When should a player break into the first team?

[spurs9]

Great post.

Thirdly, I don't subscribe to the view that players show massive improvement after a certain age. Some players do improve with age but most improvements are very subtle or are more down to improved confidence than an actual physical increase in ability. Actual on the ball skills rarely improve past the teenage years. A 19 year old winger who is a very poor crosser won't suddenly become a good crosser. At best he'll end up just a poor crosser. It's why I don't truly subscribe to the theory that Managers improve or ruin players. Managers can improve confidence in a player (and confidence is a big part of success) or even more importantly play to that players strengths but do they actually improve their game? Again I think such improvements would be very subtle. There are obvious exceptions to the former but they are exceptions and not the norm. Also when you drill down with the exceptions you find something in hindsight as to why that player appeared to be a late developer. E.g. Drogba who was playing at full back.

Completely disagree with this. Players improve all the time. There is a reason Ronaldo trains 2 hours longer than the rest of the team, that is beacuse he wants to be the best he can be. Why would he train longer than anyone else if he couldn't improve?

Bale improved his long distance shooting immensely at the age of 23.

The problem is players who don't improve either have the wrong mentality and subscribe to the notion that talent is all you need (AKA Fixed Mindset) or are happy with there level and don't want to do anything but the bare minimum.

 

[Sevens]

Completely disagree with this. Players improve all the time. There is a reason Ronaldo trains 2 hours longer than the rest of the team, that is beacuse he wants to be the best he can be. Why would he train longer than anyone else if he couldn't improve?

Bale improved his long distance shooting immensely at the age of 23.

The problem is players who don't improve either have the wrong mentality and subscribe to the notion that talent is all you need (AKA Fixed Mindset) or are happy with there level and don't want to do anything but the bare minimum.

I think you need to train to be the best you can be, but there is still a finite level that can be reached regardless of how much someone trains. Andros Townsend could train just like Ronaldo but still be nowhere near as good. Ronaldo at 18 may have been the step over king, but he was also one of the top ten players in the Premiership already and probably the best wide man in the league even at 18.

I do believe if a player slacks in training then they'll lose form for sure. They need to train to be their best. I actually think a lot of players go backwards in their early 20's. Probably because they think they've made it and don't give it their all training anymore (or because they're up late at night etc.) then many of them then mature and seemingly improve. But in reality their improvement sees them get back to their late teens/early 20's level of performance. I think this is especially true of attacking players.

 

[Sevens]

@Sevens

I don't disagree with what you have said except in one area, improvement.

From a physiological and techinical perspective a player can improve dramatically through improved intellegence on the pitch. Making the right pass at the right time is not a talent but a skill that must be honed by tuning your decision making skills. When a player becomes experienced enough to read the environment at speed he will instinctively know what to do and the pass is made without even thinking. In this sense, having a coach who is can teach positional awareness, passing choices, defending, and protection of the ball can turn a good talented youngster into a very efficient professional. In that sense, huge improvements are made through coaching and that is why our national game is flagging behind Spain, Holland and Germany, because the sport is more about intelligence and less about physique than it ever has been before and we just don't seem to focus on these areas.

Those players that can't improve their footballing intelligence are usually the ones with short careers.

I think the disagreement here is more the level of performance. I said I don't believe players can make a massive improvement. I don't think a good 20 year old will be a world class 25 year old for example.

To sling out an arbitrary figure I'd say that as long as the youngster had given it his all up until that point they're 90% of the player they're going to become by the time they are 20. Obviously that last 10% is still significant but isn't ever going to be enough to transform a Championship level player into a top class Premiership player regardless of how much they train or who is coaching them.

 

[Locotoro]

I think the disagreement here is more the level of performance. I said I don't believe players can make a massive improvement. I don't think a good 20 year old will be a world class 25 year old for example.

To sling out an arbitrary figure I'd say that as long as the youngster had given it his all up until that point they're 90% of the player they're going to become by the time they are 20. Obviously that last 10% is still significant but isn't ever going to be enough to transform a Championship level player into a top class Premiership player regardless of how much they train or who is coaching them.

Again I don't think I agree.

