Tottenham Takeover Talk

[Gb160]

Guys don't forget tonights episode of the Tottenham Hotspur Comedy Club, it airs around 8pm.

 

[Oh Teddy Teddy]

I’m genuinely curious - is there anyone on here who wants Levy and/or ENIC to stay?

Depends. If Mike Ashley decided he was interested, I'd probably revise my opinion

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

The more I think about this - the more complicated it becomes, and the less confident I am that it will ever happen.

On one hand - this could be a relatively straightforward negotiation - find a value for the club that both sides can live with, shake hands, and exchange money.

But, I think ENIC/Lewis Family is a big stumbling block.

After you decide on a valuation - the next thing will be to figure out how to structure the investment. QSI could buy out 25% of ENIC's stake. Under this scenario - all of the money would flow to ENIC, and there would be no guarantee of investment in the club, unless ENIC decided to invest - which they have been reluctant to do over the years. Under this scenario - QSI would be right to question how the club (and their investment) would grow. There are fewer capital projects to grow the club, so most growth would have to come via future broadcast rights - likely, but hardly inspiring for QSI as an investor.

A second option would be for Spurs to sell new shares to QSI. That would put the entire investment into the club to be used in the club - pay down debt, and invest in the squad. From a fan's perspective - this is ideal, and probably what most are expecting when they hear new investors for the club. But, it immediately dilutes ENIC's shares. And now, you have to convince ENIC - Lewis and Family - that they will recoup the dilution via investing in the club which will grow the value of the club. Given that they have largely chosen not to grown the club by investing in it for the last 20 years, that might be a sticking point. From QSI's (or any investor) perspective - this is the most direct path to growing their investment - turn the club into winners, build global support, gain more lucrative sponsors. (This is Spurs advantage to an ego-driven investor - Liverpool or United need investment into infrastructure as much as they need investment into the respective squads)

The third option is the most complicated yet - some hybrid approach where ENIC get paid some, and the club get some investment. Figuring out those percentages are what lawyers and accounts dream about.

But - it gets really complicated after the investment.

What happens when the club needs an another bit of investment to convince Mbappe (insert any superstar player here) to join? If QSI owned the club outright, they could simply provide a cash infusion to cover the costs (within whatever FFP rules are in place.) But, as a minority owner - they would face the same issues as above - any investment will dilute ENIC's shares, and ENIC might not go for that. So, now you have a "Deep pocket" owner who can't actually use his deep pockets. And, so QSI might wonder what is the point in that?

Which then opens the door to some kind of full take over - which may be taking place, either with QSI, or some other Qatari entity designed to get around the two club ownership issue. But, that is the kind of deal that would not take place until the summer - just logistically doing due diligence.

 

[HedgieSpur]

The more I think about this - the more complicated it becomes, and the less confident I am that it will ever happen.

On one hand - this could be a relatively straightforward negotiation - find a value for the club that both sides can live with, shake hands, and exchange money.

But, I think ENIC/Lewis Family is a big stumbling block.

After you decide on a valuation - the next thing will be to figure out how to structure the investment. QSI could buy out 25% of ENIC's stake. Under this scenario - all of the money would flow to ENIC, and there would be no guarantee of investment in the club, unless ENIC decided to invest - which they have been reluctant to do over the years. Under this scenario - QSI would be right to question how the club (and their investment) would grow. There are fewer capital projects to grow the club, so most growth would have to come via future broadcast rights - likely, but hardly inspiring for QSI as an investor.

A second option would be for Spurs to sell new shares to QSI. That would put the entire investment into the club to be used in the club - pay down debt, and invest in the squad. From a fan's perspective - this is ideal, and probably what most are expecting when they hear new investors for the club. But, it immediately dilutes ENIC's shares. And now, you have to convince ENIC - Lewis and Family - that they will recoup the dilution via investing in the club which will grow the value of the club. Given that they have largely chosen not to grown the club by investing in it for the last 20 years, that might be a sticking point. From QSI's (or any investor) perspective - this is the most direct path to growing their investment - turn the club into winners, build global support, gain more lucrative sponsors. (This is Spurs advantage to an ego-driven investor - Liverpool or United need investment into infrastructure as much as they need investment into the respective squads)

The third option is the most complicated yet - some hybrid approach where ENIC get paid some, and the club get some investment. Figuring out those percentages are what lawyers and accounts dream about.

But - it gets really complicated after the investment.

