Same old Keane and Defoe?

[Hoowl]

During their previous spells at the club the goals/game ratios of Keane and Defoe were 0.41 and 0.31 respectively. Since they've come back, their stats look like this:

Player------games --goals------goals/game--------% games scored in
keane --------26------- 12-----------0.46---------------------35
defoe --------20--------11-----------0.55---------------------40

I think 20+ games is a decent number to based statistics on but if we just look at the subset that is this season then we get:

Player------games --goals------goals/game--------% games scored in
keane --------12------- 7-------------0.58----------------------33
defoe --------10--------7-------------0.7------------------------50

My opinion is that Keane is pretty much the same player who left the club, and that's not necessarly a bad thing. Looking at the first set of data, his goals per game is slightly higher than his total for Spurs but it's fairly close given the 26 games played. 0.58 goals per game this season is fantastic but I'm not sure the 12 games he has played this year is enough to draw any strong conclusions. The percentage of our games is which he has scored is around 33% in both sets of data. I have had time to go through his previous time at the club and look at previous data to suggest whether this is abnormal or not. It seems low for the top scorers in the premier league list (Torres=55%, Drogra=64%, Rooney=50%, Van Persie=55%, Agnondlahor=55%, Bent=70%) but he arguable fills the role of 'second striker' whereas our 'main strikers' on the list is Defoe who has scored in a more typical 50%. There only other 'second strikers' on the top 10 premiership scorers list are Jones who has scored in 23% and Bellamy who has scored in 30%. I would imagine that Keanes percentage of games scored in looked better when he was the 'main striker' and he had a Mido or Berbatov to support him.

Defoes stats show a marked improvement from where he left off. I think he's definately improved as a player since he returned from Portsmouth and his form for England reflects this too. Averaging 0.55 goals per game is much better than his 0.31 total club average. At 0.7 goals/game, his form this season is even better than that and I think even the biggest Keane fans conceed that he must be the first striker down on the team sheet, especially as he's now scoring away from home too. His percentage of games scored (50%) in is up with the best strikers in the premier league.

 

[Hoowl]

So are those stats complete rubbish? Is the 20+ game period too small a sample to really mean anything, or do stats just mean nothing anyway?

 

[nicdic]

Good research Hoowl, thanks. :up:

I think the spread of games since their returns to the club is more useful than just this seasons stats, and I think I would possibly take out penalties of any of these stats. Strikers should be marked on goals from open play to even the field a bit more.

I still think that Keane has underperformed since his return, and if you take out the four goals scored against Burnley, then his stats don't look too good at all. Interesting to see that he's games scored in percentage is about the same though.

 

[Dougal]

Good research Hoowl, thanks. :up:

I think the spread of games since their returns to the club is more useful than just this seasons stats, and I think I would possibly take out penalties of any of these stats. Strikers should be marked on goals from open play to even the field a bit more.

I still think that Keane has underperformed since his return, and if you take out the four goals scored against Burnley, then his stats don't look too good at all. Interesting to see that he's games scored in percentage is about the same though.

You still have to score the penalty. Was Keane any better a goalscorer last night for missing the penalty and scoring from open play? I'd have prefered him to get it right first time. And you can't take out a game. Take out Defoe and Crouch's hatricks and their stats are worse but the fact is they scored the goals.

 

[donny1013]

JD is definately a better player since coming back from Pompey, his link up play and strength has definately improved. He is also reaching an outfield players peak age which is usually around 27/28

 

[nicdic]

You still have to score the penalty. Was Keane any better a goalscorer last night for missing the penalty and scoring from open play? I'd have prefered him to get it right first time. And you can't take out a game. Take out Defoe and Crouch's hatricks and their stats are worse but the fact is they scored the goals.

Of course you have to score the penalty, but a player is expected to score a penalty, and in the interest of fairness, to compare strikers, I think taking them out puts them on more of an even playing field. As not all strikers take penalties.

My point about the Burnley goals, is that this season over half of Keane's goals were scored in that one game, and I don't think it paints the fairest reflection of his season.

