So, we're safe for another year

[bigturnip]

We passed the magical threshold of 40 points tonight, which should be enough for us to retain our Premier League status for another year. It took us just 19 games this year compared to 24 last year, but now that we've ensured survival, and seeing as we're exactly halfway through our season, I thought it would be a good time to look at some stats (I'm also extremely bored) and see what spurious predictions I can come up with for exactly how far we will beat the drop by.

Halfway compared to last 10 seasons:

      P  W  D  L  F  A  GD  Pts Pos Pts2 Chg FPos PChg
01/02 19 8  3  8  30 26 4   27  7   23   -3  9    -2
02/03 19 9  4  6  27 26 1   31  7   19   -7  10   -3
03/04 19 5  3  11 19 29 -10 18  18  34   +16 14   +4
04/05 19 8  4  7  23 18 5   28  7   24   -4  9    -2
05/06 19 9  7  3  27 18 9   34  4   31   -3  5    -1
06/07 19 8  4  7  23 25 -2  28  7   32   +4  5    +2
07/08 19 5  6  8  35 32 3   21  13  25   +4  11   +2
08/09 19 5  5  9  20 23 -3  20  16  31   +11 8    +8
09/10 19 10 4  5  40 22 18  34  5   36   +2  4    +1
10/11 19 9  6  4  29 23 6   33  4   29   -4  5    -1
[B]11/12 19 13 3  3  36 20 16  42  3   ?[/B]

[I]Pts2 = Points in second half of season
Chg = Change in points from first half of the season
FPos = Final position
PChg = Change in position from first half of the season[/I]

42 points after 19 games last season would have seen us top of the Premier League, 1 point clear of Man U.

If we can replicate our first half performance in the second half of the season and finish with 84 points and a +32 goal difference we would have enough points to have won the league in 7 out of the 19 campaigns to date, although only once in the last 8 seasons, which shows just how hard winning the Premier League has become.

Last season was the only season in the last 5 in which we had a poorer second half to the season than first.

On average we get 1.6 points more in the second half of the season than we do in the first half of the season and climb 0.6 (Edit: 0.8) positions in the league, so rounding it up we should finish 2nd with 86 points. If I'd done the same analysis over the last 5 years we would average 3.4 points more and 2 (Edit: 2.4) positions higher, which would leave us top with 87 points.

Ignoring the half-arsed and entirely arbitrary analysis that just relieved some of my boredom, it's actually quite interesting to see how we've progressed over the past decade.

Edit: Just realised I got last season's stats a bit wrong, it actually means that over the last 5 seasons we have averaged a climb in position of 2.4 places, which means we're actually going to finish above 1st place :beer:

 

[Rocksuperstar]

I was thinking about that 40 point barrier as well :lol:

Feels good that the new year has barely even got it's boots on yet and we've already got that out of the way... been a good year so far, that's for sure :up:

 

[cwhite02]

Great first half of the season. Not used to us being talked about as title contenders. Makes a nice change. Will still be happy with a top four finish and anything else will be fantastic, especially if it's the top two positions.

 

[bigturnip]

Great first half of the season. Not used to us being talked about as title contenders. Makes a nice change. Will still be happy with a top four finish and anything else will be fantastic, especially if it's the top two positions.

I think I would be more gutted if we finished 2nd rather than 4th, so close, but no cigar.

 

[Teemu]

Didn't West Ham go down with 42 points a few seasons ago? We shouldn't take anything for granted, we're still in a relegation dogfight.

Typical fickle Spurs fans, we win one game and we get so arrogant. :roll:

 

[Kingellesar]

Wooo, let the celebrations begin.....

Can't believe we've already got 42 points on the board in our first 19 games, I hope we replicate this form going into the 2nd half of the season.

 

[cwy21]

TBF we've probably been safe for a few games now. Looks like 35 might even be safe this year.

 

[Teemu]

Even if we win all our remaining games we can't break the magical 100 barrier. SANTINI OUT.

 

[bigturnip]

Didn't West Ham go down with 42 points a few seasons ago? We shouldn't take anything for granted, we're still in a relegation dogfight.

Typical fickle Spurs fans, we win one game and we get so arrogant. :roll:

Not meant to be arrogant, I even said it was half-arsed and arbitrary analysis, besides we've won 13 games not 1. :razz:

 

[Teemu]

Not meant to be arrogant, I even said it was half-arsed and arbitrary analysis, besides we've won 13 games not 1. :razz:

On the contrary, it's a very interesting analysis, my original post was entirely tongue-in-cheek!