Match Threads Spurs vs Man U

[spurmin]

Expected goals = includes goals that were never scored.

 

[Gb160]

I’m drinking a monny now, this shit’s delicious.

 

[mark87]

 

[Japhet]

Wouldn't normally bother but I've just spent a highly enjoyable half hour going back to kick off time and skip reading through this thread. Some of it is priceless. The true bi-polar nature of the matchday thread.

 

[Whazam]

Love it!

 

[Bump]

Actually it's quite the opposite. xG isn't calculated by asking some bloke how likely you think it was that a particular chance should have been scored. It looks at data of thousands of historical shots, comparing those with similar distance, angle to goal, type of shot it is (eg - header or volley), the positioning of players around them (most notably the goalkeeper) and generating an overall score of how likely that that particular shot would likely go in based on historical evidence. The reason why this stuff is important is because we all get sucked in to the emotions of the game - "he HAS to score that!" and our own personal biases depending on whether it's a team or a player that we like or dislike taking the shot, whereas xG is supposed to remove such biases and look at it objectively based on what usually happens in that scenario.

There are a number of flaws with xG models - most notably that most only actually look at the shots themselves - eg - if you play a beautiful passing move and carve open the opposition and have a player standing with an open goal if you can only pick him out with a simple final pass, but then you fuck up the simple final pass, it would count as 0 xG because no actual shot is taken - that felt like the case a few times yesterday. Where you could argue that opinion comes into it is the weighting that certain factors take in making the calculation of xG, so two different match reports might give two different xG scores if they use a different calculation system.

But...that doesn't mean it should be disregarded. Top PL teams and managers are all over data science now. Just take a look at the way Guardiola's teams play - it's all about the percentages and creating patterns of play that lead to the highest probability of a goal being scored from any given shot. IIRC they didn't score a single goal from outside the box in the first half of their centurion season, which is why that Vincent Kompany goal against Leicester became so iconic - it wasn't just because it was a late winner in a title race, but because a defender taking a longshot was so against the tactics/philosophy that Pep's data-driven approach had instilled in them that it really stood out. Another example - Arteta was very close to being sacked in late 2020 when Arsenal were hovering above the relegation zone but he used data science to "prove" that his team were doing the right things and that he needed a bit more time and luck to get things right - that is paying off for them now. And Liverpool also did some data driven analysis into Klopp's disastrous final season at Dortmund before appointing him - there was a red flag over him as many thought he'd lost the dressing room or that players had tired of his methods - but the data actually showed that they were still doing all the right things but had been particularly unlucky in the goals that they scored and conceded.

A good book to read on it all if you're interested is this one -

I think my only issue with it is the lack of context for the data. It is useful for reviewing the ability to create good chances, but the player taking the shot has an incredible change on the chance. Kane having a shot from 20 yards out is far more likely to score than Skipp having that same shot. Some players are probably more likely to score from certain positions that the general stats are going to assess. I'm thinking like the NBA where some players in certain shooting positions are lights out.

 

[Grey Fox]

The problem with yesterday's win is that Levy is rubbing his little mits together thinking we beat utd with what we got, so good to go

 

[theShiznit]

The problem with yesterday's win is that Levy is rubbing his little mits together thinking we beat utd with what we got, so good to go

Come on, he knows that we are an injury/suspension away from Dier and/or Sanchez playing, and Ben Davies is not gonna rocket in those worldies every game

 

[Reece_Spurs]

The problem with yesterday's win is that Levy is rubbing his little mits together thinking we beat utd with what we got, so good to go

That's what I was thinking.

You'd love a chairman though that saw that great performance and instead thought to himself "Imagine how even better we'd will be if we bring in 3 more top players"

Forever resting on his laurels Levy.

 

[JacoZA]

The problem with yesterday's win is that Levy is rubbing his little mits together thinking we beat utd with what we got, so good to go

In fairness, there was that time that we beat Man City without Kane and he didn't get Nuno the players he needed, but we ended up having a super great season laden with success and everyone was super happy all the time and it 100% did not end up undoing almost all the good work Poch had done.

 

[N17-77]

We really were quite good, weren't we?
It's odd how many "neutrals" and the media wrote us off before the season began, with lots of talk of 8th place at best.

It's unclear what this ManU team actually do. Their more establised players are largely fading (Casemiro, Eriksen, Varane) or overrated (Fernandes, Martinez).

