Rotation

[gregga]

A lot was said last year about how Harry's refusal to rotate constituted one of the main factors contributing to our disastrous loss of form from February onwards, ultimately resulting in our failure to qualify for the Champions League.

What's more, in the midst of the current AVB love-in (which I embrace whole-heartedly btw!), our young manager has (for what it's worth) been portrayed as the Anti-Harry: thinking rather than feeling; using analysis rather than intuition; and relying on meticulous preparation, as opposed to telling the players to "fackin' round around a bit".

Now as part of this I've seen a few references to AVB's tendancy to rotate. I was therefore curious as to whether AVB has in fact been rotating, and therefore decided to put together the following crude analysis.

Basically I've looked at the minutes played by the core of the squad, comprising 18 outfield players (I don't think GK rotation is really relevant for these purposes), and ignored those accounted for by players whose playing time was only marginal.

I've also only counted PL statistics (as they are more readily available), which may be misleading as most of AVB's key players have also played in the EL, which was not the case under Harry.

Now it's slightly meaningless to look at how the seasons compare for each player, as the makeup of the squad is slightlly different from last season, and players invariably get injured. As such, listed below is the total number of minutes played by the squad for the past two seasons, and a mins-per-game figure to enable some sort of comparison. Along with this I've included the average minutes played by the 10 most frequently-played players, which I feel gives some idea of how much the respective managers have rotated their first choice outfield players (ignoring of course their starting positions).

SEASON 2012/2013:

Lennon -- 2,001 -- 91
Walker -- 1,913 -- 87
Defoe -- 1,881 -- 86
Vertonghen -- 1,800 -- 82
Sandro -- 1,779 -- 81
Bale -- 1,665 -- 76
Gallas -- 1,513 -- 69
Dembele -- 1,240 -- 56
Dempsey -- 1,184 -- 54
Caulker -- 1,124 -- 51
Adebayor -- 808 -- 37
Naughton -- 744 -- 34
Dawson -- 703 -- 32
Sigurdsson -- 652 -- 30
Huddlestone -- 537 -- 24
Livermore -- 327 -- 15
Assou-Ekotto -- 295 -- 13
Parker -- 200 -- 9

Average for top 10 players: 73 mins

SEASON 2011/2012:

Walker -- 3227 -- 85
Bale -- 3216 -- 85
Modric -- 3214 -- 85
Assou-Ekotto -- 2957 -- 78
Kaboul -- 2901 -- 76
Adebayor -- 2827 -- 74
Parker -- 2467 -- 65
VdV -- 2331 -- 61
King -- 1795 -- 47
Lennon -- 1571 -- 41
Sandro -- 1411 -- 37
Gallas -- 1322 -- 35
Defoe -- 1301 -- 34
Livermore -- 854 -- 22
Kranjcar -- 645 -- 17
Dawson -- 549 -- 14
Saha -- 400 -- 11
Rose -- 313 -- 8

Average for top 10 players: 70 mins​

As can be seen above, this simple analysis suggests that AVB has in fact used his squad less than Harry did last season (in the PL at least, though given AVB's selection policy in the EL I imagine this might make his tendency to rotate even less apparent than his predecessor's). The average minutes for AVB's top players is higher, counterbalanced to some extent by the fact that 10 players in this season's squad have averaged more than 45 minutes per game, whereas only 9 did last season. In any event the difference between the two isn't that great.

This might surprise some people given that: (i) AVB has a reputation for meticulous planning, and might be expected to monitor his players' stats more closely, in order to ensure that they aren't being burnt out; and (ii) unlike AVB, 'arry had clear favourites that he appeared to stick with through thick and thin.

Now these conclusions are most likely premature, in fact I would point to the fact that: (i) AVB has been more injury-constrained in his selections this season; and (ii) it's only February, so Harry's stats will be influenced by the fact that the 2011/2012 statistics reflect the natural rotation that results from a full season's worth of injuries etc.. As such we must wait until the end of the season to judge whether AVB does in fact use his squad better (though obviously, operating with different squads, a like-for-like comparison between the two is impossible).

