Our remaining away games

[joey55]

I've never really taken the threat of relegation seriously. But i was just looking at our remaining away games and other than Villa (which is a very tough game anyway), we've got only games up north. These a typical of the kind of games we struggle in. I really don't particuarly fancy our chances in any of them. There are no games there that I see us as clear favourites to win. Maybe Hull, but the rest are either top 6 teams or very physical sides who wont let us play.

Wigan
Bolton
Hull
Sunderland
Villa
Blackburn
Man Utd
Everton
Liverpool

And at home we've still got Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City (who might have spent a fortune by then.)

Looking at these fixtures, i actually think we'll only end up with about 42 points and that might not be enough!

 

[General Levy]

we are still not going to be relegated

 

[kcmei]

everyone will just have to give that little bit extra

 

[joey55]

we are still not going to be relegated

What if I told you that in our games north of the midlands, last season we played 11 and took 6 pts out of a possible 33. This season we've played 4 and taken just 3 points. That means in our last 15 games up north, we've managed a grand total of 9 points!

 

[fieryjack]

Calm down, stop trying to ruin everybodys weekend.
We wont go down, The General knows the score.
Although a win tomorrow will be VERY welcome.

 

[DC_Boy]

I think 42 points will suffice (99% sure on that) - almost certainly 40, with the decent goal difference we have, should do it (reckon about 80% sure on 40 points)

there are quite a few teams that look like they will only hit 38 or less, even hull can be dragged back in it if they lose to AFC next week

teams like pompey boro and bolton are in terrible form

wba will do brilliantly to hit 40 points let alone more - ditto stoke

when HR came in we needed to get 14 points from every 10 games for absolute safety (44 pts) and 13 from 10 for almost certain safety (41)

so far we have 18 from 12, so only 10 pts needed from the next 8 to stay on schedule, of course 11 or 12 would be a very nice bonus

looking at those away fixtures, I'd fancy us to get about 7pts from them, (I think for example we may well win at Hull who are liable to hit free fall soon, if they continue their current run)

so we'd need 17 pts from 9 home games for sure safety (44)

but I go with you Joey probably about 42 pts is what we're looking at

however HR now has a strong squad to choose from (apart from GK where we are frighteningly reliant on gomes)

so I'd be hoping with some luck on injuries and buying a back up keeper and maybe two more players we're gonna at least keep up HR's current average of 1.5 pts per game, which will give us 47 pts whooh hooh

pf course if he continues with Bentley on the left, scrap all and start looking forward to live championship football on BBC, which I believe is happening next season

 

[scat1620]

Although it would be nice to do significantly better than just about surviving in the Prem this season, I don't think we should write off what an achievement that would be come May, given our atrocious start. Historically, only one side in Premiership history (Southampton) has made as bad a start as our 8 games, 2 points under Ramos and not been relegated at the end of the season. Despite the quality in our squad (albeit some of them have more quality in their footballing reputation than their actual contribution on the field these days) and the fact that it's been a very evenly matched league for all but the top few teams this year, simply staying up would still be [at the very least] a perfectly satisfactory conclusion to our season given the start we made.

In fact, it's only been the freakish even matching of the league this year that gives us any hope at all of a mid-table finish: if we'd made the start we made under Ramos in just about any other season, I'm sure everyone would be no less than elated with the prospect of only just staying up.

 

[Mr Gamgee]

we are gonna have to play every game as if its a cup final, we cant play any other way. One bit of complacency and we will end up in a real battle to saty up.

 

[sheringmann]

Agree. The threat is most certainly there.

 

[DoublePivot]

It starts getting edgy when Joey starts to get analytical and negative.

Are you making assumptions about home game points in that total J55?

 

[hybridsoldier]

we will beat hull, villa, sunderland, and get draws with bolton and blackburn, everton and possibly bolton.

We will be fine, not too good to go down, but we will be fine

 

[doubledecker]

Losing to the likes of West Brom, Stoke , Portsmouth, Sunderland and Newcastle means we deserve to be where we are. If we dont win most of the return fixtures against teams like this we will go down. If we win all 5 then we will be almost safe. I do have the feeling though that our cup runs are generating a false sense of complacency amongst most of our fans . I hope the players are prepared to battle it out starting tomorrow in another must not lose game.

I would like us to sign Appiah and team him with Jenas , Lennon and Ohara in MF at least in some of our matches . I know I will be jeered for daring to suggest Modric be kept on the bench but he can always come on when we need him. I am totally unconvinced we have anyone that can play in a midfield 4 next to him and that includes Appiah. In the relegation struggle we need to battle it out. Modric is fine in all the Cup matches and when we are safe.

