Spurs surpassed expectations in the 2013-14 premiership season

[fatpiranha]

Before everybody hits the WTF button please understand this is not my opinion but the opinion of the bookies, or, to be more accurate the spread betting firms.

At the start of each season the bookmakers issue a handicap form and the spread betting companies issue a list of expected points for each premiership team. The spread companies are more up to date (the handicap forms are published some weeks before the start of the season) so I have used the figures from Sporting Index (SPIN) who are the largest of the sports spread firms. Don't worry, you don't need to understand spread betting to comprehend the table below which I have taken from the spread betting thread in the gambling forum as I think it may be of interest to more than the 3 people who will read it there .

In order of performance against expectation

.................................Original spread..................... Actual Pts .................... Difference
Liverpool ......................... 64-65.5............................... 84 ............................ +18.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .............................. 72 ............................ +18
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .............................. 45 ............................ +13
Southampton ................... 44.5-46............................... 56 ............................ +10
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .............................. 50 ............................ +9.5
Arsenal ........................... 72.5-74 .............................. 79 ............................ +5
Man City.......................... 80-81.5................................86 ............................ +4.5
Newcastle ....................... 44.5-46 .............................. 49 ............................ +3
Hull ................................ 33-34.5 .............................. 37 ............................ +2.5
Spurs.............................. 65.5-67 .............................. 69 ............................ +1.5
Chelsea........................... 80-81.5............................... 82 ............................ +0.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46............................... 42 ............................ -4
West Ham........................ 42.5-44............................... 40 ............................ -4
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44............................... 38 ............................ -6
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .............................. 33 ............................ -7.5
Cardiff ............................ 36.5-38............................... 30 ............................ -8
WBA .............................. 43-44.5 .............................. 36 ............................ -8.5
Fulham............................ 41.5-43............................... 32 ............................ -11
Man Utd.......................... 78-79.5 .............................. 64 ............................ -15.5

I have taken the buy (optimistic) quote (the higher of the 2 figures in the spread) as my baseline. As you can see we got 1.5 points more than expected (3 points more if I had used the sell quote). You can also see we finished right in the middle of the table but still showing a profit if you had backed Spurs. This is only the 3rd season in the history of spread betting that has happened . The other 2 occasions were the 2 seasons previous to this one.

Yet the general consensus on here is that we have massively underperformed this season. The statistics suggest otherwise. For the 3rd season in a row (and for the 1st time in recent memory) we have performed better (in the league at least) than the bookies and spread firms expected us to.

So what has changed? I would suggest it is us, the fan base. We have become the delusional fans we have so often accused others of being. We began the season starry-eyed and drooling over our expensive new signings and when we only performed slightly better than the bookies expected us to we cried into our half empty cups.

We need to realise that other teams are improving as well and can't view things like we are trapped in a bubble. Our expectations at the start of the season were unrealistic. I admit I was as guilty as anyone in this respect but with the benefit of hindsight we might learn to temper those expectations. It won't change how the team performs but (to quote Kipling) it will allow us to "... meet with Triumph and Disaster and treat those two impostors just the same".

 

[michaelden]

Like & Agreed & Winner ratings

 

[UncleFool]

Interesting stuff.
I'm not a gambler but I think I follow. In essence, we have achieved a little more than the bookies predicted. In that light you are right and we haven't done as badly as some of the views expressed on here (and those of my own). It is, as you have highlighted, that others have exceeded their predicted point’s total. Maybe we shouldn’t be having a meltdown then?
Three points spring to mind:
1. I agree that it is our expectations that are higher. This is not a bad thing but it does mean our perspective is slightly skewed. It is often the difference between what you hoped to achieve and what you actually achieve that allows you to ascertain success or failure. Our season was a disappointment if you were expecting a title challenge. And I believe that many were hoping for a season that was played out by Liverpool. I was. I will be again.
2. The main source of my woe was not the points total but the conduct of the club. At times this season the chairman, the manager, the players and even the fans have behaved without class, dignity and professionalism. There has been a lack of bottle on the pitch, a confusion in the boardroom, a maelstrom of anger amongst the fans and some bizarre antics on the touchline and in the press conferences.
3. Performances - sometimes stale, sometimes incoherent, occasionally dull and latterly uncohesive. There has been little to thrill or less to trill about. I love my football to entertain. I respect that there is much more to the game and plaudits are deserved by those who can nullify opposition and also the great tacticians of the game. Most of what I've watched this season has been a lucky dip, often from game to game and occasionally from half to half. We never really hit our stride at any point in the season.
Anyway, we achieved a little more than was expected by the bookies, a lot less than was hoped for and did it with football that confused and infuriated the fans and all of this against a backdrop of unrest and uncertainty. Just another routine season. Bring on the next!

 

[Mullers]

But yet two managers have been sacked despite surpassing expectations.

 

[michaelden]

But yet two managers have been sacked despite surpassing expectations.

surpassing expectations implies we soared past our expected points total. We just scrapped it, and in many games were fairly fortunate to get the points.