 

[BringBack_leGin]

Decent post, good sleuthing, but unfortunately I predict that it's main effect will be to regurgitate the old boring Keane v Defoe debate.

 

[Bulletspur]

Of course you have to score the penalty, but a player is expected to score a penalty, and in the interest of fairness, to compare strikers, I think taking them out puts them on more of an even playing field. As not all strikers take penalties.

My point about the Burnley goals, is that this season over half of Keane's goals were scored in that one game, and I don't think it paints the fairest reflection of his season.

Well argued. Just shows thats Stats can be interepreted to show what you want them to show.

Here you are trying to reflect the stats from a level playing field but as it contradicts Dougal's opinion (IMO), he is not accepting.

I for one do not rely on statistics for regardless of what it says, I know which of these players I would rather play on Saturday if we had to chose one.

 

[Dougal]

Of course you have to score the penalty, but a player is expected to score a penalty, and in the interest of fairness, to compare strikers, I think taking them out puts them on more of an even playing field. As not all strikers take penalties.

My point about the Burnley goals, is that this season over half of Keane's goals were scored in that one game, and I don't think it paints the fairest reflection of his season.

Shall we discount Keane's header against Hull aswell because maybe Defoe might not have been able to reach it? I really must introduce you to Wingers on cockonball.

 

[Bulletspur]

Shall we discount Keane's header against Hull aswell because maybe Defoe might not have been able to reach it? I really must introduce you to Wingers on cockonball.

Dougal, I believe your argument would have more a basis if both Keane and Defoe took the same amount of, or alternate the penalty taking between them. This is where I believe Nicdic is coming from with regards to fairness. As it is, Keane is the only one that takes them so it will boost his stats.

The irony is if Defoe who is about to score a cert is pulled down, and is denied a goal, but Keane gets one more from the resulting penalty!!

 

[striebs]

It is misleading mixing league and cup together .

Robbies finishing has been poor this season but the reason it looks even worse is due to the phenominal number of chances his movement creates .

If Darren Bent had Keane's movement and knack of being in the right place at the right time like Keano he would score 50 goals a season . Defoe would score much more too .


If you look at the Birmingham City match and Everton last night (yes I know that was Cup) he does everything except score .


If we are looking at goalscoring Stats alone then Bent wipes the floor with Kefoe .

 

[BringBack_leGin]

Dougal, believe you argument would have a basis if both Keane and Defoe took the same amount of, or alternate the penalty taking between them, this is where I believe Nicdic is coming from with regards to level the playing field. As it is, Keane is the only one that takes them so it will boost his stats - therefore how come it can be classed as equal opportunities?

The irony is if Defoe who about to score a cert is pulled down. He is denied a goal, but Keane gets one more from the resulting penalty!!

like v Burnley :-D

 

[Dougal]

Dougal, I believe your argument would have more a basis if both Keane and Defoe took the same amount of, or alternate the penalty taking between them. This is where I believe Nicdic is coming from with regards to fairness. As it is, Keane is the only one that takes them so it will boost his stats.

The irony is if Defoe who is about to score a cert is pulled down, and is denied a goal, but Keane gets one more from the resulting penalty!!

I'm fully aware of where nic is coming from, that's why I'm here. He's Samuel L Jackson to my Bruce Willis (Unbreakable), we couldn't exist without each other

 

[Tickers]

I love it when people say about stats "Yeah, well, if you took out this goal and that goal and that other game where he scored four, his record would be shit."

Well, yes, of course it would. What's your point?

As a cricket fan, I've lost count of the number of times I've heard people say of Collingwood "If you take out his 206 in Adelaide..." It's meaningless. You can't do that with statistics. You might just as reasonably counter (and I nearly always do) "Well, if you take out every time Paul Collingwood got out for less than 100 his average would be immense."

That's why they're averages, or goal ratios or whatever. They are a record based over time, including the highs and lows to paint some sort of general picture. You can take them over a specific timeframe if you like, but you cannot cherry-pick which games or goals or innings or whatever do or do not count just to massage an argument.

 

[davros]

Decent post, good sleuthing, but unfortunately I predict that it's main effect will be to regurgitate the old boring Keane v Defoe debate.