What the above does show, however, is that reputations can perhaps cloud people's judgments, as by this point last season most of us on here were clamouring for Harry to bring other players into the first 11, whereas under AVB not many seem concerned that Lennon has played nearly every single minute of every PL game.

Perhaps the above analysis is too crude to be of much use (I'm no statistician, and would welcome any suggestions as to how best interpret the data), but I certainly would welcome any thoughts people have on this issue, particularly as key players such as Lennon could be at risk of burnout whilst others such Sigurdsson linger on the bench.

 

[Pete Spur]

Alot of AVBs decisions have been influenced by all the fecking injuries we've had this season. I'd suggest to get a better scope of how much better he is at rotating the squad you would need to include all the competative fixtures over a more sustained period of time. You also have to take into account how the team plays when rotating players in and out. It's all good rotating alot but if you keep playing crap you're not doing it right.

 

[chrissivad]

BAE, Parker and probably Adebayor minuite count will go up a lot (When Ade is back) for the rest of the season.

Sandro and eitehr Walker or Naughton's will drop the more game time BAE gets.
With Ade back, Defoe might not get as much game time, or one of the midfielder game time will be mire limited as well.
Because of Injury AVB hasnt had much chance to rotate in certain areas.

 

[Legacy]

Lennon (no backup), Walker (Naughton and Smith unavailable), Defoe (Adebayor largely unavailable), Vertonghen (having to cover at both centre back and left back due to Kaboul and Assou Ekotto being unavailable), Sandro (Parker unavailable) and Bale (no backup) are obviously going to have seen more game time than the manager may have liked at this point in the season due to circumstances beyond his control.

I think you take note of the way he's picked his centre backs in recent weeks that AVB would rotate players where possible. The rotation of Dempsey and Sigurdsson seems to allude to this too. But obviously, the manager is smart enough to not rotate a top performing player (Lennon, Bale, Sandro) for someone who'd be a significant drop in quality (Townsend, Livermore etc).

It'd be very interesting to see how AVB selects his first team when he's got nearly a full strength squad to pick from.

 

[sloth]

A lot was said last year about how Harry's refusal to rotate constituted one of the main factors contributing to our disastrous loss of form from February onwards, ultimately resulting in our failure to qualify for the Champions League.

What's more, in the midst of the current AVB love-in (which I embrace whole-heartedly btw!), our young manager has (for what it's worth) been portrayed as the Anti-Harry: thinking rather than feeling; using analysis rather than intuition; and relying on meticulous preparation, as opposed to telling the players to "fackin' round around a bit".

Now as part of this I've seen a few references to AVB's tendancy to rotate. I was therefore curious as to whether AVB has in fact been rotating, and therefore decided to put together the following crude analysis.

Basically I've looked at the minutes played by the core of the squad, comprising 18 outfield players (I don't think GK rotation is really relevant for these purposes), and ignored those accounted for by players whose playing time was only marginal.

I've also only counted PL statistics (as they are more readily available), which may be misleading as most of AVB's key players have also played in the EL, which was not the case under Harry.

Now it's slightly meaningless to look at how the seasons compare for each player, as the makeup of the squad is slightlly different from last season, and players invariably get injured. As such, listed below is the total number of minutes played by the squad for the past two seasons, and a mins-per-game figure to enable some sort of comparison. Along with this I've included the average minutes played by the 10 most frequently-played players, which I feel gives some idea of how much the respective managers have rotated their first choice outfield players (ignoring of course their starting positions).

SEASON 2012/2013:

Lennon -- 2,001 -- 91
Walker -- 1,913 -- 87
Defoe -- 1,881 -- 86
Vertonghen -- 1,800 -- 82
Sandro -- 1,779 -- 81
Bale -- 1,665 -- 76
Gallas -- 1,513 -- 69
Dembele -- 1,240 -- 56
Dempsey -- 1,184 -- 54
Caulker -- 1,124 -- 51
Adebayor -- 808 -- 37
Naughton -- 744 -- 34
Dawson -- 703 -- 32
Sigurdsson -- 652 -- 30
Huddlestone -- 537 -- 24
Livermore -- 327 -- 15
Assou-Ekotto -- 295 -- 13
Parker -- 200 -- 9

