Let's All Laugh At... Let's all laugh at Chelsea thread

[spurs9]

Players Chelsea could sell, and see a decent profit:

Kepa
Broja
Gallagher
Maatsen
Hall
Colwill
James

A few others could bring in less relief - but Chelsea might also just have a strategy of damage limitation - i.e. get the penalty down to a manageable point deduction and just move on.

I also would expect them to get creative in these deals - allowing clubs to backload the cost well into the future - paying a small fee up front, and most in 4-5 years. From an accounting perspective, the entire sale would count now, but clubs won't have to put up the cash until later.

For Kepa, they only get profit over on sales over 14m don't they? I don't think anyone will pay that for an average at best GK with 1 year left on his contract.

 

[spurs9]

Kepa is an interesting case.

First he arrived in 2018, so his book value is probably going to be close to zero by the end of this season.

Second, he technically signed on a free - because Kepa had to pay his own release clause. So, from a book value perspective - he is very likely at 0.

Thus, any sale price should be recorded as pure profits.

That's not how it works, because Chelsea had to pay Kepa the money for the release clause.

 

[rossdapep]

The Premier League teams are meeting to discuss changes to the profit and sustainability rules.

Have a horrible feeling they will make changes and it will save Chelsea from proper punishment.

Typical.

They knew the rules and the risks.

This is not something that started yesterday.

For example, Arsenal have been on the line but have continued to spend 200m every summer without CL football and last year spent 100m.

So they have noone to blame.

All getting shifty cause Everton actually got docked points.

I reckon none of them actually thought it the threat would be followed through with.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

That's not how it works, because Chelsea had to pay Kepa the money for the release clause.

Right - but we are talking about accounting and technicalities - not the actual cash flow.

When looking at the book value of Kepa, the payment to him is different than the payment to a team to acquire his contract rights.

And given that this all took place in 2018, it’s probably moot, as the book value would be at 0 at the end of this year in any event.

 

[he is you know!]

Nunez was 75m Euros (65m pounds), which is quite a way short of 90m. Liverpool are also fine from a HG perspective, so don't need to overpay.

It's £65m guaranteed but £85m total including add ons which appears on the balance sheet. Appearance add ons have already pushed the guaranteed amount to over £70m.

 

[spurs9]

It's £65m guaranteed but £85m total including add ons which appears on the balance sheet. Appearance add ons have already pushed the guaranteed amount to over £70m.

Yes but the context is Chelsea needing the money before 30th June, so "add ons" don't help them.

 

[spurs9]

Right - but we are talking about accounting and technicalities - not the actual cash flow.

When looking at the book value of Kepa, the payment to him is different than the payment to a team to acquire his contract rights.

And given that this all took place in 2018, it’s probably moot, as the book value would be at 0 at the end of this year in any event.

They are still paying to acquire his contract, regardless if they are paying the player to pay the club or the club directly.

He signed a 7 year contract, so should have 1/7th of the fee on the books unless the new "can only amortised over max 5 years regardless on contract being longer" rule happened retrospectively.

 

[RJR1949]

The Premier League teams are meeting to discuss changes to the profit and sustainability rules.

Have a horrible feeling they will make changes and it will save Chelsea from proper punishment.

Not sure.

The only club with owners who might want to pump in large sums for prestige reasons is Newcastle. The other clubs all want to get to a position where Premier League clubs can make not lose money.

And the top clubs are in any case constrained by UEFA rules and will want to see similar constraints on clubs not in Europe.

 

[KirstyG]

As much as I love the prospect of a Chelsea FFP-meltdown, I fear their Saudi sponsors will organise another bailout.
Last year they flogged several surplus players like Koulibali, Mendy and Kanté for vastly inflated transfer fees. What's to stop them selling 10 random substandard youth players at 10m apiece to the Saudi pro league?

I think that will happen too but I’m enjoying them sweat right now.

I don’t want my Chelsea-supporting husband to be sad but he made his bed at the the age of 6 -now he has to suck it up

 

[wakefieldyid]

Not sure.

The only club with owners who might want to pump in large sums for prestige reasons is Newcastle. The other clubs all want to get to a position where Premier League clubs can make not lose money.

And the top clubs are in any case constrained by UEFA rules and will want to see similar constraints on clubs not in Europe.

