The thing with Dragon is she only seems to come out after the event and agree, maybe I'm wrong...
that's not how I remember it Mat - but maybe i'm the one that's wrong - for me she's reliable and while often she is telling us things we kinda know - when she says it I believe it a lot more
so for example when she said Berbs is going about a month ago - that made me more inclined to believe he is leaving - of course things can change etc etc