Average for top 10 players: 73 mins

SEASON 2011/2012:

Walker -- 3227 -- 85
Bale -- 3216 -- 85
Modric -- 3214 -- 85
Assou-Ekotto -- 2957 -- 78
Kaboul -- 2901 -- 76
Adebayor -- 2827 -- 74
Parker -- 2467 -- 65
VdV -- 2331 -- 61
King -- 1795 -- 47
Lennon -- 1571 -- 41
Sandro -- 1411 -- 37
Gallas -- 1322 -- 35
Defoe -- 1301 -- 34
Livermore -- 854 -- 22
Kranjcar -- 645 -- 17
Dawson -- 549 -- 14
Saha -- 400 -- 11
Rose -- 313 -- 8

Average for top 10 players: 70 mins

As can be seen above, this simple analysis suggests that AVB has in fact used his squad less than Harry did last season (in the PL at least, though given AVB's selection policy in the EL I imagine this might make his tendency to rotate even less apparent than his predecessor's). The average minutes for AVB's top players is higher, counterbalanced to some extent by the fact that 10 players in this season's squad have averaged more than 45 minutes per game, whereas only 9 did last season. In any event the difference between the two isn't that great.

This might surprise some people given that: (i) AVB has a reputation for meticulous planning, and might be expected to monitor his players' stats more closely, in order to ensure that they aren't being burnt out; and (ii) unlike AVB, 'arry had clear favourites that he appeared to stick with through thick and thin.

Now these conclusions are most likely premature, in fact I would point to the fact that: (i) AVB has been more injury-constrained in his selections this season; and (ii) it's only February, so Harry's stats will be influenced by the fact that the 2011/2012 statistics reflect the natural rotation that results from a full season's worth of injuries etc.. As such we must wait until the end of the season to judge whether AVB does in fact use his squad better (though obviously, operating with different squads, a like-for-like comparison between the two is impossible).

What the above does show, however, is that reputations can perhaps cloud people's judgments, as by this point last season most of us on here were clamouring for Harry to bring other players into the first 11, whereas under AVB not many seem concerned that Lennon has played nearly every single minute of every PL game.

Perhaps the above analysis is too crude to be of much use (I'm no statistician, and would welcome any suggestions as to how best interpret the data), but I certainly would welcome any thoughts people have on this issue, particularly as key players such as Lennon could be at risk of burnout whilst others such Sigurdsson linger on the bench.

You rotate when you have a settled team and playing style to try and get the whole squad familiar with what the coach wants, and with playing together. When half the team is new to the club, and the coach is new, with new methods and philosophy on the game the only way to get the teamto adapt to new tactics and requirements is to play your main players as often as you can. You lose because players will lack intensity later in the season, and when injuries come there be some players who come in who will have had less game time (same as the complaints re Harry), but this is balanced by the gain in having a cohesive unit.

In summary, AVB was correct in his approach this year, next season expect to see him rotate much more.

 

[Strikeb4ck]

Lennon (no backup)...Bale (no backup)

 

[beats1]

I would of like to see AVB give Carroll, Townsend, Mason and Falque more playing time, none are youth players, all are talented and all proven to be good at least at championship level except falque who has probably had the best cameo's this season

Playing Sig on the wing over Falque and Townsend never made any sense to me and Sig, didnt do well until he swapped positions with Dempsey who then looked shit until they swapped again. We need to loan these players out for our sake and their's, more worryingly, is the fact Chelsea went one a slide under AVB between end of january and beginning of March, which wouldn't be that bad if we hadnt of had a second half of the season slide for the last 3 seasons.

In the Champions league season we had Pav, Bale and Eidur come in and inject some life in to our season as well as Kaboul coming when we need him. We need the same to happen again especially that season at halfway point we just lost Benny for a month and our best player in the first half of the season(lennon). Which at the moment has just happened again with Sandro being injured and losing Ade.

