The race for a Champions League place

[Derp]

And don't forget about Bony.

 

[BK007]

Using a very, very rough and simple analysis, where I took into account last year's last 14 games results and the form of this year's 24 games results, here is the final table, weighted 63% for this year's and 37% for last year's.

1. Chelsea 87
2. City 79
3. United 69
3. Saints 69
5. Spurs 68
6. Liverpool 67
7. Arsenal 66
8. West Ham 57
9. Stoke 54
10. Swansea 53
11. Everton 47
11. Newcastle 47
13. Palace 44
14. Sunderland 38
15. West Brom 36
16. Burnley 34
16. Aston Villa 34
18. Hull 32
19. QPR 29
20. Leicester 27

*Used Fulham for Burnley, Norwich for QPR and Cardiff for Leicester.

If you used this year's form for the final table, or simply the teams achieved the same last 14 results as last year, the teams which differ more than 5 points are Liverpool and Everton (14 and 11) Palace (7) and Stoke and Newcastle (6). All four except Newcastle had really strong runs last year compared to this year's current form.

No real surprises. 5 teams gunning for places 3 and 4 and QPR and Leicester definitely going down with Hull fighting Burnley and Aston Villa to survive.

 

[michaelden]

Using a very, very rough and simple analysis, where I took into account last year's last 14 games results and the form of this year's 24 games results, here is the final table, weighted 63% for this year's and 37% for last year's.

1. Chelsea 87
2. City 79
3. United 69
3. Saints 69
5. Spurs 68
6. Liverpool 67
7. Arsenal 66
8. West Ham 57
9. Stoke 54
10. Swansea 53
11. Everton 47
11. Newcastle 47
13. Palace 44
14. Sunderland 38
15. West Brom 36
16. Burnley 34
16. Aston Villa 34
18. Hull 32
19. QPR 29
20. Leicester 27

*Used Fulham for Burnley, Norwich for QPR and Cardiff for Leicester.

If you used this year's form for the final table, or simply the teams achieved the same last 14 results as last year, the teams which differ more than 5 points are Liverpool and Everton (14 and 11) Palace (7) and Stoke and Newcastle (6). All four except Newcastle had really strong runs last year compared to this year's current form.

No real surprises. 5 teams gunning for places 3 and 4 and QPR and Leicester definitely going down with Hull fighting Burnley and Aston Villa to survive.

I like it a bit in that Arsenal finish 7th & Liverpool 6th but not happy about missing out on 4th again

 

[BK007]

I like it a bit in that Arsenal finish 7th & Liverpool 6th but not happy about missing out on 4th again

Liverpool should really fall away because last season they won 12/14 and I don't think they can reach that level again. They have no leeway.

The rest is tough because Saints and ourselves lost 5 times and Arsenal and United 4 times.

United & Arsenal went 7-3-4
Spurs 8-1-5
Saints 6-3-5

United have the most difficult last 14 games this season amongst the four teams though.

 

[nicdic]

Liverpool should really fall away because last season they won 12/14 and I don't think they can reach that level again. They have no leeway.

The rest is tough because Saints and ourselves lost 5 times and Arsenal and United 4 times.

United & Arsenal went 7-3-4
Spurs 8-1-5
Saints 6-3-5

United have the most difficult last 14 games this season amongst the four teams though.

Surely a more helpful metric would be the results of the same games (i.e. Liverpool away) from last season, rather than the last however many matches from last year. Could be skewed by things such as playing some teams once and some teams three times.

 

[BK007]

Surely a more helpful metric would be the results of the same games (i.e. Liverpool away) from last season, rather than the last however many matches from last year. Could be skewed by things such as playing some teams once and some teams three times.

As I said, it was rough and simple to do.

Considering that many results don't follow the same scenario year on year, it would take a lot more time and still be another shot in the dark, despite being slightly more accurate. If some mathematicians or statisticians or gamblers wanted to, I bet they could come down with some arbitrary percentage for everything and add it in for any run of games, or even solitary games like Pulis effect for West Brom and etc. and that would be something to see.

