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Rob

Rob

The Boss
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Jun 8, 2003
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Leicester City Youth ‏@FoxesYouth 5m5 minutes ago
Good luck to Head of Technical Scouting Rob Mackenzie, who has moved on to take up a similar role with @SpursOfficial. #LCFC #THFC
 
MatJspur

MatJspur

Well-Known Member
Sep 3, 2013
124
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http://www.optasportspro.com/about/...-of-technical-scouting-at-leicester-city.aspx

On a very basic level scouting in football is about being able to accurately assess a player’s ability and/or potential. Traditionally, scouting has been reliant on individual scouts’ abilities to make judgements on players having seen them play in live matches for their respective club/nation. As such, the opinion and decision-making of the scout is imperative and the trust that a manager has in his Chief Scout or Head of Recruitment’s opinion on a player is still the main precursor to any genuine interest in a player that may result in a club signing said player. For me, this will not change anytime soon, nor should it. What is evolving, however, in my experience is that the opinion and decision making of the Chief Scout/Head of Recruitment is now being more accurately informed than ever before.

A football club is a tight-knit community where relationships are formed due to the sheer amount of contact time you have with your colleagues and in most cases it is the personality of the person in a certain role which determines how successful they can be in implementing change or coming up with new ideas. In my experience, sometimes the rationale behind the process isn’t enough on its own. I am fortunate in that the manager I work for is very open-minded and forward-thinking. But in my experience of working with him, the person behind the role is still equally important. If he has faith in you as a person, and you show an interest to adopt something new, he will give you the opportunity to justify the process. If it means something to you and you believe in it for the right reasons, the chances are it will happen. Successful people at football clubs rely on being able to trust each other’s judgement and their ability to do their job. I think this is why people at clubs can be cautious or sceptical towards “outsiders” as that trust is not there and they have no previous experience to draw on regarding someone’s judgement. Therefore, in my experience if you are an “outsider” and are proposing a new way of working, then the challenge is always going to be a significant one.

From a personal point of view, I believe the drive for analytics in football has often come from these avenues as opposed to from within the clubs themselves and as such have failed to penetrate the workings of many clubs. The reality is that this culture (trust, credibility etc.) isn’t going to change. The challenge for advocates of analytics wanting to get into the professional game then will be to gain credibility from practitioners working in the game and possess an ability to speak in their language. Similarly, gaining an understanding of what is relevant or applicable to a coach or a manager cannot be underestimated. It only takes one inference or suggestion based on statistical evidence that is deemed unrealistic or totally alien to the thoughts of the management team to seriously affect someone’s credibility in the eyes of many within the game.

Having said that, I am aware of excellent analytics-related work going on at a number of clubs, much which will potentially surpass the work we are currently doing at LCFC in the Recruitment Department, but we are constantly evolving and given the insight above I am fortunate in the sense that I believe I have achieved credibility in the eyes of the people that I work with, so bringing an analytical perspective to the work we do in the recruitment department has been possible. Although nothing will replace the need to see a player live before being convinced that he may be the right fit for your club, there is a significant analytical element to our profiling. In order to develop my own understanding & ability to assess players (whilst also gaining credibility from traditional scouts) though, I regularly get out to two or three matches a week to assess both upcoming opposition and individual players. I firmly believe it is only with this kind of experience and approach that real differences can be made. If you’re not prepared to go out and scout players yourself in the flesh then how can you be taken seriously in a scouting department? Similarly, if you don’t experience being in the position of having to make a decision based on a player’s performance, then how can you relate to the guys that do?

“The very essence of instinct is that it’s followed independently of reason”

(Charles Darwin)

I recently watched a TV panel show about scouting in professional football and the main take-home message for me was the reliance and emphasis placed on a scout’s gut instinct towards a players performance. Stories were exchanged where clubs had signed players on just a few performances and that the clubs’ scouts “just knew” that the players were right for their club and needed to be signed. I am not naïve enough to think that this hasn’t happened before but my thoughts on this are somewhat different. I agree that the gut instinct and immediate reaction of the scout in question, based on his years of experience of assessing players and his in-depth understanding of what is required for your team (both technically/tactically & psychologically etc.), is vital to considering any player and I don’t think that the scout’s assessment (if they are good!) should be questioned. What should be questioned however is; was that performance a normal level of performance for that player? Was the performance that your trusted scout liked so much representative of that player’s ability?

