- Jun 9, 2003
- 8,337
- 21,678
Before everybody hits the WTF button please understand this is not my opinion but the opinion of the bookies, or, to be more accurate the spread betting firms.
At the start of each season the bookmakers issue a handicap form and the spread betting companies issue a list of expected points for each premiership team. The spread companies are more up to date (the handicap forms are published some weeks before the start of the season) so I have used the figures from Sporting Index (SPIN) who are the largest of the sports spread firms. Don't worry, you don't need to understand spread betting to comprehend the table below which I have taken from the spread betting thread in the gambling forum as I think it may be of interest to more than the 3 people who will read it there .
In order of performance against expectation
.................................Original spread..................... Actual Pts .................... Difference
Liverpool ......................... 64-65.5............................... 84 ............................ +18.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .............................. 72 ............................ +18
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .............................. 45 ............................ +13
Southampton ................... 44.5-46............................... 56 ............................ +10
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .............................. 50 ............................ +9.5
Arsenal ........................... 72.5-74 .............................. 79 ............................ +5
Man City.......................... 80-81.5................................86 ............................ +4.5
Newcastle ....................... 44.5-46 .............................. 49 ............................ +3
Hull ................................ 33-34.5 .............................. 37 ............................ +2.5
Spurs.............................. 65.5-67 .............................. 69 ............................ +1.5
Chelsea........................... 80-81.5............................... 82 ............................ +0.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46............................... 42 ............................ -4
West Ham........................ 42.5-44............................... 40 ............................ -4
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44............................... 38 ............................ -6
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .............................. 33 ............................ -7.5
Cardiff ............................ 36.5-38............................... 30 ............................ -8
WBA .............................. 43-44.5 .............................. 36 ............................ -8.5
Fulham............................ 41.5-43............................... 32 ............................ -11
Man Utd.......................... 78-79.5 .............................. 64 ............................ -15.5
I have taken the buy (optimistic) quote (the higher of the 2 figures in the spread) as my baseline. As you can see we got 1.5 points more than expected (3 points more if I had used the sell quote). You can also see we finished right in the middle of the table but still showing a profit if you had backed Spurs. This is only the 3rd season in the history of spread betting that has happened . The other 2 occasions were the 2 seasons previous to this one.
Yet the general consensus on here is that we have massively underperformed this season. The statistics suggest otherwise. For the 3rd season in a row (and for the 1st time in recent memory) we have performed better (in the league at least) than the bookies and spread firms expected us to.
So what has changed? I would suggest it is us, the fan base. We have become the delusional fans we have so often accused others of being. We began the season starry-eyed and drooling over our expensive new signings and when we only performed slightly better than the bookies expected us to we cried into our half empty cups.
We need to realise that other teams are improving as well and can't view things like we are trapped in a bubble. Our expectations at the start of the season were unrealistic. I admit I was as guilty as anyone in this respect but with the benefit of hindsight we might learn to temper those expectations. It won't change how the team performs but (to quote Kipling) it will allow us to "... meet with Triumph and Disaster and treat those two impostors just the same".
At the start of each season the bookmakers issue a handicap form and the spread betting companies issue a list of expected points for each premiership team. The spread companies are more up to date (the handicap forms are published some weeks before the start of the season) so I have used the figures from Sporting Index (SPIN) who are the largest of the sports spread firms. Don't worry, you don't need to understand spread betting to comprehend the table below which I have taken from the spread betting thread in the gambling forum as I think it may be of interest to more than the 3 people who will read it there .
In order of performance against expectation
.................................Original spread..................... Actual Pts .................... Difference
Liverpool ......................... 64-65.5............................... 84 ............................ +18.5
Everton ...........................52.5-54 .............................. 72 ............................ +18
C Palace.......................... 30.5-32 .............................. 45 ............................ +13
Southampton ................... 44.5-46............................... 56 ............................ +10
Stoke ..............................39-40.5 .............................. 50 ............................ +9.5
Arsenal ........................... 72.5-74 .............................. 79 ............................ +5
Man City.......................... 80-81.5................................86 ............................ +4.5
Newcastle ....................... 44.5-46 .............................. 49 ............................ +3
Hull ................................ 33-34.5 .............................. 37 ............................ +2.5
Spurs.............................. 65.5-67 .............................. 69 ............................ +1.5
Chelsea........................... 80-81.5............................... 82 ............................ +0.5
Swansea......................... 44.5-46............................... 42 ............................ -4
West Ham........................ 42.5-44............................... 40 ............................ -4
Aston Villa....................... 42.5-44............................... 38 ............................ -6
Norwich........................... 39-40.5 .............................. 33 ............................ -7.5
Cardiff ............................ 36.5-38............................... 30 ............................ -8
WBA .............................. 43-44.5 .............................. 36 ............................ -8.5
Fulham............................ 41.5-43............................... 32 ............................ -11
Man Utd.......................... 78-79.5 .............................. 64 ............................ -15.5
I have taken the buy (optimistic) quote (the higher of the 2 figures in the spread) as my baseline. As you can see we got 1.5 points more than expected (3 points more if I had used the sell quote). You can also see we finished right in the middle of the table but still showing a profit if you had backed Spurs. This is only the 3rd season in the history of spread betting that has happened . The other 2 occasions were the 2 seasons previous to this one.
Yet the general consensus on here is that we have massively underperformed this season. The statistics suggest otherwise. For the 3rd season in a row (and for the 1st time in recent memory) we have performed better (in the league at least) than the bookies and spread firms expected us to.
So what has changed? I would suggest it is us, the fan base. We have become the delusional fans we have so often accused others of being. We began the season starry-eyed and drooling over our expensive new signings and when we only performed slightly better than the bookies expected us to we cried into our half empty cups.
We need to realise that other teams are improving as well and can't view things like we are trapped in a bubble. Our expectations at the start of the season were unrealistic. I admit I was as guilty as anyone in this respect but with the benefit of hindsight we might learn to temper those expectations. It won't change how the team performs but (to quote Kipling) it will allow us to "... meet with Triumph and Disaster and treat those two impostors just the same".