Race for the Top 4 - 2017/18

[murichej]

What if..

We get 3rd and Chelsea get 4th.

But then Liverpool win CL and Arsenal win EL so Chelsea miss out on CL next year.

Not nice to see Liverpool and Arsenal getting trophies but absolute gold about Chelsea's case

 

[yido_number1]

What if..

We get 3rd and Chelsea get 4th.

But then Liverpool win CL and Arsenal win EL so Chelsea miss out on CL next year.

Not nice to see Liverpool and Arsenal getting trophies but absolute gold about Chelsea's case

I'd rather Chelsea were out of the champions league and Liverpool and Arse not winning trophies. Best case would be Burnley having a late surge with a double points bonus and overtaking them all. Arsenal have to be out of the champions league again to keep them down. I don't think it makes a difference for the chav's. Be nice to finish top london club for the 2nd year running and be guaranteed champions league again next year via 3rd place.

 

[Lighty64]

Guys, how many times can we talk about this ?

Here’s an idea, read the thread

ain't got time to read 208 pages

so what was the answer please

 

[Lighty64]

I don't want to see Arsenal or Liverpool win trophies (even though I covered the possible misery with a small bet on them winning them as I'm such a shit gambler it most probably won't happen, but would only be really profitable if Liverpool finished 5th), but the fun if the scoucers lost in the final, and missed out on CL would be so funny on RAWK, and it will all be because Harry and Lamela dived.

 

[Roynie]

Guys, how many times can we talk about this ?

Here’s an idea, read the thread

Whilst you are right, not everyone has the time to go back and read the whole thread. Sometimes it as easy to repeat the rule rather than say Go back and read the bloody thread!

 

[Roynie]

ain't got time to read 208 pages

so what was the answer please

http://www.spurscommunity.co.uk/index.php?threads/race-for-the-top-4-2017-18.129737/post-5864354

 

[WiganSpur]

It's really unlikely that Liverpool will miss out on the CL.

Imagine putting all this into an accumulator:

-Spurs to pick up at least 6 points from their next 3 games

-Chelsea to beat Liverpool and win all other remaining games

-Liverpool to drop points at home to Brighton on the final day

-Liverpool to be beaten in the CL final

 

[coys200]

It's really unlikely that Liverpool will miss out on the CL.

Imagine putting all this into an accumulator:

-Spurs to pick up at least 6 points from their next 3 games

-Chelsea to beat Liverpool and win all other remaining games

-Liverpool to drop points at home to Brighton on the final day

-Liverpool to be beaten in the CL final

Everything there seems pretty feasible, most unlikely is Liverpool draw with Brighton. But then they drew with stoke last week which was more unlikely.

 

[WiganSpur]

Everything there seems pretty feasible, most unlikely is Liverpool draw with Brighton. But then they drew with stoke last week which was more unlikely.

It seems like that individually for each event yeah, but for ALL of those events to happen is especially unlikely.

 

[coys200]

It seems like that individually for each event yeah, but for ALL of those events to happen is especially unlikely.

But each event is individual one happening doesn’t effect the likelihood of the other. Only that if Chelsea beat Liverpool psychologically they may feel the pressure ,so Infact make it more likely . But ultimately they are all individual unconnected events.

 

[WiganSpur]

But each event is individual one happening doesn’t effect the likelihood of the other. Only that if Chelsea beat Liverpool psychologically they may feel the pressure ,so Infact make it more likely . But ultimately they are all individual unconnected events.

I suppose. It'd actually be quite interesting to see what odds some bookies would give you for it.

I think what will seal it for Liverpool is that they've basically got two cracks at the CL now. It would be absolutely hilarious to see them miss out but objectively I think it's highly unlikely unless something happened to Salah etc.

If they somehow bottled the game tonight I think that would make things interesting too.

 

[worcestersauce]

I'm not overly bothered about Liverpool winning the CL, on balance I'd rather they didn't but if they do you have to say well done, what I want is us to finish third(if we can't get second) and Chelsea not to make top four which puts Liverpool fourth, sure I'd prefer Burnley or somebody else but we've got hobson's choice here and as long as we come third at worst the rest doesn't matter to me.

 

[THFCjosh]

Keys to the City.


Not that anyone in Liverpool uses keys.

They do... just not to open doors

 

[Saoirse]

I suppose. It'd actually be quite interesting to see what odds some bookies would give you for it.

I think what will seal it for Liverpool is that they've basically got two cracks at the CL now. It would be absolutely hilarious to see them miss out but objectively I think it's highly unlikely unless something happened to Salah etc.

If they somehow bottled the game tonight I think that would make things interesting too.

A quick approximation using lay odds on Betfair is that it'd be just over 22/1 for Liverpool to miss out on the top 4 and not win the Champions League.

 

[Singaspur]

I want to absolutely minimise the chance that we miss out on top 4. Even though (you may say) we only need 5 or 4 points to guarantee it, I wouldn't want even a tiny marginal increase in the risk that we miss out in exchange for any possible increase in the chance of some other desirable outcome e.g. that we get 3rd.

So right now, not knowing how we will do against WBA, I want Pool to win.

If we beat WBA, I want Pool and Chelsea to draw - which would ensure 4th but maximise our chances of overtaking Pool for 3rd.

If we draw or lose to WBA, no question I want Pool to win.

 

[WiganSpur]

I'd take a Liverpool win over Chelsea in all honesty. If we beat WBA then that seals fourth for us and prevents heart attacks.

Could be a good opportunity for Poch to try out some youngsters as well but I don't think he will.

 

[Singaspur]

... and btw the absolute slit your wrists, disaster scenario is that we DO finish 4th but Chelsea overtake us and Pool for 3rd and then Pool win CL and Arse win UEFA and we miss out on CL. That is only possible if Chelsea beat Pool.

 

[WiganSpur]

A quick approximation using lay odds on Betfair is that it'd be just over 22/1 for Liverpool to miss out on the top 4 and not win the Champions League.

Wow that seems like poor odds to me, especially considering they'd need to fuck up at home to Brighton. I suppose there could be the CL distraction factor but it's hard to see them being unprofessional enough to blow it. If they lose to Chelsea no way is Klopp taking that game lightly.

 

[Saoirse]

Wow that seems like poor odds to me, especially considering they'd need to fuck up at home to Brighton. I suppose there could be the CL distraction factor but it's hard to see them being unprofessional enough to blow it. If they lose to Chelsea no way is Klopp taking that game lightly.

I agree. Notably there's a huge difference between the bookies and the analysts here. The bookies give Liverpool a 7.4% chance of missing out on the Top 4, whereas stattos (e.g. FiveThirtyEight) are putting it at around 3%, and I think they're much closer to the mark here.

(Although the bookies don't really need to be close to the mark - nearly nobody will bet on things which are extremely odds-on except as part of accumulators which are generally a bad idea for the punter anyway. So the bookie doesn't have to worry about that market, they just want to make sure they don't underestimate the chances of the upset market (in this case, Chelsea to finish Top 4) and have to make a large payout to people who've bet on that. Therefore they might deliberately overestimate the chance of Liverpool missing out to make the odds of Chelsea getting in seem more reasonable. Part of the reason why translating odds to actual chances is useful, but only as a rough benchmark).

 

[ackie]

I'd take a Liverpool win over Chelsea in all honesty. If we beat WBA then that seals fourth for us and prevents heart attacks.

Could be a good opportunity for Poch to try out some youngsters as well but I don't think he will.

I think a draw would be the best result