The other big issue is the likelihood that the government will force through the appointment of a football regulator if the PL aren't seen to enforce ther own rules fairly.

 

[djhotspur]

It depends how desperate they are to avoid the FFP penalty. If they were willing to sell Reece James to someone like PSG for a discounted but decent fee then all of a sudden they've only got to sell a couple more players to be ok.

If it was any other club I'd say they were screwed, but they seem to land on their feet every time. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go the Barca route of selling future TV rights either.

No one is paying big money for James. His injury history is truly horrendous

 

[newbie]

No one is paying big money for James. His injury history is truly horrendous

I bet his wages aren’t cheap

 

[thebenjamin]

The Premier League teams are meeting to discuss changes to the profit and sustainability rules.

Have a horrible feeling they will make changes and it will save Chelsea from proper punishment.

Presumably they have to at least be aligned with UEFA's FFP rules otherwise you might pass in the PL but get banned from Europe.

 

[EighteenEightyTwo]

That's not how it works, because Chelsea had to pay Kepa the money for the release clause.

I agree, that doesn’t sound right that it wouldn’t appear on the books. It would be a very clear FFP workaround and release clauses would be triggered left, right and centre.

 

[tommyt]

"Chelsea players have complained that coaching by Mauricio Pochettino and his staff on tactical elements is limited, while new arrivals have expressed regret over their long-term contracts. (Athletic - subscription required)"

https://archive.is/2024.02.06-091721/https://theathletic.com/5252016/2024/02/06/chelsea-pochettino-eghbali-boehly-thiago/

 

[razor1981]

The Premier League teams are meeting to discuss changes to the profit and sustainability rules.

Have a horrible feeling they will make changes and it will save Chelsea from proper punishment.

They're expected to change the PL rules to more closely align with UEFA's new 'squad cost ratio' measure of FFP. But any change would only apply from the 2024/25 season onwards. This isn't a 'get out of jail free' card for anybody.

'Squad cost ratio' will mean that clubs can only spend a certain percentage of their overall revenue on wages, transfers, agent fees etc. Clubs that are in trouble under the current rules will still be in trouble under the new ones.

 

[C-oops]

Jumping in on this because it's clear that A) some people still don't get that it's £100m PROFIT not player sales that they need to generate within 2 weeks of the next transfer window opening and B) because some people are forgetting that most other clubs are also struggling to meet FFP regulations and so certainly won't be doing deals that also hit their books this financial year.

No-one was spending in Jan and the same will be true until next FY, at which point any sales that Chelsea make will be too late.

Now let's look at the possible worth of some of their players:

1. Gallagher - 100% of whatever his sale price is, but with 1 year on his contract I can't see anyone paying more than £40m for him unless between now and June he turns into one of the best midfielders in the league.

2. Fernandez - currently only revenue above €98m for him will count as profit. There's no-one paying anything close to that for him, so at the moment they're effectively in negative equity with him.

3. Palmer - revenue above €40m will count as profit. Best case they can get is around €70m IMO and there's only two teams that would be able to pay that before end of June - us and Liverpool. Best case scenario they could make £25m here IMO.

4. Lukaku - currently only revenue above €45m for him will count as profit. I don't think he's worth more than that and no-one in the prem, where the most money is, is going to pay that for him. Probably break even at best or more likely in negative equity.

5. Colwill - probably their best best of raising funds given that his contract is until 2029 with a year option on it. Probably worth around £50m this summer.

6. Broja - another one who they make profit on, probably be able to get around £30m from someone.

Let's say that they can get another £10-15m from other player sales that aren't main players for them. That leaves them with around £80m of profit to make from the above list.

Personally I think it means that they will HAVE to sell Broja and one of either Colwill or Gallagher.

Who is paying 50m for colwill?

 

[Guernman]

they can't ask for market prices for players before June 30th, let alone their own inflated valuations - potential buyers will just say call us back in July when our own FFP headroom is better

 

[Gb160]

Thing is their squad has huge holes already and the wages are too high. Selling all their HG won't help them one bit in the medium to long term. I think they gambled everything on making CL and they are well well short. Silva is 40 ffs.

They could sell Silva to B&Q...they only seem to employ the elderly.

 

[Roberts84]

This is beautiful.

Bloody hell that blokes voice is fucking annoying