The 5-Year Plan

[RichieS]

So many people have not read the OP (or at least read it properly). I feel sorry for @rossdapep as he clearly put a great deal of thought into it.

 

[RichieS]

Somehow? I think maybe bringing one of the best strikers in world football through our youth academy probably helped somewhat.
Hope you're not banking on that happening again.
And its gonna take massive investment to replace him with anything close to the same quality and repair the damage done from letting the squad deteriorate if we wanna get back up there.
But you knew what I meant anyway didnt you

Yes I knew what you meant, and it's that which I disagree with and was responding to.

We assembled a footballing operation that was good enough to get within touching distance of the biggest prizes and I believe what we did is repeatable. You don't appear to. Fine, we disagree.

But if the current situation is self-inflicted (it is), then the good stuff must also be described as such.

 

[SUIYHA]

Part of the reason I rated Levy so highly for such a long time is because as a chairman then you need to be judged on 5 year (approx) cycles. What happens in an individual match is primarily down to the players, what happens over the course of a season is primarily down to the manager, but the club owners need to be judged in longer cycles. So starting from 2001, in what state were we in compared with five years earlier across each cycle?

• 2006 - objectively much stronger than 2001 - we were no longer just another crap mid-table club, a new continental structure had been introduced and we'd invested into a promising young spine in Defoe, Keane, Carrick, Lennon, King, Dawson and Robinson that was now good enough to qualify for Europe via the league.
  
  
• 2011 - objectively much stronger than 2006 - now we'd gone one step further and made it into Champions League and had players like Modric, Bale, Van Der Vaart and co.
  
  
• 2016 - objectively much stronger than 2011 - now we were competing for the title under Poch, had strong players in every position as opposed to just a few star individuals, most of our best players were young and on long contracts, and were building a new stadium.

So for the first 15 years or so then I think Levy was consistently excellent in his job. But the last 5 years is a different story:

• 2021 - We now have a bigger stadium but I don't think there's any other metric in which you can say we're in a stronger position than we were five years ago. We have a weaker squad, we're not in the Champions League, we don't have any star players under the age of 24.

What does our 2026 look like? Think it really depends on whether we can fill the stadium again and whether invest the extra revenue it brings into the squad.

 

[rossdapep]

So many people have not read the OP (or at least read it properly). I feel sorry for @rossdapep as he clearly put a great deal of thought into it.

Thanks for saying, mate. I appreciate it.

 

[yankspurs]

I don't know, world will change a lot when ENIC sell the club. What if Ballmer decides to buy a club in England? Or Buss family. Or any successful club owner in other sports. One of Villa's owners is doing a good job in NBA and spends basically whatever they can under FFP and second one is relatively unknown.

With the value we are at now, what we really need is a group of the Steve Ballmer’s of the world

 

[glacierSpurs]

Not saying the OP is proposing it, but I'm so scared stiff by the word '5 years'. Even 3 years sound traumatising. I really cannot imagine 3-5 years down I am still trying to come to terms with my club being on a project, much less for players like Son to feel any differently. It will be so disappointing and sad for some of you who have supported this club decades longer than I do to still waiting out for us to win something when I myself am already starting to run out of patience. Sigh..

 

[asianspur]

Part of the reason I rated Levy so highly for such a long time is because as a chairman then you need to be judged on 5 year (approx) cycles. What happens in an individual match is primarily down to the players, what happens over the course of a season is primarily down to the manager, but the club owners need to be judged in longer cycles. So starting from 2001, in what state were we in compared with five years earlier across each cycle?

• 2006 - objectively much stronger than 2001 - we were no longer just another crap mid-table club, a new continental structure had been introduced and we'd invested into a promising young spine in Defoe, Keane, Carrick, Lennon, King, Dawson and Robinson that was now good enough to qualify for Europe via the league.
  
  
• 2011 - objectively much stronger than 2006 - now we'd gone one step further and made it into Champions League and had players like Modric, Bale, Van Der Vaart and co.
  
