2023/24 - The Race For..................

[dirtyh]

Chelsea match ???

good spot. 0-9 obv.

 

[WorthATry]

so that's 17pts from 11 games? That's pretty average tbh, especially in a run-in where you should be at full tilt.

fulham (a) - 3
luton (h) - 3
wham (a) - 3
forest (h) - 3
newcastle (a) - 3
city (h) - 1
scum (h) - 3
liverpool (a) - 1
burnley (h) - 3
sheff utd (a) - 3

26 for me. even with a few misses here and there it still should be 21+. Reckon we'll be a lot closer than 13pts to 3rd too.

Those results look wildly optimistic

 

[ItsBoris]

This is from "Opta Analyst". I'm always a bit skeptical of these machine learning simulations so take it with a grain of salt. But if England's chances of 5 CL spots are about 70%, which it was last I checked, then at the moment we should have an 80% chance of qualifying for CL.

 

[Westmorlandspur]

Those results look wildly optimistic

Missed Chelsea away

 

[fishhhandaricecake]

so that's 17pts from 11 games? That's pretty average tbh, especially in a run-in where you should be at full tilt.

fulham (a) - 3
luton (h) - 3
wham (a) - 3
forest (h) - 3
newcastle (a) - 3
city (h) - 1
scum (h) - 3
liverpool (a) - 1
burnley (h) - 3
sheff utd (a) - 3

26 for me. even with a few misses here and there it still should be 21+. Reckon we'll be a lot closer than 13pts to 3rd too.

Sorry love your optimism but absolutely no chance that we get as many as 26 pts from 10 games that is wildly optimistic. There is also Chelsea away to factor in and we all know we will lose that due to the curse they have on us.

Id be happy with 6wins, 3draws 2 losses from the final 11 games (21pts) which I think would be enough to get us 4th but It'll be tight.

 

[SpursSince1980]

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View attachment 138583

This is from "Opta Analyst". I'm always a bit skeptical of these machine learning simulations so take it with a grain of salt. But if England's chances of 5 CL spots are about 70%, which it was last I checked, then at the moment we should have an 80% chance of qualifying for CL.

I wonder what is the earliest date we'll know if 5th is enough to qualify for the CL?

 

[SirHarryHotspur]

We almost have the full squad available depending on Mickey's situation and going by our points achieved so far just maintaining our form should give us a minimum of 21/22 over the next 11 matches. 74/5 points will easily get a top 4 place.

 

[fishhhandaricecake]

View attachment 138582

View attachment 138583

This is from "Opta Analyst". I'm always a bit skeptical of these machine learning simulations so take it with a grain of salt. But if England's chances of 5 CL spots are about 70%, which it was last I checked, then at the moment we should have an 80% chance of qualifying for CL.

Interesting although the beauty of football and sport is that data modelling machines usually get it wrong because sport is unpredictable.

Lets as Maddison says take it game by game.

4th and not a huge gap to 3rd and a strong end of season would be fantastic to build on.

 

[Mr Pink]

Those results look wildly optimistic

Would hardly say 'widly".

A bit maybe, but if we show the form of earlier in the season, and second half yesterday showed real signs, Id expect us to hit a minimum of 20 points.

Think 23 or so is doable.

 

[ItsBoris]

To indulge the title talk a bit: recent history says you need 85-95 points to win the title most years. For argument's sake let's say it's 85 this year with a stronger league than normal. That means we'd need 32 more points in 11 games. But you can't get that many points in 11 games, you could only get 33 points by winning all 11. So if we win every game until the end of the season we could win the league. Drop points anywhere and probably not.

I could see us winning against City and Arsenal at home, but I don't think I can see us winning away at Anfield.

 

[Mr Pink]

Liverpool away is the hardest of the lot imo.

As the crowd are simly the most up for it which translates to both sets of players.

 

[ItsBoris]

Interesting although the beauty of football and sport is that data modelling machines usually get it wrong because sport is unpredictable.

Lets as Maddison says take it game by game.

4th and not a huge gap to 3rd and a strong end of season would be fantastic to build on.

First sentence is def true.

The players should take it game by game but we can surely indulge our imaginations a bit. If we take it game by game there's not much to talk about here is there lol?

 

[ItsBoris]

I wonder what is the earliest date we'll know if 5th is enough to qualify for the CL?

Will be a lot more clear at the end of next week. If Villa, Arsenal, and West Ham all get through to the next round the chances would be really high.

 

[Marauder]

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This is from "Opta Analyst". I'm always a bit skeptical of these machine learning simulations so take it with a grain of salt. But if England's chances of 5 CL spots are about 70%, which it was last I checked, then at the moment we should have an 80% chance of qualifying for CL.

LOL Sir Jim Ratface must be pissing himself over these.

 

[ItsBoris]

LOL Sir Jim Ratface must be pissing himself over these.

lol Man Utd's probability looks like the stock chart of Lehman Brothers in 2008

 

[Hazelton]

Aim for first and see where we land, Ange is spot on. Finally a manager who fits the To Dare is To Do motto.

 

[LeSoupeKitchen]

I wasn't sure where to put this so I'll just say that we need more help from the referees (or to go down in the box more easily) to secure top 4:

We're an outlier to the expected trend. I'm sure there are other factors that contribute.

 

[WiganSpur]

View attachment 138582

View attachment 138583

This is from "Opta Analyst". I'm always a bit skeptical of these machine learning simulations so take it with a grain of salt. But if England's chances of 5 CL spots are about 70%, which it was last I checked, then at the moment we should have an 80% chance of qualifying for CL.

You need to treat these events as separate (England getting 5 spots AND us getting top 5). It's also probably fair to assume that the 5 spots being determined at the end of the season won't affect our performance in trying to get in the top 5. So also assuming that these probabilities are correct, the chances of us finishing in the top 5 and England having 5 spots is the product of the probabilities if i'm not mistaken which is around 64%. Still a pretty good chance though.

EDIT - also need to factor in the other route to the CL which would be England getting 4 spots and Spurs finishing top 4, which is roughly a 16% chance and so adds up to 80%.

 

[ItsBoris]

You need to treat these events as separate (England getting 5 spots AND us getting top 5). It's also probably fair to assume that the 5 spots being determined at the end of the season won't affect our performance in trying to get in the top 5. So also assuming that these probabilities are correct, the chances of us finishing in the CL is the product of the probabilities if i'm not mistaken which is around 64%. Still a pretty good chance though.

That would be the probability of us finishing 5th or higher AND england getting 5 spots. You have to add the probability that England doesn't get 5 spots and we come 4th, which is about 16%, which is how I get 80% probability total

 

[Misfit]

If we get 18 pts we've given ourselves a real chance of top 4 and will deffo be top 5 I think.