One way of looking at it...

[CrazyConrad]

Perspective is always in short supply in the opening weeks of the season, but last week Liverpool fan Dan Kennett provided an interesting take on the race for fourth.

He suggests that based on last season’s results, Liverpool and Spurs are exceeding expectations, whilst Arsenal are faltering. The measurement is simple: what is the difference in points between results this season and the exact same games last season?

The metric somewhat accounts for difficult fixture lists to start the season (see Bolton), and is essentially a simple way of assessing a team’s progress.

For example, Blackburn have won four points from seven games this season. From the corresponding games last season, Rovers collected nine points, a negative difference of five. We get the relative points change by dividing this by the number of games Blackburn have played, ignoring matches against promoted teams.

Across the division, we get a sense of who is improving and who might be going backwards.

The table highlights Newcastle as the overachievers thus far; whilst this is already indicated by the regular league table, it contradicts criticism that they have had it easy so far. Alan Pardew’s team has managed to improve in beating ‘weaker’ teams when they may have stumbled last season, a sure sign of progress.

At the bottom, Arsenal’s reversals against Liverpool, Blackburn and Spurs were all worse results than the corresponding fixtures in 2010/11, leaving them rock bottom in this regard.

Title contenders Chelsea and Man United may have made strong starts to the season, but this is perhaps no more than we’d expect given the games they’ve played. Equally Bolton’s home point against Man United last season was the only difference between results over the two seasons thus far (ignoring results versus promoted teams).

Needless to say there are a number of factors unaccounted for, not least form, injuries and ‘freak’ results – should Wolves’ win at Anfield last season work against them in the league table above? – but it’s an uncomplicated way of quantifying results relative to expectations. The numbers shouldn’t be interpreted for any serious analysis, merely act as food for thought.

Found this on a toon forum.

 

[Lilbaz]

The only problem is that the next 9 games we've got, we had a stupidly good points total last season (there was a thread but I can't find it, something like 23 points) so expect us to drop as it would be title winning form to emulate it.

 

[900triumph]

The only problem is that the next 9 games we've got, we had a stupidly good points total last season (there was a thread but I can't find it, something like 23 points) so expect us to drop as it would be title winning form to emulate it.[/QUOTE

So what exactly would be wrong with title winning form? If we achieved those results last year it is possible to repeat them. None of those teams apart from, arguably, Newcastle, have improved more than we have. 3 pts at The Mags would set us up nicely! COYS!

 

[RichSpur58]

A good league campaign comes from winning away games IMO. 3 points at home is expected most of the time, but to get a high position in the league we need to win consistently away from home.

Wigan and Wolves are excellent results. Hopefully we can do it at St James' but it will be a little more difficult.


Out of all the teams competing for the top 4 I think we are the hardest to break down and we probably have a little more firepower. Thats if Ade and Ledley are fit though. If not its a much different picture.

 

[StartingPrice]

So, what you are saying is some retarded Barcoder has put this together to prove that they are incredibly good, and not a mid-table team who has had quite an easy start to the season :shrug:

 

[CrazyConrad]

So, what you are saying is some retarded Barcoder has put this together to prove that they are incredibly good, and not a mid-table team who has had quite an easy start to the season :shrug:

If you look at the first sentence you will see that a pool fan put this together

Reading through the toon forums most of them are realistic and see themselves as a mid table team and would be delighted to get a top 7 finish.

They are hoping for a win but alot of them would easily take 1 point and a fair bit of them feel their first loss of the season will come against us.

 

[StartingPrice]

If you look at the first sentence you will see that a pool fan put this together

Reading through the toon forums most of them are realistic and see themselves as a mid table team and would be delighted to get a top 7 finish.

They are hoping for a win but alot of them would easily take 1 point and a fair bit of them feel their first loss of the season will come against us.

1) I didn't read it, just scanned the table

2) I was having a laugh :roll:

3) I take immense joy from slating the Barcodes in any way possible

:razz:

 

[Spurger King]

Liverpool fans really will go to any lengths to put themselves above us :lol:

 

[StartingPrice]

Liverpool fans really will go to any lengths to put themselves above us :lol:

That was my next point :wink:

Also, Konrad is crazy

 

[Lilbaz]

The only problem is that the next 9 games we've got, we had a stupidly good points total last season (there was a thread but I can't find it, something like 23 points) so expect us to drop as it would be title winning form to emulate it.[/QUOTE

So what exactly would be wrong with title winning form? If we achieved those results last year it is possible to repeat them. None of those teams apart from, arguably, Newcastle, have improved more than we have. 3 pts at The Mags would set us up nicely! COYS!