What happens when the club needs an another bit of investment to convince Mbappe (insert any superstar player here) to join? If QSI owned the club outright, they could simply provide a cash infusion to cover the costs (within whatever FFP rules are in place.) But, as a minority owner - they would face the same issues as above - any investment will dilute ENIC's shares, and ENIC might not go for that. So, now you have a "Deep pocket" owner who can't actually use his deep pockets. And, so QSI might wonder what is the point in that?

Which then opens the door to some kind of full take over - which may be taking place, either with QSI, or some other Qatari entity designed to get around the two club ownership issue. But, that is the kind of deal that would not take place until the summer - just logistically doing due diligence.

Great points, well made. I suspect that any “minority stake” will actually be a purview to a future full takeover

 

[For the love of Spurs]

The more I think about this - the more complicated it becomes, and the less confident I am that it will ever happen.

On one hand - this could be a relatively straightforward negotiation - find a value for the club that both sides can live with, shake hands, and exchange money.

But, I think ENIC/Lewis Family is a big stumbling block.

After you decide on a valuation - the next thing will be to figure out how to structure the investment. QSI could buy out 25% of ENIC's stake. Under this scenario - all of the money would flow to ENIC, and there would be no guarantee of investment in the club, unless ENIC decided to invest - which they have been reluctant to do over the years. Under this scenario - QSI would be right to question how the club (and their investment) would grow. There are fewer capital projects to grow the club, so most growth would have to come via future broadcast rights - likely, but hardly inspiring for QSI as an investor.

A second option would be for Spurs to sell new shares to QSI. That would put the entire investment into the club to be used in the club - pay down debt, and invest in the squad. From a fan's perspective - this is ideal, and probably what most are expecting when they hear new investors for the club. But, it immediately dilutes ENIC's shares. And now, you have to convince ENIC - Lewis and Family - that they will recoup the dilution via investing in the club which will grow the value of the club. Given that they have largely chosen not to grown the club by investing in it for the last 20 years, that might be a sticking point. From QSI's (or any investor) perspective - this is the most direct path to growing their investment - turn the club into winners, build global support, gain more lucrative sponsors. (This is Spurs advantage to an ego-driven investor - Liverpool or United need investment into infrastructure as much as they need investment into the respective squads)

The third option is the most complicated yet - some hybrid approach where ENIC get paid some, and the club get some investment. Figuring out those percentages are what lawyers and accounts dream about.

But - it gets really complicated after the investment.

What happens when the club needs an another bit of investment to convince Mbappe (insert any superstar player here) to join? If QSI owned the club outright, they could simply provide a cash infusion to cover the costs (within whatever FFP rules are in place.) But, as a minority owner - they would face the same issues as above - any investment will dilute ENIC's shares, and ENIC might not go for that. So, now you have a "Deep pocket" owner who can't actually use his deep pockets. And, so QSI might wonder what is the point in that?

Which then opens the door to some kind of full take over - which may be taking place, either with QSI, or some other Qatari entity designed to get around the two club ownership issue. But, that is the kind of deal that would not take place until the summer - just logistically doing due diligence.

You have to add to the competition situation. Qatar are huge rivals to the Saudis and Abu Dhabi, they ain’t getting a piece of Tottenham to make money or grow the asset (well maybe long term, very long term), they will want to be the winners, they can’t be humiliated by rivals.

PSG is a big fish, but it sits in a small pond, it’s like Muhammad Ali fighting in the amateur leagues. The prem is where the glory is, if they buy us it will be to become a Man City. So how would ENIC make that fit.

only way I see is a large minority stake with the clear agreed intention to sell PSG and then buy the whole thing. They won’t buy a small stake to watch Levy haggle over Porro with a backline of Dier and Davies and lower their street cred with their Arab rivals.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

I think it was @Trix who mentioned that QSI would want Conte to stay - so I think this next week will give us a clue on how these talks are going.

Under a normal situation - Levy would sack Conte, and certainly not waste transfer resources on players Conte is asking for. So, perhaps backing Conte now is a sign that QSI would back Conte in the summer with significant investment in the players he wants.

 

[ardiles&villa]

That's such an exaggeration. You aren't forced to go. You can chose not to go. I'd assume you are boycotting, immediately?

No one forces me to go, if I feel I'm not getting value, I'll just not renew.

Yeah because it’s as simple as that isn’t it.
What about those of us who have been going there with grand parents, parents who are no longer with us, supporting spurs for so many of us was much more than just paying money and turning up. It actually means something to us on a deeper level. For us to just quit because we don’t think the board is doing it job is something very very hard to take. Instead finding a way of getting the bad management out whether protest or a buy out would be much better for all of us.