 

[Mullers]

surpassing expectations implies we soared past our expected points total. We just scrapped it, and in many games were fairly fortunate to get the points.

But we still surpassed expectations even if we did scrape it and two managers still got sacked

 

[guiltyparty]

But we still surpassed expectations even if we did scrape it and two managers still got sacked

I don't think either Harry, AVB or Sherwood were sacked for results or points tally. All seemed personality related to me

 

[rsmith]

I don't think either Harry, AVB or Sherwood were sacked for results or points tally. All seemed personality related to me

Exactly , 'arry for flirting with Abramovich which pissed Lewis off, AVB for playing dreary football which pissed me off, and Sherwood was only ever on probation.

 

[guiltyparty]

Exactly , 'arry for flirting with Abramovich which pissed Lewis off, AVB for playing dreary football which pissed me off, and Sherwood was only ever on probation.

Think Harry did a bit more than that

But yes, it's this huge, media-perpetuated myth that our managers are fired for performance. Is an easy story for them; "what does Levy expect?!" Etc. But it's this kind of faux naive, purposefully missing the point coverage by writers intelligent to know better, playing to their boneheaded crowd, that is what's killed a lot of sports journalism

You could argue Jol was sacked for not getting 4th, I guess, though going on the 'director scorned' sacking history of Levy, maybe his Newcastle flirtation saw his card marked

Dunno

 

[pook]

But yet two managers have been sacked despite surpassing expectations.

I'd be a bit disappointed if the club's expectations weren't a bit higher than the bookies'.

 

[C0YS]

We still performed bellow expectations. The betting there had us in 5th we finished 6th. Points are only of value in context. Outside it they are numbers, which I guess you can bet on, but have no correlation with performance.

We achieved higher points tally than expected by the bookies as they expected a point distribution similar to that before 2012-2013. The point distribution, however, ended up with an even larger gap than before. That is why our point tally is above what was predicted.

Size of point tally, however, is not in itself an indication of strength or achievement. Rather it is just an ordering device. The quality in the lower ends of the premier league were really weak. Most importantly anyone from Swansea downwards were at a much poorer level than in previous seasons. Therefore to perform on par we had to beat these weaker teams more often if you like. The expectation for point total changes based on the nature of the league. The relative position of the teams, however, is fixed and measurable and is unchanged to changes in quality etc.

 

[malin]

I didn't agree with the AVB sacking, but I think calling the Sherwood departure a sacking is misleading.

The timing of the AVB sacking (mid-season) made it difficult to bring in a long term replacement therefore Sherwood was installed as a caretaker manager, as demonstrated by the break clause.

I'm sure Sherwood was aware of this but felt that it was an opportunity to good to miss.

Although I don't agree with the way Levy handled the AVB situation, I can't in any way fault him for his handling of the Sherwood situation.

 

[onthetwo]

I'm not reading this shit.....we're you drunk when you wrote it?

 

[sheringmann]

I thought so myself yesterday....we got 69 points after selling one of the worlds best players. 3 less than last year. I would probably have taken that before the season (believing it would get CL...) But somehow this season....we were just never in it....it was just boooooring.....and then I concluded with that it was a disappointing season all in all..

 

[walworthyid]

The league has been astonishingly weak for at least 2 seasons and that has papered over a lot of cracks! This season's spurs team would not have got 60 pts 4 years ago in my opinion.
We haven't surpassed my expectations in an way at all. Poor football, multiple beatings, poor home form etc.

 

[absolute bobbins]

Quoting Kipling. Bravo Sir

 

[SteveH]

I'd be a bit disappointed if the club's expectations weren't a bit higher than the bookies'.

They were! thus the p45's

 

[FinnYid]

I'd be a bit disappointed if the club's expectations weren't a bit higher than the bookies'.

They were, but those by the bookies were the realistic ones.

 

[Gilzeanking]

We still performed bellow expectations. The betting there had us in 5th we finished 6th. Points are only of value in context. Outside it they are numbers, which I guess you can bet on, but have no correlation with performance.

We achieved higher points tally than expected by the bookies as they expected a point distribution similar to that before 2012-2013. The point distribution, however, ended up with an even larger gap than before. That is why our point tally is above what was predicted.

Size of point tally, however, is not in itself an indication of strength or achievement. Rather it is just an ordering device. The quality in the lower ends of the premier league were really weak. Most importantly anyone from Swansea downwards were at a much poorer level than in previous seasons. Therefore to perform on par we had to beat these weaker teams more often if you like. The expectation for point total changes based on the nature of the league. The relative position of the teams, however, is fixed and measurable and is unchanged to changes in quality etc.

Absolutely correct . Simple points tally is not the issue . Several higher up clubs have exceeded their expected points tally simply because the lower clubs have performed worse .

Using these figures a rod to beat 'delusional' Spurs fans seems a pretty poor way of spending time tbh .

 

[guiltyparty]

By that chart, Southampton overperformed by 8.5 points more though.

So Poch over Sherwood all day, right?