Nothing wrong at all, I would love if we could do even better. But it's going to be incredibly difficult.

I remember someone bringing something similar 09-10 season to show that we were not doing that much better than we did the first 8 games of the 08-09 season under Ramos. Yet we finished 4th.

 

[Azazello]

Is 6 games from 38 a big enough sample to come to any meaningful conclusions?

 

[StartingPrice]

Is 6 games from 38 a big enough sample to come to any meaningful conclusions?

AFAIAC our first two games demonstrated absolutely zilch about us as a club. WIth our best player nobbled by the Chavs (and the FA should be looking into the way they unsettled their rivals' best player into not playing/performing in two such important games :bang. We hadn't completed our two most important pieces of transfer business. And we were seriously lacking in the midfield and defensive departments due to injuries.

With the addition of Parker and Adebayor, and Modric playing properly, and Ledders in the side, I, for one, think we could give United a bluddy good run for their money if that game was played now. The same applies for Citeh, except Adebayor wouldn't be able to play.

So, from 4 games we have won four - I wouldn't read to much into that, either, we will have dips in form...it will happen.

 

[SlickMongoose]

The only table that really matters is this one.

 

[SpurSince57]

Is 6 games from 38 a big enough sample to come to any meaningful conclusions?

Well, as Jim Duggan on TopSpurs points out, since real football began in 1992 our two best performances over the first six games have been under Harry. Hoddle actually did better in 02-03, but played no elite opposition, whereas this season and in 09-10 we had our toughest starts yet.

http://www.topspurs.com/jmdview.htm

 

[worcestersauce]

I actually think it's a valid view, to compare the first six games last year with the first six this year would make no sense as the opposition would be different so to compare with the corresponding games is more accurate, of course you do have to look at the relative quality of the other side compared to last year but a score of +5 over only six games must show an improvement not forgetting that Utd & City caught us when we were not at our best for various reasons so since then its +6 over four games; I'll take that as a positive.

 

[Azazello]

Based on our last match, I not only expect us to win the rest of our matches, but to play them all at home too.

 

[StartingPrice]

Based on our last match, I not only expect us to win the rest of our matches, but to play them all at home too.

:rofl:

Using the same analogy, we could also expect our disgruntled fans to argue endlessly about how wrong Redknapp got his formations :wink:

 

[Azazello]

:rofl:

Using the same analogy, we could also expect our disgruntled fans to argue endlessly about how wrong Redknapp got his formations :wink:

We'll do that anyway!

Arsenal's in real trouble, all away fxtures. They're going down. I thought they might manage a top 10 finish, but the die is cast now.

 

[camaj]

Perspective is always in short supply in the opening weeks of the season, but last week Liverpool fan Dan Kennett provided an interesting take on the race for fourth.

He suggests that based on last season’s results, Liverpool and Spurs are exceeding expectations, whilst Arsenal are faltering. The measurement is simple: what is the difference in points between results this season and the exact same games last season?

:bang:

Does no one read my sig? It's exactly the thing you described!

Ranking the teams isn't that important, if Blackburn were the most improved team it wouldn't mean they were going to win the league, just that they'd have a better chance of finishing higher up. Working out the points per game improvement is ok but I think working in absolutes is more indicative. If we're 7 points ahead of schedule that would mean that all we'd have to do is match last seasons points in the remaining games to finish 4th.

I've also started to think about comparing results against the same team in the same season. For example, we've played ManU(a) and Liverpool(h) and so have Arsenal. We got 3pts and they got 0pts although at this stage in the season there's not many fixtures that teams have in common with each other.

 

[Spurs1960]

If you look at the first sentence you will see that a pool fan put this together

Reading through the toon forums most of them are realistic and see themselves as a mid table team and would be delighted to get a top 7 finish.

They are hoping for a win but alot of them would easily take 1 point and a fair bit of them feel their first loss of the season will come against us.

I'm in the Garden of England and my mate in Newcastle tells me they are shocked by their start to the season, they can't believe it as they expected to struggle. I had them ear marked for 13th - 15th.

Man Utd, Man City, Spurs, Chelsea was my pre-season thoughts but after decent buys by Chelsea I have them as favourites to grab 3rd and us favourites to grab 4th.