There are positions/roles on the pitch that require more mental/ tactical and proactive application than physical or what I would call reactive skills. One of the main reasons that players who's role heavily relies on positional awareness (such as defenders) don't peak until they are in their late 20's and early 30's is because it requires far more thought and mental control than playing on the wing. Being able to decide when to hold the line, when to attack the ball, how close to mark an opposing player are all cognitive processes that come from surveying the environment in large scale and processing potential movements of others on the field. This comes from experience and can be accelerated via good coaching (whatever that might be).

I would submit that the players that excel in these areas of the game are usually considered late bloomers. Consider Miroslav Klose: part time bricklayer at 20 and playing for the reserves of an equivalent German conference side. Fast forward 6 to 8 years and he's scoring 5 goals in a World Cup match for Germany. Rikkie Lambert didnt play Premier League until he was 30 and was arguably one of Southampton's best performers last season. Even someone as good as Van Nistlerooy, who was considered one of the best goalscorers of his time, was still playing second tier Dutch Football at 20.

Football is littered with players who don't make a debut until 21-24 and then excel late into their career, they all have something in common - they are intelligent players.

 

[Sevens]

Again I don't think I agree.

There are positions/roles on the pitch that require more mental/ tactical and proactive application than physical or what I would call reactive skills. One of the main reasons that players who's role heavily relies on positional awareness (such as defenders) don't peak until they are in their late 20's and early 30's is because it requires far more thought and mental control than playing on the wing. Being able to decide when to hold the line, when to attack the ball, how close to mark an opposing player are all cognitive processes that come from surveying the environment in large scale and processing potential movements of others on the field. This comes from experience and can be accelerated via good coaching (whatever that might be).

I would submit that the players that excel in these areas of the game are usually considered late bloomers. Consider Miroslav Klose: part time bricklayer at 20 and playing for the reserves of an equivalent German conference side. Fast forward 6 to 8 years and he's scoring 5 goals in a World Cup match for Germany. Rikkie Lambert didnt play Premier League until he was 30 and was arguably one of Southampton's best performers last season. Even someone as good as Van Nistlerooy, who was considered one of the best goalscorers of his time, was still playing second tier Dutch Football at 20.

Football is littered with players who don't make a debut until 21-24 and then excel late into their career, they all have something in common - they are intelligent players.

Rickie Lambert is a good example but the others were from years ago now. Things have moved on drastically at youth level from even 10 years ago. In the past many players were missed or passed over before coming back through the ranks. But quite often it was because they were being played out of position or not utilised correctly. Naturally it also depends on who is in front of them in the pecking order. At a big club with great players a youngster probably won't make the break through until slightly later.

But even Rickie Lambert is hardly an awe inspiring player. Certainly not international quality, despite winning caps for England.

In terms of natural ability I think the players at the top are simply gifted beyond belief. But for the others there isn't a lot to choose between them. I was speaking to a coach of a Premiership club once and he told me that in terms of pure ability there were players in League Two that had what it took to be a Premiership player. They had the ability but they simply didn't have the professionalism or desire. He also said that once you fall out of the top of the tree it is hard to get back there simply because what players learn from the most is each other. Players improve one another far more than coaches do. It is possible that later in life those players may develop that mind set. For many it's simply too late but some do make it. But that's not because there has been an improvement in their ability. They've just finally fulfilled their potential.

 

[SpursOldBoy]

Klose broke the goal scoring record at the last World Cup. He is hardly 'way in the past'.

I agree that there are definitely physical limitations to what a player can achieve but the old adage 'practice makes perfect' applies to most players. Beckham is another example of someone with a limited skills set, who through hard work perfected the things he could do well

 

[Locotoro]

Rickie Lambert is a good example but the others were from years ago now. Things have moved on drastically at youth level from even 10 years ago. In the past many players were missed or passed over before coming back through the ranks. But quite often it was because they were being played out of position or not utilised correctly. Naturally it also depends on who is in front of them in the pecking order. At a big club with great players a youngster probably won't make the break through until slightly later.

But even Rickie Lambert is hardly an awe inspiring player. Certainly not international quality, despite winning caps for England.