 

[Nerine]

I think it was @Trix who mentioned that QSI would want Conte to stay - so I think this next week will give us a clue on how these talks are going.

Under a normal situation - Levy would sack Conte, and certainly not waste transfer resources on players Conte is asking for. So, perhaps backing Conte now is a sign that QSI would back Conte in the summer with significant investment in the players he wants.

Perhaps this is also why Conte seems willing to reevaluate the situation in the summer.

 

[Nick-TopSpursMan]

It's definitely a complex process and could take a while if they decide to go ahead with an initial minority investment.

Particularly if they do a hybrid deal where for example £300-400m goes to ENIC and the other £600-700m goes in to the club as capital.

Beyond that though it would actually be incredibly easy to grow our revenues to a point where we are essentially generating money like City.

Because we have huge matchday revenue (unlike City), we don't need quite the same amount of commercial revenue. This can be seen in the latest Deloitte Money League.

On the surface we made €523m euros to City's €731m euros which you look at and think well that's not getting bridged easily.

But actually it's not that difficult. Firstly those revenues don't include any CL broadcasting or prize money for us as we weren’t in the CL during the 21/22 season. That's instantly around an extra €80m euros at least (this season for example our revenues will have CL money included, so the Deloitte Money League 2024 we will be much higher).

So now we're looking at being around €131m euros behind City. All of a sudden QSI faciliate a stadium naming rights deal of around £500m for 10 years (£50m per season) and that's another €56m revenue closer to City. Takes us up to around €659m euros. Now all that's left for QSI to do is faciliate a new shirt sponsorship and a few other deals which generate an extra bit of money, then added with the teams consistent success and all of a sudden we've very quickly caught up with the number 1 team revenue wise.


That's why we're attractive to people like QSI I'd imagine. Our infrastructure is already in place and we already dine at the top table in terms of revenue, we only require a little push to get us in to the top 3/4 richest teams. Now if you add to the above by saying QSI would inject £600-700m for transfers etc, all of a sudden we can spend massive money on the market whilst also increasing our wage bill significantly due to the revenues I've mentioned.

 

[cider spurs]

It's definitely a complex process and could take a while if they decide to go ahead with an initial minority investment.

Particularly if they do a hybrid deal where for example £300-400m goes to ENIC and the other £600-700m goes in to the club as capital.

Beyond that though it would actually be incredibly easy to grow our revenues to a point where we are essentially generating money like City.

Because we have huge matchday revenue (unlike City), we don't need quite the same amount of commercial revenue. This can be seen in the latest Deloitte Money League.

On the surface we made €523m euros to City's €731m euros which you look at and think well that's not getting bridged easily.

But actually it's not that difficult. Firstly those revenues don't include any CL broadcasting or prize money. That's instantly around an extra €80m euros at least (this season for example our revenues will have CL money included, so the Deloitte Money League 2024 we will be much higher).

So now we're looking at being around €131m euros behind City. All of a sudden QSI faciliate a stadium naming rights deal of around £500m for 10 years (£50m per season) and that's another €56m revenue closer to City. Takes us up to around €659m euros. Now all that's left for QSI to do is faciliate a new shirt sponsorship and a few other deals which generate an extra bit of money, then added with the teams consistent success and all of a sudden we've very quickly caught up with the number 1 team revenue wise.


That's why we're attractive to people like QSI I'd imagine. Our infrastructure is already in place and we already dine at the top table in terms of revenue, we only require a little push to get us in to the top 3/4 richest teams. Now if you add to the above by saying QSI would inject £600-700m for transfers etc, all of a sudden we can spend massive money on the market whilst also increasing our wage bill significantly due to the revenues I've mentioned.

Would City's revenue not increase also if the Champions league money hasn't been added.

 

[Albertbarich]

It's definitely a complex process and could take a while if they decide to go ahead with an initial minority investment.

Particularly if they do a hybrid deal where for example £300-400m goes to ENIC and the other £600-700m goes in to the club as capital.

Beyond that though it would actually be incredibly easy to grow our revenues to a point where we are essentially generating money like City.

Because we have huge matchday revenue (unlike City), we don't need quite the same amount of commercial revenue. This can be seen in the latest Deloitte Money League.

On the surface we made €523m euros to City's €731m euros which you look at and think well that's not getting bridged easily.

But actually it's not that difficult. Firstly those revenues don't include any CL broadcasting or prize money. That's instantly around an extra €80m euros at least (this season for example our revenues will have CL money included, so the Deloitte Money League 2024 we will be much higher).