Without wishing to get too carried away (and hindsight is easy, etc), which ManU players would actually get in our first XI? Maybe Onana, Rashford. Certainly none of the midfield.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

We really were quite good, weren't we?

We were in the second half. To make sure we keep things in perspective, boy did they miss some sitters in the first 30.

It's positive, forward steps, it's a great atmosphere, and the team is young and energetic. Relative to where we were, I'll take that for now.

AND....for the first time in a while, we're buying good players. It's made all the difference.

Sarr, Udogie, Maddison, Bentancur, Bissouma - basically for the same price as Caicedo. It's sensible stuff

 

[McArchibald]

We were in the second half. To make sure we keep things in perspective, boy did they miss some sitters in the first 30.

It's positive, forward steps, it's a great atmosphere, and the team is young and energetic. Relative to where we were, I'll take that for now.

AND....for the first time in a while, we're buying good players. It's made all the difference.

Sarr, Udogie, Maddison, Bentancur, Bissouma - basically for the same price as Caicedo. It's sensible stuff

This, we could well have gone into half-time two goals down and then it's a whole different scenario. Positive signs but we still need reinforcements up front and at centre half. It's a blessing in disguise that Ange will have loads of time to work with the squad at the training ground.

 

[easley91]

This, we could well have gone into half-time two goals down and then it's a whole different scenario. Positive signs but we still need reinforcements up front and at centre half. It's a blessing in disguise that Ange will have loads of time to work with the squad at the training ground.

That Bruno header was a massive turning point.

 

[Waiwonder]

I think it noticeable that our first goal was a result of Kulusevski hitting a first time cross rather than cutting back onto his left foot. It makes such a difference.

Actually it wasn't a first time cross. He dribbled down the byline.

I too had a light bulb moment based on the reason we scored... our wingers were providing more width in the 2nd half. Kulu was in absolute acres of space

 

[npearl4spurs]

Just had a chance to take in the match.

We definitely had the higher quality, but I think in many ways we were more fortunate on the day. There were lots of little moments that could have gone either way. I liked our attitude and the way we played to shift those moments into our favor or turn the balance of the match at the right time. The atmosphere absolutely helped the players and pushed them on. I do think we were blessed today that Rashford and Bruno in particular were not on form and ETH was an absolute bellend to play the same midfield with Mount again.

I thought Deki and Son improved in this match and overall played well, but you can tell those attacking moves and sequences are still very much at work. They are still working through timing of the runs and when to play the passes - you saw that with Maddison and Son, Deki not very inventive for much of the match, and the lack of service and creativity to Richarlison. The things Ange says makes more sense now when he says he sees glimpses of what he likes but we are no where near the finished product and no where near ready for the better teams in the league yet. I think the schedule looks nice for us to continue to build and grow with the three matches away to B'mouth, Fulham (EFL Cup), and Burnley before coming back home for Sheffield United and Liverpool sandwiching away to Arsenal.

The most thankful things right now are 1) the midfield looks so nice right now and 2) Vicario and the players that have made up the back four are all class individually as players and are getting more and more time together. These are a great foundation for us to continue to work on the attacking aspect and ensure we will stay in the matches until things start clicking for the movement and creativity up front.

My big takeaway is that I think we are so joyful to have a likeable manager again who is bringing the fun and the meaning back to our football and our club again. I think quite a few have gotten carried away with this a bit as we are prone to do. It feels good right now but we need to remember we are still very much in the early, early stages of this and we've still got some hard yards and some learning to do yet.

 

[spurmin]

This, we could well have gone into half-time two goals down and then it's a whole different scenario. Positive signs but we still need reinforcements up front and at centre half. It's a blessing in disguise that Ange will have loads of time to work with the squad at the training ground.

Could have? Would have? Should have? All ifs and maybes that never happened. We could have been 2 up at half time as well as being 3-3 or any score for that matter.

 

[philll]

Bit harsh to criticise Mourinho for not playing Bissouma seeing as we signed him under Conte but otherwise a good video.

 

[Gassin's finest]

That's what I was thinking.

You'd love a chairman though that saw that great performance and instead thought to himself "Imagine how even better we'd will be if we bring in 3 more top players"

Forever resting on his laurels Levy.

Why spend money today when you can panic buy some unknown waste of space for an over inflated amount later?

 

[philll]