New Betting Loophole – Quick & Easy Money With Profit Squad

[mark87]

I'd stop and double check everything as it sounds like you're doing something wrong. There's absolutely no way you should be breaking even. The QL is normally a couple of quid and the NCOs and Free Bets are normally in the 20-50 range.

Post some examples and we'll try and see where you're going wrong

I've followed the NCO instructions exactly stated on the site just like I have with the other NCOs. plus the QL will be bigger the bigger the bet and if at one point I had 900 in my bookie account the QL amounts will add up as I win with betfair and reduce that 900.

I'll go over everything again though.

 

[Time for Heroes]

I see what Mark is saying here.

Because it was so one sided with Mark winning with the bookie every time as opposed to the exchange, the qualifying loss was getting bigger and bigger on each bet. To the point now where it has actually wiped out the profit.

 

[mark87]

Exactly.

 

[Rob]

I see what Mark is saying here.

Because it was so one sided with Mark winning with the bookie every time as opposed to the exchange, the qualifying loss was getting bigger and bigger on each bet. To the point now where it has actually wiped out the profit.

That shouldn't be possible. Most of the NCOs which require wagering give a profit figure of (making up some numbers) £13-£30 from a £50 bonus. The £13 would be if you had to do all say £800 of wagering (which had qualifying losses of £37). If you lost the bets and so had to do less wagering, your QLs might only have been £20 (and so you end up with the £30 profit).

Either way, unless you're taking truly awful matches you can't end up breaking even as your total QLs, even if doing the maximum wagering, should be lower than the bonus you got.

 

[Time for Heroes]

That shouldn't be possible. Most of the NCOs which require wagering give a profit figure of (making up some numbers) £13-£30 from a £50 bonus. The £13 would be if you had to do all say £800 of wagering (which had qualifying losses of £37). If you lost the bets and so had to do less wagering, your QLs might only have been £20 (and so you end up with the £30 profit).

Either way, unless you're taking truly awful matches you can't end up breaking even as your total QLs, even if doing the maximum wagering, should be lower than the bonus you got.

I don't want to make it look as if I have switched opinions, but I do agree with everything Rob has said!

Mark, particularly on some of the larger bets at the end, were some of the matches quite poor in an attempt to maybe finish the wagering quicker?

 

[mark87]

The usual ones I'd do is say 3.5 back and a 3.6 lay, I'd hunt for ages for a closer match but there just wouldn't be any.

As I said I'll look over everything again to see if I've made a mistake somewhere.

 

[Dinghy]

There are a few offers where you need to lose the bonus quickly to make the most out of the offer...

For example the NetBet offer (£50 bonus for £100 deposit) requires £1000 of wagering if you don't lose it all to the exchange... I ended up about £5 down from that one...

 

[mark87]

There are a few offers where you need to lose the bonus quickly to make the most out of the offer...

For example the NetBet offer (£50 bonus for £100 deposit) requires £1000 of wagering if you don't lose it all to the exchange... I ended up about £5 down from that one...

With the winner sports one it's £1600 of wagering.

 

[Dinghy]

With the winner sports one it's £1600 of wagering.

I think when I get around to another of these big wagering NCO's I might take a look at dutching with another NCO at the same time... For example with the NBA you only have 2 outcomes so can ensure that you lose less than about £3 for 2 £100 bets. This would mean that for £1000 worth of wagering on both sides (total £2000 of wagering) you would only lose £30...

Although I may have to think it through again to make sure that the maths adds up!

When I did the NetBet offer I had 10 £100 bets with a ql on average of just over £5 for every £100 bet... For an offer that gives £50 free that ended up -ev...

 

[haxman]

For those higher wagering NCOs I just chose horse racing where possible and looked for a close match, and managed to lose the bets first time into the exchange for a very small loss of the free bet. You want to lose as quickly as possible and having more ways to lose is a good thing here.

 

[Rob]

The usual ones I'd do is say 3.5 back and a 3.6 lay, I'd hunt for ages for a closer match but there just wouldn't be any.

As I said I'll look over everything again to see if I've made a mistake somewhere.

Two examples here. Obviously you don't do all that wagering in one go and you're actually break it down into 20-odd bets but the maths is the same.

From the first example, using an average match of 1.8 vs 1.81 the wagering to completion would cost£44.

For this example, using the kind of average matches you've been doing, and you see that it costs you far more to complete wagering.

Even on the bad matches above, using Smarkets with a 2% comission, rather than Betfair's 4.9 would give:

From this my bottom line advice would be:

Only pick good matches! It makes a huge difference when wagering as the numbers are so big.