Anyway, all I added was the % to get to some kind of points total. You could just as easily look at the 14 results last year (don't even have to look at the teams) and see who plays who for the last 14 games this year and see who has the best chance. Man United play all the top teams save Southampton (who they lost to) for example. Liverpool still have most top teams as well and only 2 results leeway, of course it's not guaranteed they'll lose points, but it's the most likely scenario. If we beat them, for example, they already cannot lose to any other team (and they have Saints and City up next after us).

 

[The Scarecrow]

They are a different team with Yaya Toure in the equation though. If we'd have played them over January I'd have fancied our chances more.

But we have Bentaleb!

 

[whitesocks]

As far as I can work it out, the bookies have lengthened our odds of finishing top 4 after the weekend's results!
They have arsenal and manu in the last 2 slots and I guess part of that is down to the volume of bets they'll take for those 2 teams to do well. So they'll adjust the prices down.

But they really fancy southampton over us, and that jammy win they had against QPR, as games are running out, has strengthened their calculated opinion.

What they will not have predicted is us winning at anfield.
That would really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
It is a game we need to win, if we stand a chance of a CL qualification against the odds.

 

[tototoner]

Liverpool now ahead of us in the betting to finish in the top 4 at 7/2, we have been pushed out slightly to 4/1

Odds on Arsenal and Man Utd ( both 2/5) suggest that is who they expect to finish 3rd and 4th. Southampton are 2/1

On a side note yesterday's TV deal means the Champions League isn't the all important gravy train it used to be, obviously it is a prestigious competition and the best players want to play in it but far more money in the Premier League.

 

[worcestersauce]

The biggest single effect on final placings will be Europa league and I don't think many Liverpool fans realise that yet.

 

[wadewill]

i have seen absolutely nothing in the last few to suggest anything but we are most definitely at least the second best team out of the 5. injuries and luck will play their part, but i would be disappointed if we dont get it now. We are turning into a really good side.

 

[Shadydan]

Liverpool now ahead of us in the betting to finish in the top 4 at 7/2, we have been pushed out slightly to 4/1

Odds on Arsenal and Man Utd ( both 2/5) suggest that is who they expect to finish 3rd and 4th. Southampton are 2/1

On a side note yesterday's TV deal means the Champions League isn't the all important gravy train it used to be, obviously it is a prestigious competition and the best players want to play in it but far more money in the Premier League.

Its still important as no matter how you look at it whoever qualifies still benefits from the extra £30m they receive.

 

[Gbspurs]

No chance we will end up anywhere near 4th with the business end of the Europa coming up. Think how many points we dropped early season after Europa games.

 

[wadewill]

we also could quite easily go out to Fiorentina.

We are also playing alot better than we were early season, seems a better feel and mentality about us

 

[Real_madyidd]

want us to win Europa and qualify, hopefully at someone elses expense.

 

[Blackcanary]

we also could quite easily go out to Fiorentina.

We are also playing alot better than we were early season, seems a better feel and mentality about us

Having initially been a bit unsure about our chances against Fiorentina, I now think we can take them. Might end up about 9-8 on aggregate though!

 

[Mr Pink]

A draw last night would certainly of kept Liverool at bay.

That said if we beat West Ham next Sunday I think we're still in with a good chance. Its ok losing at a tough place like Anfield, even allowing for the fact that they're your competition, but you always have to bounce back from a loss if you've got serious ambitions of finishing well up the League.

Crucial we beat West Ham next week, and if we do that 6 points from those three fixtures is a bloody decent return to be fair and we'll be back on track.

 

[millsey]

want us to win Europa and qualify, hopefully at someone elses expense.

Don't think Europa knocks anyone out of the top 4 if you win it

 

[wadewill]

Don't think Europa knocks anyone out of the top 4 if you win it

I think the only issue would arise if we won the Europa and Arsenal won the CL but finished outside the Top 4. I think its limited to a max of 5 now instead of 4

And we all know what would happen if the above scenario played out

 

[225]

want us to win Europa and qualify, hopefully at someone elses expense.

Don't think Europa knocks anyone out of the top 4 if you win it

It'll be at the expense of the runner up of the final! Assuming they've not qualified through their league