough ask, Leicester are top of the form guide while we are 2nd (if you exclude the first 4 games, we are actually top) while they are only 7th i the form guide despite being 3rd in the table. There's no jiggery-pockery here, no hocus pocus - these are facts and statistics, nothing more.

While they have a slim chance (and have acknowledged this previously) it is only a slim chance. That is why Leicester are generally priced at close to 1-2 on favourites, our average price is is hovering between 2 1/2 and 3 - 1 against, and the Goons are basically 6 -1 against. Check for yourself:

http://www.bookmakersbetting.co.uk/...5NBbCK3BlZS348nt8bXHDThUzlBUnE6XecxoC5X_w_wcB

There is a reason for their odds being so long in third. No-one with any knowledge of football who has studied the fixtures and form considers them to have that much of a chance, really. A slim chance, just about. But win their game in hand and then making up 8 points on Leicester, who has lost 3 games all season, and 4 points on us, who have lost 4 games all season, with 7 games each to play, while winning every single 1 of their remaining games...and this from a team who have been in relatively poor form?!?!

But it wasn't that you said they had a slim chance to win the title. It was the fact that you are making a convoluted argument to say that it is possible that they win 8 games on the bounce (which everyone including myself has accepted is possible) but then treat as though that is almost certain to happen. So certain, in fact, that you won't even examine their fixtures or the form of either them or the clubs they have to play. Sorry, but it is ludicrous and based solely on an attitude and one you continue to display for all to see with your frequent references to the Gap. Just because we came unstuck then it doesn't mean that they are actually odds-on to win 8 games on the bounce.

You think they are favourites for the title - but the bookmakers, reflecting what the vast majority of the betting public think disagree with you. They have an outside chance, nothing more. There is nothing wrong with your reasoning...until you come to make a conclusion. And then you go from the extreme outside chance that most folk would consider their chances either of winning 8 on the trot and/or the title, to, in your mind, them being almost certain to finish strongly and quite probably win 8 games on the trot. As I have explained before, using stats, fixtures, form and analysis, your are magnifying a slim possibility by the fear you have that mind the gap might be repeated to create an attitude and that is making you grossly exaggerate the chances of this happening while point blank refusing to actually analyse their remaining games no matter how much you are prompted to do so.

I have done all of this previously, so I'm sure that if you wanted to you would have already digested these arguments. So I will restrict myself to looking at the West Ham game. If the Goons lose one single more game, or even draw one, they will need Leicester to lose 4 games out of 7 when previously they have lost 3 games in 31. Leicester are top of the form table. They would also require us (in one obvious permutation) to lose 3 games out of 7, when we have lost 4 out of 31 so far this season, and sit 2nd in the form table. ArseAnal are 7th in the form table. So, already you can see that what are long odds on them winning the title and/or finishing above Leicester, and slightly shorter but still outsider odds for finishing above us, and winning 8 games out of 8, would be much longer if they lose 1 single match more, or even draw 1.

They are 3rd and have to travel (an away game) to West Ham who are fifth. But here's the thing, right: not only is it a difficult game for ArseAnal because they are only 2 places above West Ham, and its an away game, but West Ham are actually above them in the form table. What's more, ArseAnal's away form and performances not been great (even in beating Bournemouth away, they should have had Flamini sent off early on, got two quick and early goals and then spent the rest of the match stretched and overrun and any team with a half decent goalscorer would have scored against them). They have won 2 in the last 6 away from home. I know, not only do I look at the form tables, but I have seen nearly all of their matches. West Ham, on the other hand, while 5th overall in the form guide are probably top on home form. There home form is title winning form. They beat the team in 2nd (that's us) last home game. They are unbeaten at home since 22 August - please think about that. They have won five and drawn one of their last 6 away games. So, aside from the fact that you think they have a very good chance of winning 8 games on the trot because of mind the gap, why do you make the Goons such overwhelming favourites to beat West Ham at Upton Park (or the Boleyn Ground or whatever they are calling the cesspit this week)? Please using logical reasoning and not referring back to however many points they got last season or the season before (unless you are going to apply the same standard to, say, Cheslea) or the fact that you fear them winning 8 on the trot because of mind the gap, can you explain to me why you don't believe it is necessary to look at this game or any other ones in context when you continue to assert that they are favourites to win 8 games out of 8.

You can view the form tables here:

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/form-guide.html

 

[Drink!Drink!]

BBC five live are currently broadcasting live from Leicester, they are also advertising some special documentary about Leicester.



Please can we NOW start the Leicester backlash?

 

[whitesocks]

Ye Gods (of the Gaps)...I have answered all of these things already.

