Comparision Against Last Year

[225]

20 points between 8th and 9th...

Yeah.. Just updated the link from the one you quoted (uploaded buggy version), but it's just a case of putting in H, D, A (for home win, draw or away).

I didn't plan it that way, just the fixtures turn out as such. It's not so much our form that's the issue (as 68 pts would be pretty decent form), it's the teams that those around us will be picking up points from

 

[Dan Yeats]

Scary to think where we'd be at had Kane not emerged. Mid table I'd guess.

I'm not having a go at you, but I hate it when opposition fans use this kind of thinking. Under Bale we were a "one-man team" and wouldn't have been half as good without him. Yeah, okay, but you see that shirt he's wearing? He's a Spurs player.

Similarly when people make comments along the lines of "x team deserved to win that, but y team's goalie was outstanding" - the goalkeeper is part of the team FFS.

 

[225]

For Arsenal, I seem to have predicted 10 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from their final 13. Obviously it's not that simple and I'm rubbish at predicting draws, but I had them down as:

10 Win: Palace, Everton, QPR, West Ham, Newcastle, Burnley, Sunderland, Hull, Swansea, West Brom
1 Draw: Man Utd
2 Loss: Liverpool, Chelsea

 

[Dan Yeats]

By now, someone clever can work out about how many points will be needed for 4th place - anyone got any ideas on the likely figure?

Have a look at Michael Caley's projections on Cartilage Free Captain

http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/2/6/7991745/premier-league-projections-week-24

CFC have a good podcast too if you're interested.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

After 25 rounds:
Read the numbers as follows (somewhat counter intuitive): 2014 – 2015 (2013 / 2012)
League position: 5 – 6 (4 / 3)

Points: 47 – 43 (45 / 53)

Win %: 56% – 52% (52% / 64%)

Loss %: 24% – 32% (24% / 16%)

GF: 32 – 39 (42 / 49)

GA: 32 – 34 (29 / 25)

We score a wee bit more, and otherwise perform a bit worse than last season. Obviously, these are overall stats, not taking into account how good we have been doing lately.

 

[225]

After 25 rounds:
Read the numbers as follows (somewhat counter intuitive): 2014 – 2015 (2013 / 2012)
League position: 5 – 6 (4 / 3)

Points: 47 – 43 (45 / 53)

Win %: 56% – 52% (52% / 64%)

Loss %: 24% – 32% (24% / 16%)

GF: 32 – 39 (42 / 49)

GA: 32 – 34 (29 / 25)

We score a wee bit more, and otherwise perform a bit worst than last season. Obviously, these are overall stats, not taking into account how good we have been doing lately.

So, essentially, we're having our worst but best season for 4 years. But not. Except we kind of are.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

So, essentially, we're having our worst but best season for 4 years. But not. Except we kind of are.

We've had one terrible part and one great part, averaging out underwhelmingly.

 

[plashy]

Why have you swapped those teams over? Surly it should be:

1st - Leicester = 18th - Norwich
2nd - Burnley = 19th - Fulham
P/O - QPR = 20th - Cardiff

If you work it out like that then we are actually 5 points better off compared to the corresponding fixtures last season.

To be honest, I just didn't put that level of thought into it! I do like your model more, particularly since it leaves us better off!

 

[ERO]

For Arsenal, I seem to have predicted 10 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from their final 13. Obviously it's not that simple and I'm rubbish at predicting draws, but I had them down as:

10 Win: Palace, Everton, QPR, West Ham, Newcastle, Burnley, Sunderland, Hull, Swansea, West Brom
1 Draw: Man Utd
2 Loss: Liverpool, Chelsea

Even if you were to be the greatest betting man in history and predict the correct result in 80 % of fixtures you'd only be 5 % likely to get those all right. The chances of an Arsenal win will be substantially lower than 80 % in nearly all those matches, and 80 % certainty in those three other matches are pure fantasy - meaning you wouldn't even come anywhere close to a 5 % likelihood of being correct. Not a dig at you, just trying to illustrate how nigh on impossible it is to predict an accurate outcome of that many matches.

 

[Strikeb4ck]

Totally disagree with you. I think we will be incredibly strong next season. But there we go...

Why, just out of curiosity?

I'm not having a go at you, but I hate it when opposition fans use this kind of thinking. Under Bale we were a "one-man team" and wouldn't have been half as good without him. Yeah, okay, but you see that shirt he's wearing? He's a Spurs player.

Similarly when people make comments along the lines of "x team deserved to win that, but y team's goalie was outstanding" - the goalkeeper is part of the team FFS.

I know that. But players like Aguero, Sanchez, etc are there all season. No one expected Kane to lead the line for us this season. And we simply wouldn't be close to where we are without him.

 

[DanielCHillier]

The somewhat scary thing is looking at the remaining fixtures, and our results in them last year.

West Ham (H) – (L)
Swansea (H) – (W)
QPR (A) – (L)
Man U (A) – (W)
Leicester (H) – (W)
Burnley (A) – (W)
Aston Villa (H) – (W)
Newcastle (A) – (W)
Southampton (A) – (W)
Man City (H) – (L)
Stoke City (A) – (W)
Hull City (H) – (W)
Everton (A) – (D)

A few of those of course are improvable, but six wins on the trot in there will be very difficult to achieve.

