I’m loving all the nastiness, the snidey comments and the total losing of shit by Utd fans and followers. We haven’t had that since the 6-1 routing at their place. That was a false dawn but this feels different - they have no idea what just happened to them.
Mate
Well-Known Member
- Dec 9, 2006
- 1,577
- 3,881
Indeed, the xG value is assigned based on historical shot data (Opta have 300,000 in their database)
The below video explains it pretty well.
Trix
Well-Known Member
- Jul 29, 2004
- 19,511
- 330,451
Yes, based on someone's opinion.
In the Olden days, ya know, when people who couldn't play the game didn't feel the need to make an important contribution, stats in football were pretty much all based on facts.
Those were better days.
I know that opinion isn't for everybody but I'm just old school I'm afraid. I base my judgement on what I see, and I am happy to take on board statistics as long as they are a statement of fact. I have no interest whatsoever in any other type of football 'data'
thePessimist
Well-Known Member
- Jul 4, 2012
- 1,269
- 3,355
did he walk around with a 12inch ban stick?Spotted outside the ground, REALLY hope this is @Archibald&Crooks.
If not, he probably wondered why people were giving him dirty looks all game
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Cel
Well-Known Member
- Jan 31, 2013
- 713
- 1,855
It's more the interpretation of data to reach a conclusion, based off a man made program. Which will inevitably depend on how it's designed.
I'm not saying xG or any other form of data or pure statistics is flawless. I'd argue our game yesterday is proof of that. But I feel like dismissing it as 'opinion' is purposefully wrong.
The data is per definition gathered from the very statistics and facts you say you are happy to take on board. Not someone's opinion. That's is what data is.
Also, good Sir, I don't think it is fair to dismiss something you (seemingly) misinterpret as opinion, only to say that your judgement and opinion is old school and what truly matters?
Honestly, not trying to start an argument here. From my POV, I guess I just don't get your point and it looks to me as if you've dismissed something completely because others have presented it as some form of ultimate truth, instead of a tool to help with analysis and forming opinion.
HarryTed14
Well-Known Member
- May 6, 2018
- 117
- 407
Went yesterday with my 11 year and it was well worth getting back to York at 12:30am.
The fact we kept attacking rather than trying to defend a 1-0 was so refreshing.
The party atmosphere at the end felt like a cleansing/therapy session and had I not had a 4 hour drive home I would’ve stayed dancing for longer.
Loved it!
The fact we kept attacking rather than trying to defend a 1-0 was so refreshing.
The party atmosphere at the end felt like a cleansing/therapy session and had I not had a 4 hour drive home I would’ve stayed dancing for longer.
Loved it!
I'd say it is a collection of data to reach a conclusion. Which some would call evidence. But, as with all forms of statistics, it has been selected and presented by someone (or something made by someone), and is dependent on context. So, again, I'm in no way saying it is a definite measure of truth, while also arguing it can be useful and provides something.
Timberwolf
Well-Known Member
- Jan 17, 2008
- 10,328
- 50,217
One game's xG is pretty meaningless if you watched the game, but over a 38 game season where you can't watch 90% of the matches across the entire league it's a useful way of finding out which teams are over/underperforming, which players are profligate in front of goal and which are better than average finishers, etc.
It needs to be taken with a pinch of salt but it's a much better measure of how good a team's chances are within a game than looking at "number of shots" or possession %.
It needs to be taken with a pinch of salt but it's a much better measure of how good a team's chances are within a game than looking at "number of shots" or possession %.
Most likely wrong but I had the impression Kulusevski grew into the match and looked as if he was at last finding some form. He is such a talent when playing well.
fishhhandaricecake
Well-Known Member
- Nov 15, 2018
- 19,269
- 48,165
Watched the recording of the game this morning. That 2nd goal from us was 15 passes, champagne football 
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Joe Bjorn Hotspur
Well-Known Member
- Jan 16, 2023
- 746
- 1,819
Had no idea of the comments from commentators and a section of Man U fans, the ones I came across yesterday who were actually at the game were alright (old bloke who supported United for over 65 years was caught up in the train cancellations at Paddington with me and other Spurs fans yesterday evening).
What amazed me was when we all got to Bristol gone midnight this teenage boy (probably older as I’m in my mid 30s) started hurling abuse at us all, yes Bristol. While in London nowt. All this crap on Sky and social media these days spills over so quickly: the main reason I’m just on here, twitter / X et al are poisonous pockets of bile and hate.
Out of interest where did you park?
markiespurs
SC Supporter
- Jul 9, 2008
- 11,899
- 15,576
Was at the game yesterday. Atmosphere was fantastic. Thought we played really well and never felt under pressure by United, who are a shadow of their former selves.
Still buzzing from the game and for the first time in a couple of years I’m looking forward to going to games again.
Still buzzing from the game and for the first time in a couple of years I’m looking forward to going to games again.
SUIYHA
Well-Known Member
- Jan 15, 2017
- 1,739
- 8,650
Actually it's quite the opposite. xG isn't calculated by asking some bloke how likely you think it was that a particular chance should have been scored. It looks at data of thousands of historical shots, comparing those with similar distance, angle to goal, type of shot it is (eg - header or volley), the positioning of players around them (most notably the goalkeeper) and generating an overall score of how likely that that particular shot would likely go in based on historical evidence. The reason why this stuff is important is because we all get sucked in to the emotions of the game - "he HAS to score that!" and our own personal biases depending on whether it's a team or a player that we like or dislike taking the shot, whereas xG is supposed to remove such biases and look at it objectively based on what usually happens in that scenario.
There are a number of flaws with xG models - most notably that most only actually look at the shots themselves - eg - if you play a beautiful passing move and carve open the opposition and have a player standing with an open goal if you can only pick him out with a simple final pass, but then you fuck up the simple final pass, it would count as 0 xG because no actual shot is taken - that felt like the case a few times yesterday. Where you could argue that opinion comes into it is the weighting that certain factors take in making the calculation of xG, so two different match reports might give two different xG scores if they use a different calculation system.
But...that doesn't mean it should be disregarded. Top PL teams and managers are all over data science now. Just take a look at the way Guardiola's teams play - it's all about the percentages and creating patterns of play that lead to the highest probability of a goal being scored from any given shot. IIRC they didn't score a single goal from outside the box in the first half of their centurion season, which is why that Vincent Kompany goal against Leicester became so iconic - it wasn't just because it was a late winner in a title race, but because a defender taking a longshot was so against the tactics/philosophy that Pep's data-driven approach had instilled in them that it really stood out. Another example - Arteta was very close to being sacked in late 2020 when Arsenal were hovering above the relegation zone but he used data science to "prove" that his team were doing the right things and that he needed a bit more time and luck to get things right - that is paying off for them now. And Liverpool also did some data driven analysis into Klopp's disastrous final season at Dortmund before appointing him - there was a red flag over him as many thought he'd lost the dressing room or that players had tired of his methods - but the data actually showed that they were still doing all the right things but had been particularly unlucky in the goals that they scored and conceded.
A good book to read on it all if you're interested is this one -