The Goons chances of finishing above Leicester have been analysed most recently by @worcestersauce at the top of this page. They need a team who have lost 3 games in 31 to suddenly lose 3 in 7 while they win every single 1 of their remaining 8 games. But they don't just need that to win the title, they need to gain 4 points on us, or 3 points and overturn our superior goal difference. In other words, as I have explained above, in the most obvious and easily calculable permutation they need us to lose 2 games while they win 7 and draw 1. As if that isn't a tough enough ask, Leicester are top of the form guide while we are 2nd (if you exclude the first 4 games, we are actually top) while they are only 7th i the form guide despite being 3rd in the table. There's no jiggery-pockery here, no hocus pocus - these are facts and statistics, nothing more.

While they have a slim chance (and have acknowledged this previously) it is only a slim chance. That is why Leicester are generally priced at close to 1-2 on favourites, our average price is is hovering between 2 1/2 and 3 - 1 against, and the Goons are basically 6 -1 against. Check for yourself:

http://www.bookmakersbetting.co.uk/...5NBbCK3BlZS348nt8bXHDThUzlBUnE6XecxoC5X_w_wcB

There is a reason for their odds being so long in third. No-one with any knowledge of football who has studied the fixtures and form considers them to have that much of a chance, really. A slim chance, just about. But win their game in hand and then making up 8 points on Leicester, who has lost 3 games all season, and 4 points on us, who have lost 4 games all season, with 7 games each to play, while winning every single 1 of their remaining games...and this from a team who have been in relatively poor form?!?!

But it wasn't that you said they had a slim chance to win the title. It was the fact that you are making a convoluted argument to say that it is possible that they win 8 games on the bounce (which everyone including myself has accepted is possible) but then treat as though that is almost certain to happen. So certain, in fact, that you won't even examine their fixtures or the form of either them or the clubs they have to play. Sorry, but it is ludicrous and based solely on an attitude and one you continue to display for all to see with your frequent references to the Gap. Just because we came unstuck then it doesn't mean that they are actually odds-on to win 8 games on the bounce.

You think they are favourites for the title - but the bookmakers, reflecting what the vast majority of the betting public think disagree with you. They have an outside chance, nothing more. There is nothing wrong with your reasoning...until you come to make a conclusion. And then you go from the extreme outside chance that most folk would consider their chances either of winning 8 on the trot and/or the title, to, in your mind, them being almost certain to finish strongly and quite probably win 8 games on the trot. As I have explained before, using stats, fixtures, form and analysis, your are magnifying a slim possibility by the fear you have that mind the gap might be repeated to create an attitude and that is making you grossly exaggerate the chances of this happening while point blank refusing to actually analyse their remaining games no matter how much you are prompted to do so.

I have done all of this previously, so I'm sure that if you wanted to you would have already digested these arguments. So I will restrict myself to looking at the West Ham game. If the Goons lose one single more game, or even draw one, they will need Leicester to lose 4 games out of 7 when previously they have lost 3 games in 31. Leicester are top of the form table. They would also require us (in one obvious permutation) to lose 3 games out of 7, when we have lost 4 out of 31 so far this season, and sit 2nd in the form table. ArseAnal are 7th in the form table. So, already you can see that what are long odds on them winning the title and/or finishing above Leicester, and slightly shorter but still outsider odds for finishing above us, and winning 8 games out of 8, would be much longer if they lose 1 single match more, or even draw 1.

They are 3rd and have to travel (an away game) to West Ham who are fifth. But here's the thing, right: not only is it a difficult game for ArseAnal because they are only 2 places above West Ham, and its an away game, but West Ham are actually above them in the form table. What's more, ArseAnal's away form and performances not been great (even in beating Bournemouth away, they should have had Flamini sent off early on, got two quick and early goals and then spent the rest of the match stretched and overrun and any team with a half decent goalscorer would have scored against them). They have won 2 in the last 6 away from home. I know, not only do I look at the form tables, but I have seen nearly all of their matches. West Ham, on the other hand, while 5th overall in the form guide are probably top on home form. There home form is title winning form. They beat the team in 2nd (that's us) last home game. They are unbeaten at home since 22 August - please think about that. They have won five and drawn one of their last 6 away games. So, aside from the fact that you think they have a very good chance of winning 8 games on the trot because of mind the gap, why do you make the Goons such overwhelming favourites to beat West Ham at Upton Park (or the Boleyn Ground or whatever they are calling the cesspit this week)? Please using logical reasoning and not referring back to however many points they got last season or the season before (unless you are going to apply the same standard to, say, Cheslea) or the fact that you fear them winning 8 on the trot because of mind the gap, can you explain to me why you don't believe it is necessary to look at this game or any other ones in context when you continue to assert that they are favourites to win 8 games out of 8.

You can view the form tables here:

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/form-guide.html

Your posts are very long but I think we agree that Leicester with a little care, have this wrapped up.
And I think we agree that spurs could well finish second, but for different reasons.
Odds are strange beasts and vary due to who is lumping on rather than the real chance changing.
Arsenal fans have given up, and there is some value in that 6/1 imo, but I suspect their true odds are pretty similar to ours.