 

[DC_Boy]

yep dd, zokora and modric haven't convinced as CMs in a 4-4-2 and I want jj back tomorrow

it may be have to play a 'tough mid' including jj zoko & o'hara v wigan

big choices for HR

 

[doubledecker]

yep dd, zokora and modric haven't convinced as CMs in a 4-4-2 and I want jj back tomorrow

it may be have to play a 'tough mid' including jj zoko & o'hara v wigan

big choices for HR

We do need an upgrade on Zokra and hopefully that is Appiah. Jenas and Zokora together dont impress . I definitely think in games like Wigan that we cannot have both Modric and Lennon together in a 4. I also would like to see Zokora and Corluka swiching.

So either Jenas- Corluka- Modric- Ohara

OR

Lennon - Corluka- Jenas- Ohara

 

[joey55]

It starts getting edgy when Joey starts to get analytical and negative.

Are you making assumptions about home game points in that total J55?

What has got me really edgy is the fact we are playing so many northern teams. People look at our away record in general for the last couple of years and say it isn't very good, but if you look at the away record up north it's even worse. Whenever we play smaller teams like Sunderland and Bolton etc we as fans more often than not fancy our chances. But the grim reality is that in the two seasons we've won just 1 game in the north and that is out of 15. We average 0.6 pts per game. If we carry on like that we'll end up with 5 pts from our remaining away games. It doesn't sound like many, but it fits in with our previous form.

At home since Harry tookover we've averaged 1.8 points per game. That suggests we'll get around 16 points. We aren't as good now as we were when BMJ was in charge and we only averaged 2 pts per game at home then, so it's unlikely we'll average any higher than 1.8 per game. So if we add the 16 pts to the 20 we already have, then it leaves us on 36 pts. So our survival very much depends how we do away from home at grounds where we've been shit for the last 2 years.

 

[Rackybear]

Joey, one suggestion. Throw the stats out of the window.

Ive seen numerous thread's on this board, and id bump them up if I could be bothered to find them - but what you will find is that the form book or what you might think are easy/hard matches never turn out to be as you might have expected.

I remember one thread in which we had just started our poor start under Ramos, and it was suggesting how we would turn things around, with matches against the likes of Hull, Stoke, Pompey and so on coming up, turns out we took 0 points from those matches.

Then a few weeks later, Ramos was gone, and 'Arry had just about the worst possible fixture list he could have asked for:- Bolton, followed by Arsenal, Liverpool and City - but we took 9 points from those matches.

Football is too unpredictable, let me tell you that. Games can be easy or hard on paper, but what happens on the football pitch is a different matter.

Bump this thread having gone through a handful of these matches, and you might well be right, but you could well be shocked too.

Just for the record - I dont think we will get relegated.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

On a side note..

Whats the process for getting tickets for away games, I go to uni in Hull...so it would be more then convenient for me to watch that match.

Do I have to go through the site, or if the allocation is not filled, can I buy them from the stadium on matchday?

 

[General Levy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/barclays-premiership/relegation

we're 11th favs for the drop

 

[hughy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/barclays-premiership/relegation

we're 11th favs for the drop

I'd take a 9th place finish right here, right now.

 

[DC_Boy]

At home since Harry tookover we've averaged 1.8 points per game. That suggests we'll get around 16 points. We aren't as good now as we were when BMJ was in charge and we only averaged 2 pts per game at home then, so it's unlikely we'll average any higher than 1.8 per game. So if we add the 16 pts to the 20 we already have, then it leaves us on 36 pts. So our survival very much depends how we do away from home at grounds where we've been shit for the last 2 years.

yep joey about 16 home pts is summat like I'm looking at, and that should be enough as I think we can take about 7 away points and 43 will be fine

of course it's all fine margins, but I've known we've been in a relegation from very early on, so it's not such a shock to me

I was surprised that a lot of people couldn't see it, once we getting no goals and one point from home games with hull and wigan, coupled with the other poor shows it was clear to see

in fact had JR stayed I had bolton down as a must win or else we probably would be relegated,

HR came and got us out of the drop zone, but never sufficiently that I could relax and say the relegation fight is over

now we're right in it for sure

but as I say 42 points for me is safety - there are quite a few teams who don't look like they have 42 points in their locker this season

 

[worcestersauce]

I think we need to take into accout that before our last three league matches the real optimists among expected 9 points, the averagely optimistic amongs wanted 6 points and the pessimists would settle for 3 points.

We got 1 point, that is a more important stat and trend than any other, judge our run in on that basis and you have to come to the conclusion that we will end up with 27 points.

On another thread people have complained about Paul Merson tipping Wigan to win today but you have to say that everything points to him being right, we lost 2-0 to WBA for Christ sake.
Today's result is absolutely massive we are past squeaky bum time folks we very close to that bowel evacuation moment.