You are probably right, but we've had decent success with the Keane/Defoe partnership which makes the debate less fierce. We are also without Berbatov as a certain starter up front, and have Crouch, Keane and Defoe all in serious contention for a place. What the stats show is that Defoe scores in more games (in the small sample size so far this season), and has a case to be first choice alongside Keane or Crouch (or even Pav), each of whom can form an effective partnership with him. So in conclusion: Your probably wrong. Right?

 

[Hoowl]

I love it when people say about stats "Yeah, well, if you took out this goal and that goal and that other game where he scored four, his record would be shit."

Well, yes, of course it would. What's your point?

As a cricket fan, I've lost count of the number of times I've heard people say of Collingwood "If you take out his 206 in Adelaide..." It's meaningless. You can't do that with statistics. You might just as reasonably counter (and I nearly always do) "Well, if you take out every time Paul Collingwood got out for less than 100 his average would be immense."

That's why they're averages, or goal ratios or whatever. They are a record based over time, including the highs and lows to paint some sort of general picture. You can take them over a specific timeframe if you like, but you cannot cherry-pick which games or goals or innings or whatever do or do not count just to massage an argument.

Absolutely.

 

[Leachie]

Tickers is correct. To add to the penalty debate, I can see what Nicdic is saying (though I do think he is using it as more ammunition for Keane bashing) but Keane takes the penalties because he is obviously considered the best player to do so (Yes, I can see the irony after last night). Therefore you can't exclude them. Anyway, a goal is a goal so it counts in my book.

 

[defoe18]

I love it when people say about stats "Yeah, well, if you took out this goal and that goal and that other game where he scored four, his record would be shit."

Well, yes, of course it would. What's your point?

As a cricket fan, I've lost count of the number of times I've heard people say of Collingwood "If you take out his 206 in Adelaide..." It's meaningless. You can't do that with statistics. You might just as reasonably counter (and I nearly always do) "Well, if you take out every time Paul Collingwood got out for less than 100 his average would be immense."

That's why they're averages, or goal ratios or whatever. They are a record based over time, including the highs and lows to paint some sort of general picture. You can take them over a specific timeframe if you like, but you cannot cherry-pick which games or goals or innings or whatever do or do not count just to massage an argument.

Exactly tickers, im a cricket fan too and 9 times out of 10 player arguments about selection are settled by stats and averages etc.

Stats DONT lie, so what if you underperform one game and then massively over perform in the next, you know what happens if you perform consistantly and score a goal every 1-2 games - you get sold to Sunderland

 

[Kendall]

Exactly tickers, im a cricket fan too and 9 times out of 10 player arguments about selection are settled by stats and averages etc.

Stats DONT lie, so what if you underperform one game and then massively over perform in the next, you know what happens if you perform consistantly and score a goal every 1-2 games - you get sold to Sunderland

Touche :-D

 

[nicdic]

Tickers is correct. To add to the penalty debate, I can see what Nicdic is saying (though I do think he is using it as more ammunition for Keane bashing) but Keane takes the penalties because he is obviously considered the best player to do so (Yes, I can see the irony after last night). Therefore you can't exclude them. Anyway, a goal is a goal so it counts in my book.

The penalty thing is not ammunition for Keane bashing. As much as you all think I'm a Keane basher, I'm not, I treat him as I would any other player. It doesn't matter who's the better penalty taker, I actually think Keane, Defoe and Pavlyuchenko are all fair takers, what matters is that it's unfair to bring them to the table in this kind of comparison, it makes an uneven playing field. What is impressive though is how good the stats are for players like Torres and Drogba, who don't take penalties for their clubs.

Exactly tickers, im a cricket fan too and 9 times out of 10 player arguments about selection are settled by stats and averages etc.

Stats DONT lie, so what if you underperform one game and then massively over perform in the next, you know what happens if you perform consistantly and score a goal every 1-2 games - you get sold to Sunderland

:lol:

Stats don't tell the whole picture. The whole picture, is that apart from one or two games since his return, Robbie Keane has been below the standard he had previously set.