I think arsenal will beat wham, as they look a better team with Welbeck up front, and Elneni next to Coquelin looks a solid midfield base. This is a better team than the one that has underperformed so far.
But no, I have made no great study of wham or arsenal, so take that with a pinch of salt.

 

[Sandro30]

Saw this on twitter;

 

[Drink!Drink!]

interesting chart - basically win 5 out of 7 and we'd have a 50/50 chance of being champions, sounds about right.

hard to imagine winning fewer than 5 games would be enough as that would require Leicester to collapse and the scum to be a bit rubbish as well

 

[fletch82]

I think we will end on 77-79 points
What this means as to if we can win it or not only God knows but it's better than our season being over already ,and to be fair anyone at the start of the season saying title challenge would of been laughed off the board and sent to rawk so it's all gravy for me

 

[Larryjanta]

I know it's always said but, really, one game at a time. Liverpool away is probably our second hardest game left. Leicester will be expecting us to lose, it would be a bonus three points and put the pressure on Leicester.

If we can stay within 5 points after United, I'd be happy, cut the gap and, well, I might start to believe.

 

[Sir Henry]

I have a feeling that both of us and lester will lose this weekend.... hope im wrong though.

 

[yiddopaul]

I know it's always said but, really, one game at a time. Liverpool away is probably our second hardest game left. Leicester will be expecting us to lose, it would be a bonus three points and put the pressure on Leicester.

If we can stay within 5 points after United, I'd be happy, cut the gap and, well, I might start to believe.

Liverpool are not all that. They've had a mini revival all against awful opposition, even then I've not been impressed by them, they looked ordinary. I think people are afraid of the name and us historically struggling there. Well, take away their name, and they are just another mid table team. As for our poor results historically at Anfield, I don't think this Spurs team will buckle under the weight of history. Oh, and we're a much better team than them.

 

[Lighty64]

Your posts are very long but I think we agree that Leicester with a little care, have this wrapped up.
And I think we agree that spurs could well finish second, but for different reasons.
Odds are strange beasts and vary due to who is lumping on rather than the real chance changing.
Arsenal fans have given up, and there is some value in that 6/1 imo, but I suspect their true odds are pretty similar to ours.

I think arsenal will beat wham, as they look a better team with Welbeck up front, and Elneni next to Coquelin looks a solid midfield base. This is a better team than the one that has underperformed so far.
But no, I have made no great study of wham or arsenal, so take that with a pinch of salt.

odds are not always on what's bet, after each game week the bookies look at the results and adjust where needed. Leicester were 5000/1 at the start of the season, now if it was a horse and the amount they took on them at the start, that horse would of come down massively, yet Leicester stayed because the bookies never took the bets seriously, and to be honest why would they. (I have worked in the betting industry)

you are entitled to your opinion about Arsenal, they could win all 8, just as we could win all 7 and so could Leicester. Arscums best run this season was 5 wins pretty early in the season, since then their form has dropped, they have 5 very easy home matches, but when they played Swansea on paper that game was a bonus 3pts. Wet Spams home form as has been mentioned has been title winning form, and Arse will have to go out full pelt to win it, as a draw is no good to them, so it definitely not an easy fixture.

Sunderland will only be easy if they get off to a flyer, but a Sunderland goal and it will become very tough. then their final away game v Man C, City's final home game, might need it to secure CL footy, and by then could have all their squad back playing. Arse will also need to win this, so doubt they will sit back and hope to hit City on the break like their last 2 victories v City.

to win the title Arscum have to as good as win their remaining games and hope we drop 7pts (or 4pts if they win their game in hand) and Leicester to drop 12pts (9 if they win their game in hand) . do you really see us and Leicester dropping that many? yes we could drop 4, but with their form I can't see them winning every game

 

[Larryjanta]

Liverpool are not all that. They've had a mini revival all against awful opposition, even then I've not been impressed by them, they looked ordinary. I think people are afraid of the name and us historically struggling there. Well, take away their name, and they are just another mid table team. As for our poor results historically at Anfield, I don't think this Spurs team will buckle under the weight of history. Oh, and we're a much better team than them.

I don't disagree, however, West Ham are also not all that and we know what happened there. On their day, Liverpool can probably beat anyone so we will need to be on it to get something there. No doubt in my mind, we're a better side than them but it's still a tough game and, realistically, them and Chelsea, on paper, are still our two hardest remaining games.

 

[Garageman]

Saw this on twitter;

So five wins and a draw and we have a better than evens chance of getting the title. Sounds about right. I know it's a cliche but all we can do, is just take one game at a time. Let's go to Anfield and aim for three points, take it from there.
Realistically, I see us finishing second, which I'm OK with. Third is possible, so is first. I don't really see us going below third. Third represents a solid season for us.