 

[gregga]

You rotate when you have a settled team and playing style to try and get the whole squad familiar with what the coach wants, and with playing together. When half the team is new to the club, and the coach is new, with new methods and philosophy on the game the only way to get the teamto adapt to new tactics and requirements is to play your main players as often as you can. You lose because players will lack intensity later in the season, and when injuries come there be some players who come in who will have had less game time (same as the complaints re Harry), but this is balanced by the gain in having a cohesive unit.

In summary, AVB was correct in his approach this year, next season expect to see him rotate much more.

Sloth this is a good point and one I hadn't really considered.

Nevertheless, I find it hard to imagine AVB resting Bale or Lennon even once his system has been fully established (if it hasn't already). I appreciate we have pretty much no experienced pace on the bench but I'm still a little surprised that he hasn't seen the value in mixing things up a little bit.

 

[jimmy_the_yid]

I haven't fully thought this through, but my instinct tells me that rotation is more important from February onwards, I think we might see it a bit more soon!

 

[Gedson100]

When we're back to playing in the Europa League will be the acid test.

It'll be hard to justify playing Tom Carroll (no offence meant) in a knockout match but we need to hope there are enough comfortable second legs or FA Cup ties to rotate.

We are fortunate that in defence we are pretty fluid and have few concerns whatever back 4 is sent out. That is a seriously good thing.
The front 6 is more of a problem, and obviously where a Holtby or A.N. Striker could be so crucial.

These, injuries permitting, should still have afair bit of gas in the tank:

Dembele -- 1,240 -- 56
Dempsey -- 1,184 -- 54
Adebayor -- 808 -- 37
Sigurdsson -- 652 -- 30
Parker -- 200 -- 9

Defoe, Lennon, Bale have all put in shifts this year.
In the form we're in I think we can rotate out wingers and forwards without too much harm, but the loss of Sandro does make any back up in the centre look deficient.

 

[Mr-T]

Huddlestone may still have a part to play this season if Parker needs to be rested. Partnered with Dembele he'd be perfectly capable against most opposition.

 

[nialsy2005]

Dont think lewis hamilton can play on the wing mate....

 

[vegassd]

Now these conclusions are most likely premature, in fact I would point to the fact that: (i) AVB has been more injury-constrained in his selections this season; and (ii) it's only February, so Harry's stats will be influenced by the fact that the 2011/2012 statistics reflect the natural rotation that results from a full season's worth of injuries etc.. As such we must wait until the end of the season to judge whether AVB does in fact use his squad better (though obviously, operating with different squads, a like-for-like comparison between the two is impossible).

Good stat-hunting gregga, but I think this point is the most critical one. With the injuries and lack of depth we have had up front I think that AVB has had his hands tied more so than Redknapp. And it will be from Feb/Mar onwards were the true fatigue will start to set in and we will want to rotate a bit more.

I am a bit concerned that Townsend and Falque haven't been giving more playing time because they could be very handy to have as rotation options. Villa away seemed like a perfect time to get one of them on the pitch for either Bale or Lennon. Or the Coventry and Reading home games.

It's obviously more important to make sure of the result, and there will be times when we are forced into subs due to injuries, but I would personally like to see the occasional sub after 60 mins rather than 75. Suppose we will see at the end of the season.

 

[gregga]

Good stat-hunting gregga, but I think this point is the most critical one. With the injuries and lack of depth we have had up front I think that AVB has had his hands tied more so than Redknapp. And it will be from Feb/Mar onwards were the true fatigue will start to set in and we will want to rotate a bit more.

I am a bit concerned that Townsend and Falque haven't been giving more playing time because they could be very handy to have as rotation options. Villa away seemed like a perfect time to get one of them on the pitch for either Bale or Lennon. Or the Coventry and Reading home games.

It's obviously more important to make sure of the result, and there will be times when we are forced into subs due to injuries, but I would personally like to see the occasional sub after 60 mins rather than 75. Suppose we will see at the end of the season.

It would also be interesting to see how our minutes played stats compare with those of the other top teams. I'd be surprised if many of their key players (attacking ones at least) have quite as many minutes on the clock as Lennon.

We'll see if it catches up with us later in the season but I must admit I'm a little surprised by how much AVB has stuck with the same front 6 where possible - I was expecting Defoe and Ade to rotate a little, and Gilfi and Dempsey too.