In terms of natural ability I think the players at the top are simply gifted beyond belief. But for the others there isn't a lot to choose between them. I was speaking to a coach of a Premiership club once and he told me that in terms of pure ability there were players in League Two that had what it took to be a Premiership player. They had the ability but they simply didn't have the professionalism or desire. He also said that once you fall out of the top of the tree it is hard to get back there simply because what players learn from the most is each other. Players improve one another far more than coaches do. It is possible that later in life those players may develop that mind set. For many it's simply too late but some do make it. But that's not because there has been an improvement in their ability. They've just finally fulfilled their potential.

Again, parts i agree with and parts I don't.

Late bloomers more likely at bigger clubs? - Yep I agree, less chance to get an opportunity so its logical.

Rickie Lambert is hardly awe inspiring? Yep but unfortunately this is what England have to call on - his ability should not be compared to previous players but against who he is currently competing with.

Determination and drive is required to succeed - Yes, 100% yes. In fact I would go so far as to say that a player's drive and determination is 99% of the reason for development.

A late bloomer is simply a player fulfilling their potential - No, I don't buy into this potential nonsense. A player may have certain physical attributes that make him better equipped to deal with incorporating the required skills but to say that said player has a finite level of potential which is measured in talent is complete nonsense.

You look at the elite level of any sport and you have a few individuals that rise to the top and then take the top level even higher - people like Messi and Ronaldo, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Ben Ainsley, David Beckham, Floyd Mayweather. If you look at the career history of anyone of these guys and look into how they have risen to the top and beyond there is one indisputable, irrefutable, undeniable common trait - and that is an unquenching, disgustingly steely determination and work ethic. It is knowledge that to become a master you must master the basics every single day. Talent will take you one step forward in a hundred mile journey.

Now, that does not mean that there aren't players that have a poor work ethic and live off the back of that talent.In most instances they are players that have been given the chance because somewhere a coach has seen this 16 year old and thought he could be the next *insert star name here* and that player has been thrust into the limelight. More often than not, those players will fall out by the time they get to 21 or 22.

 

[Sevens]

Klose broke the goal scoring record at the last World Cup. He is hardly 'way in the past'.

I agree that there are definitely physical limitations to what a player can achieve but the old adage 'practice makes perfect' applies to most players. Beckham is another example of someone with a limited skills set, who through hard work perfected the things he could do well

Klose is still a 90's generation player. Feels like he has been around for an eternity.....

 

[stevespurs]

I suppose a simplistic way to look at it could be by looking at the average ages of the world cup teams. Even breaking it down further to average age of the different positions. You would expect goalkeepers and central defenders to be the oldest, followed by the centre forward?

This could give a rule of thumb to base our expectation on?

Different countries would have different average ages too, I think the african nation are generally earlier with their physical development. White anglo kids are often only hitting their physical peak 25-27, whereas some of the Samoan, Maori or Tongans could be at their peak 18-22.

Many ball skills are set up from a very early age, and honed throughout the teens, and are not often improved after that. Positional play and concentration, adaptation to training and coaches/team mates often improve later in a players career.

 

[Larryjanta]

I suppose a simplistic way to look at it could be by looking at the average ages of the world cup teams. Even breaking it down further to average age of the different positions. You would expect goalkeepers and central defenders to be the oldest, followed by the centre forward?

This could give a rule of thumb to base our expectation on?

Different countries would have different average ages too, I think the african nation are generally earlier with their physical development. White anglo kids are often only hitting their physical peak 25-27, whereas some of the Samoan, Maori or Tongans could be at their peak 18-22.

Many ball skills are set up from a very early age, and honed throughout the teens, and are not often improved after that. Positional play and concentration, adaptation to training and coaches/team mates often improve later in a players career.

As a man who works with stats, if someone had the time and inclination to do that, I would be absolutely delighted.

Also worth looking at what age each player for the top 6 teams across each top division broke into the first team at a top flight club. I wish I had the time to do that as it would provide a neat benchmark.