So now we're looking at being around €131m euros behind City. All of a sudden QSI faciliate a stadium naming rights deal of around £500m for 10 years (£50m per season) and that's another €56m revenue closer to City. Takes us up to around €659m euros. Now all that's left for QSI to do is faciliate a new shirt sponsorship and a few other deals which generate an extra bit of money, then added with the teams consistent success and all of a sudden we've very quickly caught up with the number 1 team revenue wise.


That's why we're attractive to people like QSI I'd imagine. Our infrastructure is already in place and we already dine at the top table in terms of revenue, we only require a little push to get us in to the top 3/4 richest teams. Now if you add to the above by saying QSI would inject £600-700m for transfers etc, all of a sudden we can spend massive money on the market whilst also increasing our wage bill significantly due to the revenues I've mentioned.

Unbelievable that we could match city's income with genuine income.

Knock levy all you want ( and I do) but this is another level of business strategy. Bear in mind most of City commercial income is made up bollocks, were a machine.

Just need a footballing strategy to match it.

 

[Oh Teddy Teddy]

Would City's revenue not increase also if the Champions league money hasn't been added.

Might be very mistaken, but the figures referenced for City would include the CL money as they were in the competition the year these figures are taken from. We, meanwhile, were being unceremoniously thrown out of the Europe III competition.

 

[cider spurs]

Might be very mistaken, but the figures referenced for City would include the CL money as they were in the competition the year these figures are taken from. We, meanwhile, were being unceremoniously thrown out of the Europe III competition.

Ah yes, my bad. Thanks.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

Unbelievable that we could match city's income with genuine income.

Well, it would not be "genuine income" - it would require a stadium naming rights deal in the area of £50M/year - which is well above the going rate.

And it would require a new shirt deal - well above the going rate.

And it would require an owner willing to provide cash over several window so we can compete for the top players.


Levy/ENIC on their own, won't get close to City's total revenue. And therein lies the rub.

 

[vegassd]

So now we're looking at being around €131m euros behind City. All of a sudden QSI faciliate a stadium naming rights deal of around £500m for 10 years (£50m per season) and that's another €56m revenue closer to City. Takes us up to around €659m euros. Now all that's left for QSI to do is faciliate a new shirt sponsorship and a few other deals which generate an extra bit of money, then added with the teams consistent success and all of a sudden we've very quickly caught up with the number 1 team revenue wise.

That's all well and good, but there's no point generating those revenues if they aren't going to be spent well. If I was investing £1bn into the club I would want some assurances that the money is going to be spent making the team competitive, and it would appear that there are a few roadblocks in the way of that as things stand.

 

[spursfan77]

Surprising this hasn’t been passed over from COYS. If accurate, it isn’t good news at all. But not completely unexpected either. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is true.

, Prof said:

”You’d be amazed (or perhaps you wouldn’t) how important it is to DL to stay on as chairman, which was/is/will be an unacceptable condition to an entity that wants to buy the entire club. He’s got more chance of achieving that goal if he can convince an entity to buy a minority stake”

It‘s going to be up to him isn’t it. Damn.

 

[sparx100]

Brazil’s number 9 says hello (and does a pigeon dance).

I think this is fair. I don't think he will be able to replicate the goals of Kane and very few would so it is now that we should be thinking about changing the dynamic of the team to create more opportunities and for more of the team to contribute.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

Surprising this hasn’t been passed over from COYS. If accurate, it isn’t good news at all. But not completely unexpected either. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is true.

, Prof said:

”You’d be amazed (or perhaps you wouldn’t) how important it is to DL to stay on as chairman, which was/is/will be an unacceptable condition to an entity that wants to buy the entire club. He’s got more chance of achieving that goal if he can convince an entity to buy a minority stake”

It‘s going to be up to him isn’t it. Damn.

Its been posted.

 

[Dakes]

Surprising this hasn’t been passed over from COYS. If accurate, it isn’t good news at all. But not completely unexpected either. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is true.

, Prof said:

”You’d be amazed (or perhaps you wouldn’t) how important it is to DL to stay on as chairman, which was/is/will be an unacceptable condition to an entity that wants to buy the entire club. He’s got more chance of achieving that goal if he can convince an entity to buy a minority stake”

It‘s going to be up to him isn’t it. Damn.

Being discussed in the Ousting thread.

 

[spursfan77]

Its been posted.

cheers. Its shit news. I wasn’t sure whether to share it or not.