For me, this is where a statistical approach is pivotal. In many cases, clubs are able to gain statistics from the game in question (which can use as an initial benchmark/guide) whilst also being able to compare that data to how they have performed previously. Moreover, if done properly, I believe you are able to then make inferences into how a player reacts to different situations if you look across a number of different scenarios. For example, if you analyse his performance against the top five sides in the league, the bottom five, when they play at home, when they play away, when he scored a hat-trick and when gets pulled off after 59 minutes for having a nightmare, you are able to generate a profile of the player. Yes, you could send scouts out to watch all of these games (if you have the resources) but a statistical approach combined with video analysis can do this in days as opposed to weeks. As such, an approach that encapsulates statistical analysis combined with live observations in my opinion has to be the most cost effective, efficient and accurate way to assess a player.

While this is one way that analytics can be implemented successfully, it is arguably quite reactive as it is responding to the scout’s thoughts on a player from a game. A more proactive approach is one that uses analytics to profile and select the player that the scout is actually going to watch in the first place. I read recently that James Smith, who presented at the Elite Minds in Sports conference, had been somewhat criticised for likening the level of analytics that he is involved with at Everton to GCSE mathematics. I would like to commend his honesty and agree with him that in a lot of cases the reliance on metrics such as average actions per 90 mins are representative of what is being used at a number of clubs. At LCFC, we attempt to use the data that we have available to us as meaningfully as we possibly can given the environment that we operate within. Sometimes it is not an ideal trade-off, but it is the skill of the technical scout/analyst to make the information that he has compiled influence practice. This isn’t always easy.

At Leicester City, I am very fortunate that the Head of Recruitment is very receptive and delegates a lot of responsibility to myself and Ben Wrigglesworth (Technical Scout) in terms of compiling player shortlists and making recommendations that certain players should be watched. Subsequently, the analysis that we conduct on a number of players has a direct impact on the players that both he and our Senior Scouting Co-ordinator (David Mills) go out and assess with live observations. We select position specific variables that we then rank players with across a variety of leagues and we also conduct in house coding/analysis of serious targets to consider vital off the ball variables that 3rd party data providers are unable to provide us with. We then present a manageable list of players combined with statistical evidence and videos of the players accompanied with our recommendations for who should be viewed live. This relationship and way of working though is underpinned by a trust and a respect for our ability to assess players and our knowledge of the game, which in my case has been developed over a period of about five years. This hasn’t happened overnight! I think it is only with this level of respect and having highlighted players who have gone on to be successful previously that the work I provide is taken seriously.

I wouldn’t suggest for a second that we are using “hardcore” statistics by any stretch of the imagination, but I’d argue we’re not ready for them either. Between us we are trying to ensure first and foremost that the analytic insight we are providing currently is influencing practice. Given the department had no statistical input only 24 months ago, I believe we have made a lot of progress and the analysis that we conduct is now genuinely influencing people’s decision making. I believe that you can make inferences about a player from often the simplest of numbers. Only this summer, we were considering a player who had suffered a very serious injury about three years ago so his minutes played, overall appearances, starts, full appearances and availability for games that he didn’t actually play in following his injury were vitally important data in telling us how he had been affected by it. Data such as this provides an additional insight into how suitable he may be for a team who has to play 46 league fixtures over a more intense period arguably than any other league across Europe. I think both tentative psychological and physical inferences can also be made from patterns within appearance data such as looking at consecutive appearances following a player’s first game back after the injury and the appearances a player makes immediately following their first team debut. Sometimes the most simplistic data can be the most revealing.

In summary, I would refer to both the Recruitment Department at LCFC and myself as a work in process in relation to the complexity of the analytics that we are able to provide but we are constantly evolving and I have an open mind relating to the extent to which it can further influence our daily workings at the club. I believe it is vital for us to able to walk before we try to run and we have established sound analytical foundations. The insight that we are currently providing is having an influence in how we work and it is directly informing the players who are being highlighted throughout the profiling process. I have no doubt, however, that as the complexity of our analysis continues to improve (whilst maintain relevance), our profiling will become even more efficient and selective. One thing that will remain consistent in my opinion, however, is that the best decisions will be made by individuals who acknowledge the importance of both live observations and statistical analysis.

- See more at: http://www.optasportspro.com/about/...g-at-leicester-city.aspx#sthash.FtUAZRHq.dpuf
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MatJspur

MatJspur

Well-Known Member
Sep 3, 2013
124
313
VegasII

VegasII

Well-Known Member
May 14, 2008
9,750
16,670
Spreadsheets?

upload_2015-1-31_22-0-11.jpeg
 
spursfan77

spursfan77

Well-Known Member
Aug 13, 2005
46,714
105,031
Stats scout rather than out and about watching players scout.

You need both nowadays even if I'm a bit sceptical about stats in football nowadays at least they are giving people a living.
 
Kendall

Kendall

Well-Known Member
Feb 8, 2007
38,502
11,933
only spurs could sign multiple people in the player acquisition area but sign no players!
 
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