As long as we win/draw v West Ham and we should be QPR then we're at least 4 points better off which could offset the possible results v Man U and Southampton

 

[DanielCHillier]

Have a look at Michael Caley's projections on Cartilage Free Captain

http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/2/6/7991745/premier-league-projections-week-24

CFC have a good podcast too if you're interested.

That article was written pre-NLD and has us finishing on only 60 points, I don't think i'm being overly optimistic when I say I think we'll definitely finish with more than that

 

[Dan Yeats]

No one expected Kane to lead the line for us this season.

Some of us did... *smug*

 

[Strikeb4ck]

Some of us did... *smug*

I was very impressed by Kane in every cameo last season but not even someone like Windy, who is a huge admirer, proclaimed that he would be leading the line by the end of the season until about 1/3 of the way through this one.

 

[Gaz_Gammon]

I looked at the amount of time Benteke has been out and what he has done since his return, and pray every night that Harry remains injury free this season.

 

[eddiev14]

Why, just out of curiosity?

Sure. What I posted in another thread is below. That post pretty much covers all my feelings on the club, Poch and our future after reviewing the last few months.

I found it interesting that Paul Scholes has subsequently said almost exactly the same thing in his Independent column this week and it is clear that a lot of other fans on here are feeling (or starting to feel) the same way too.

I wanted LVG or FDB but I am delighted with Pochettino and the work he has done. I think we will finish the season strongly and go from strength to strength.

It is the first time in a long while that I have seen a Spurs manager implement a philosophy that actually stands a chance of helping us to compete without having to blow a tonne of money.

The fact that a couple of academy players with little EPL experience can, if they show the right amount of application and intelligence in training, slip into the system and dominate the strongest midfield in the league shows that his hard work with our (pretty difficult) squad is starting to pay off on the pitch.

You also often hear other fans claiming that our individual players (particularly the youngsters like Bentaleb, Dier, Mason and even Kane) aren't that good. Undoubtedly they are underestimating them because they are new and unfamiliar but we'd all admit that none of them are World beaters at their peak - just promising youngsters eager to make their mark.

This is what is so exciting though. For Pochettino it is all about the TEAM.

You hear him in almost every post match press conference refusing to praise individuals, instead maintaining "it is about all the players. The team performance is the most important".

The fact that we are already starting to see this mentality after such a short period of time, and at a club which has a history of marvelling at and celebrating individual brilliance, is quite staggering. It is not an easy mentality to change, at all.

What is equally amazing is the fact that even the fans - possibly the hardest to get on board - now appear to be up for the idea of academy players and signings of the 'non-marquee' variety (who are bought for their proficiency at playing a very specific role in the team and not because they can do lots of keepy ups or kick a ball in a skip from a rooftop!) as the future for our team.

Made even more amazing if you look back at some of the comments from October when Poch's vision hadn't yet started to work and our results were very up and down.

If we can trim the squad of all the hangers on and give him the players he needs in the summer transfer market (as well as promoting more youngsters with the same levels of quality, application and willingness to learn as this season's intake) then IMO we will have a very exciting few years ahead.

In short, he has been an amazing appointment. We have a solid identity and a clear direction now, both things that have been lost for a long time.

Two thumbs up. COYS!!!!

 

[Dan Yeats]

That article was written pre-NLD and has us finishing on only 60 points, I don't think i'm being overly optimistic when I say I think we'll definitely finish with more than that

Keep an eye out - he regularly updates them throughout the season.

 

[JollyHappy]

Have a look at Michael Caley's projections on Cartilage Free Captain

http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/2/6/7991745/premier-league-projections-week-24

CFC have a good podcast too if you're interested.[/QUOTE

Interesting - so predicting around 67 points for 4th place which is less than the last couple of years. I'd say subject to the pressures of the Europa Lea

That article was written pre-NLD and has us finishing on only 60 points, I don't think i'm being overly optimistic when I say I think we'll definitely finish with more than that

So if we think 67/68 is the target, we have 43 from 25 games. 13 games to go we should expect about 25 points assuming we don't lose games we should be winning.

So wins at home against W Ham, Swansea, Leicester, Villa, Hull. Wins away at QPR, Burnley.

So we'd need 4 draws or better from City at home and three of away at Man U, Newcastle, Everton, Southampton, Stoke and Everton

I'd say that if 67/68 does get 4th place then we should be getting excited!!

 

[Gaz_Gammon]

So if we think 67/68 is the target, we have 43 from 25 games. 13 games to go we should expect about 25 points assuming we don't lose games we should be winning.

So wins at home against W Ham, Swansea, Leicester, Villa, Hull. Wins away at QPR, Burnley.

So we'd need 4 draws or better from City at home and three of away at Man U, Newcastle, Everton, Southampton, Stoke and Everton

I'd say that if 67/68 does get 4th place then we should be getting excited!!

If that is more or less what it would take then i think we could well do it!

 

[Blake Griffin]

What we need to know is how many points Arsenal are better/worse off. We can assume that Southampton and Man Utd are better off and Liverpool worse off.