  
• 2016 - objectively much stronger than 2011 - now we were competing for the title under Poch, had strong players in every position as opposed to just a few star individuals, most of our best players were young and on long contracts, and were building a new stadium.

So for the first 15 years or so then I think Levy was consistently excellent in his job. But the last 5 years is a different story:

• 2021 - We now have a bigger stadium but I don't think there's any other metric in which you can say we're in a stronger position than we were five years ago. We have a weaker squad, we're not in the Champions League, we don't have any star players under the age of 24.

What does our 2026 look like? Think it really depends on whether we can fill the stadium again and whether invest the extra revenue it brings into the squad.

Rightly said.. we have to look at the start of our cycle to have a long term plan.. Levy has done an amazing job in brining us to this level but now is the time to start and act like a big club ith everthing in place and push on.. We have a big stadium, excellent training facility and a core of top level players.. We need to push on and make the next 5 years into a club pushing the elite and winning stuff... Covid didnt help but we have the capability to push on.. I always believe we should give every manager 3 seasons minimum so hopefully Mourinho can lead the team next season with his players.. He did improve the playing staff this season

 

[SecretLemonadeDrinker]

Maybe we should get you to takeover as manager or DOF take your pick, see if you can bring success at last

I know nothing about tactics or sports science. I would definitely be in the Harry Redknapp tell-them-to-run-around-a-bit mould.

But I'm intrigued......of all the countless posts on SC offering an opinion on football matters, why did you choose this snarky (as I read it) response to mine? I didn't have you down as a Jose fan.

 

[shelfboy68]

I know nothing about tactics or sports science. I would definitely be in the Harry Redknapp tell-them-to-run-around-a-bit mould.

But I'm intrigued......of all the countless posts on SC offering an opinion on football matters, why did you choose this snarky (as I read it) response to mine? I didn't have you down as a Jose fan.

Mate don't get your thong in a twist I was just having a bit fun asking if you want the gig.
FWIW I was pro Jose so you have me wrong shame it has gone tits up.

 

[Neon_Knight_]

Part of the reason I rated Levy so highly for such a long time is because as a chairman then you need to be judged on 5 year (approx) cycles. What happens in an individual match is primarily down to the players, what happens over the course of a season is primarily down to the manager, but the club owners need to be judged in longer cycles. So starting from 2001, in what state were we in compared with five years earlier across each cycle?

• 2006 - objectively much stronger than 2001 - we were no longer just another crap mid-table club, a new continental structure had been introduced and we'd invested into a promising young spine in Defoe, Keane, Carrick, Lennon, King, Dawson and Robinson that was now good enough to qualify for Europe via the league.
  
  
• 2011 - objectively much stronger than 2006 - now we'd gone one step further and made it into Champions League and had players like Modric, Bale, Van Der Vaart and co.
  
  
• 2016 - objectively much stronger than 2011 - now we were competing for the title under Poch, had strong players in every position as opposed to just a few star individuals, most of our best players were young and on long contracts, and were building a new stadium.

So for the first 15 years or so then I think Levy was consistently excellent in his job. But the last 5 years is a different story:

• 2021 - We now have a bigger stadium but I don't think there's any other metric in which you can say we're in a stronger position than we were five years ago. We have a weaker squad, we're not in the Champions League, we don't have any star players under the age of 24.

What does our 2026 look like? Think it really depends on whether we can fill the stadium again and whether invest the extra revenue it brings into the squad.

So you would judge each 5-year cycle based on a snapshot at the end of it, while ignoring everything that went on during the 5 years?
All clubs have peaks and troughs, so to assess things on only the end point while ignoring all of the accomplishments leading up to that point is rather short-sighted.
By your logic, no matter what we achieve during 2021-25, the next 5 years will be judged on how the 2025-26 season goes.