 

[Sevens]

I suppose a simplistic way to look at it could be by looking at the average ages of the world cup teams. Even breaking it down further to average age of the different positions. You would expect goalkeepers and central defenders to be the oldest, followed by the centre forward?

This could give a rule of thumb to base our expectation on?

Different countries would have different average ages too, I think the african nation are generally earlier with their physical development. White anglo kids are often only hitting their physical peak 25-27, whereas some of the Samoan, Maori or Tongans could be at their peak 18-22.

Many ball skills are set up from a very early age, and honed throughout the teens, and are not often improved after that. Positional play and concentration, adaptation to training and coaches/team mates often improve later in a players career.

It's a nice idea. However I am a great believer in "freak" generations when it comes to international football.

People in England (and probably elsewhere) obsess about how did Spain get so good? How did France get so good? How did Germany get so good? Are we being left behind etc. etc. The truth as I see it is that these things just seem to come together. A great team emerges, lasts a few years and then next thing you know that country has to wait another couple of decades to get anywhere near that level of talent again. History is littered with international teams like this. Quite often the difference between an excellent international team and an all time great international team is the emergence of one young superstar.

I think most of these teams tend to be created when you have one or two quality existing players from the earlier generation still around and then all of a sudden you have an influx of younger players over a two or three year period. It's certainly what happened to Germany at the last World Cup with your Lahm's and Schweinsteiger's being part of a young hopeful generation that didn't really do it and then all of a sudden you have younger players like Kroos, Muller and Draxler who all appeared at the right time.

You also see it with lesser international teams who punch above their weight for five or six years. They seem to get a great crop of players come through all at once and then disappear back into the wilderness once that era passes.

To a lesser extent it also happens at club level. I remember people marvelling at the Man Utd youth structure when it churned out Giggs, Scholes, Beckham, Neville and Butt. People were still talking about it a decade later by which time Utd hadn't really pumped anymore out. The truth simply was that Utd youth team was a freak and certainly not the norm.

 

[Locotoro]

It's a nice idea. However I am a great believer in "freak" generations when it comes to international football.

People in England (and probably elsewhere) obsess about how did Spain get so good? How did France get so good? How did Germany get so good? Are we being left behind etc. etc. The truth as I see it is that these things just seem to come together. A great team emerges, lasts a few years and then next thing you know that country has to wait another couple of decades to get anywhere near that level of talent again. History is littered with international teams like this. Quite often the difference between an excellent international team and an all time great international team is the emergence of one young superstar.

I think most of these teams tend to be created when you have one or two quality existing players from the earlier generation still around and then all of a sudden you have an influx of younger players over a two or three year period. It's certainly what happened to Germany at the last World Cup with your Lahm's and Schweinsteiger's being part of a young hopeful generation that didn't really do it and then all of a sudden you have younger players like Kroos, Muller and Draxler who all appeared at the right time.

You also see it with lesser international teams who punch above their weight for five or six years. They seem to get a great crop of players come through all at once and then disappear back into the wilderness once that era passes.

To a lesser extent it also happens at club level. I remember people marvelling at the Man Utd youth structure when it churned out Giggs, Scholes, Beckham, Neville and Butt. People were still talking about it a decade later by which time Utd hadn't really pumped anymore out. The truth simply was that Utd youth team was a freak and certainly not the norm.

I seem to be partially agreeing with you on a number of things on this issue.

Do you not think the "freak generation" is more to do with an adaptation in the coaching or scouting systems than the players themselves? I certainly do. Man Utd's "Fergie's Fledglings" was certainly the fruits of the work carried out by Eric Harrison in the Man Utd youth setup and by Fergie in increasing the club's scouting network substantially rather than being freakish in ability. They brought in players with the right mentality and drilled them. You might remember that a number of "more talented" players from that era didn't last too long, namely Ben Thornley, John o'Kane, Chris Casper.

 

[yankspurs]

When they are ready for it in their development and intelligent enough.

I'd think the next one to break through is KWP, solely because he is available for Europa and Ceballos isnt. May very well be today when he breaks through. Ceballos will break through soon, I think.

Maybe Onomah, Veljkovic and Pritchard will break through this season also.