There's a trade off between low odds that'll like win (which you don't want) and high-odds losing quickly but giving you worse matches. Ideally you'd get a very close match with high odds but that might not always be possible. Remember "close" is relative to the absolute odds so you can afford to increase the gap a bit the higher the odds but I kept the majority of my NCO bets under 2.0 and tried to get the lay as close as possible. I'd suggest preparing for the worst-case scenario of winning all your bets and having to complete wagering.

The exchange comission can be a significant part of the costs (almost a 3rd in my example) so use Smarkets where possible over Betfair (there's slightly more risk that Smarkets will go down and crash as it's not as stable as betfair and there's less liquidity in some of the markets but for football bets it should be fine).

 

[mark87]

Two examples here. Obviously you don't do all that wagering in one go and you're actually break it down into 20-odd bets but the maths is the same.

From the first example, using an average match of 1.8 vs 1.81 the wagering to completion would cost£44.

View attachment 27046

For this example, using the kind of average matches you've been doing, and you see that it costs you far more to complete wagering.

View attachment 27047

Even on the bad matches above, using Smarkets with a 2% comission, rather than Betfair's 4.9 would give:
View attachment 27048

From this my bottom line advice would be:

Only pick good matches! It makes a huge difference when wagering as the numbers are so big.

There's a trade off between low odds that'll like win (which you don't want) and high-odds losing quickly but giving you worse matches. Ideally you'd get a very close match with high odds but that might not always be possible. Remember "close" is relative to the absolute odds so you can afford to increase the gap a bit the higher the odds but I kept the majority of my NCO bets under 2.0 and tried to get the lay as close as possible. I'd suggest preparing for the worst-case scenario of winning all your bets and having to complete wagering.

The exchange comission can be a significant part of the costs (almost a 3rd in my example) so use Smarkets where possible over Betfair (there's slightly more risk that Smarkets will go down and crash as it's not as stable as betfair and there's less liquidity in some of the markets but for football bets it should be fine).

Completely get what you're saying, but the bonus on this particular NCO ran out after two weeks and trust me I did look hard for closer matches but they were the closest I could find, plus I don't really wanna keep doing South American football matches as it looks dodgy, I want some muggy bets in there too.

Cheers for your help Rob, appreciate you taking the time to do the above post.

 

[mark87]

Did my first dutching on the 12:55 @ Newbury...made £13 profit. It was only 5 runners which is why I wanted to do it, didn't want my first one to be I shit load of horses as I'll panic and get confused.

 

[mark87]

Had a bit of a result in the dutching I did. I got a £25 free bet with paddy power as the horse I bet with them came 2nd to the favourite. lovely stuff.

 

[mark87]

Just found out my betfair commission has been reduced from 5% to 2%. Has anyone else got this?

 

[haxman]

Just found out my betfair commission has been reduced from 5% to 2%. Has anyone else got this?

For today, or for good? That's sweet if it's for good.

 

[mark87]

For today, or for good? That's sweet if it's for good.

Well it can change depending on how much I bet with them, it depends on how many exchange points you have which you can check on your account page and it will show what your commission is currently set at.

 

[haxman]

Well it can change depending on how much I bet with them, it depends on how many exchange points you have which you can check on your account page and it will show what your commission is currently set at.

It says 1,211 exchange points = 2% commission discount. So, same as you then by the looks of that.

 

[mark87]

It says 1,211 exchange points = 2% commission discount. So, same as you then by the looks of that.

Yeah I'm currently on 1201, I doubled checked this too with betfair chat and they confirmed I'm currently at 2% commission.

 

[DEFchenkOE]

I tried to do some of the horse racing bets today and completely flunked my lines but it was my error, I bet on a horse at 3:10, the horse won on b365 which means i get a risk free bet on the next live race. But I was waiting to see if the money would appear as a bonus, asked b365 chat and they confirmed I just needed to use my own funds and if it lost i would get it back as a refund. But then time ran out and the next race started, as I was still in the chat they kindly said I could bet on the next race risk free as a good will gesture. But then on the next race somehow I bet £5 instead of £25 . I cashed out before the race started and then bet the actual £25 but it's unlikely to count towards the free bet as they only accept your first bet for each race. But I had already laid on betfair based on the £25 bet at the bookie so had to go through on B365.

Shouldn't have tried doing it while also cooking kids dinner and them screaming in my ear, I'm a useless multi-tasker