2016-21:
Runners-up in the PL (highest ever PL finish, highest ever PL points tally, scored the most goals in the league and conceded the fewest goals in Europe's top 5 leagues).
Consecutive CL qualifications (a first for the club).
CL finalists (another first for the club).
New stadium completed.
International fanbase has grown.
Revenue and financial standing has grown considerably (in real terms plus relative to Europe's elite).
Down-turn in performances that coincided with spending restrictions linked to the stadium (inevitable) and a global pandemic (a situation that Levy has probably handled extremely well!).

So despite the club achieving its best results on the pitch within recent decades (coming the closest they've ever been to European Champions), launching a world-leading stadium and becoming the 'biggest' the club has been in recent history, it has been a poor 5-year cycle? 3.5 years were amazing and the last 1.5 years has been mediocre (compared to the previous 3.5 years but still very good compared to pre-Levy).

 

[SUIYHA]

So you would judge each 5-year cycle based on a snapshot at the end of it, while ignoring everything that went on during the 5 years?
All clubs have peaks and troughs, so to assess things on only the end point while ignoring all of the accomplishments leading up to that point is rather short-sighted.
By your logic, no matter what we achieve during 2021-25, the next 5 years will be judged on how the 2025-26 season goes.

2016-21:
Runners-up in the PL (highest ever PL finish, highest ever PL points tally, scored the most goals in the league and conceded the fewest goals in Europe's top 5 leagues).
Consecutive CL qualifications (a first for the club).
CL finalists (another first for the club).
New stadium completed.
International fanbase has grown.
Revenue and financial standing has grown considerably (in real terms plus relative to Europe's elite).
Down-turn in performances that coincided with spending restrictions linked to the stadium (inevitable) and a global pandemic (a situation that Levy has probably handled extremely well!).

So despite the club achieving its best results on the pitch within recent decades (coming the closest they've ever been to European Champions), launching a world-leading stadium and becoming the 'biggest' the club has been in recent history, it has been a poor 5-year cycle? 3.5 years were amazing and the last 1.5 years has been mediocre (compared to the previous 3.5 years but still very good compared to pre-Levy).

No that's not the point to only look at the single moment in time, the point is to look at the overall progress over a longer period (of approx 5 years, give or take) as opposed to getting fixated on a single match or even a single season. Let's take the sacking of Martin Jol in 2007 - at the time our fan base was furious, this manager that had led us into the top five for the first time in 15 years and then did it again, instead of being backed with the players he wanted he was the only manager in the country that had a Director of Football overruling him and instead spending the transfer budget on young players. He was sacked with the club hovering around the relegation zone and even though we won the Carling Cup we still finished 11th which meant Keane and Berbatov both asked to leave. By the time Comolli was eventually sacked as well it looked like an absolute disaster - we'd gotten near the big time but blown it, and most people blamed Levy. A couple of seasons later though, it transpired that a lot of those young players that he'd signed were actually quite good, and once a manager who could get the best out of them and complimented them with a few experienced signings, we suddenly had a squad strong enough to actually play in the Champions League which seemed unthinkable when we were losing at home to Hull the year before.

The point for long term owners of a football club is to judge things over a longer period. Yes you want to reach key milestones but in many cases the successes and failures will have come from what was done a couple of years earlier, not in the current season. Prime case in point - the summer 2018 transfer window. No signings at all that season didn't stop us from reaching the Champions League final and finishing in the top four again, but we have really suffered ever since by having too many key players decline and need replacing at the same time instead of having a more gradual turnover. A strategy might work, or not work, in the very short run which is fine for a manager looking to add something to their CV, but for the owners you can't view a single season in isolation, you need to look at the bigger picture.

On that point, all of the successes you highlighted from the past five years - the league finishes, the CL final, the stadium, the revenue growth - all came from the foundations laid up to 2016. By that point we had built practically the entire squad that achieved those goals and had started stadium construction (which was completed 7 months later than planned). But what foundations have we laid in recent times for the next five years? The stadium is our only real asset at the moment, I'd like to see what Skipp, Sessegnon and our returning loanees can do but the future does not look promising as it stands...