Discussion on Spurs share price..

[arnoldlayne]

Nicked form COYS I'm afraid - but they nicked it from the original site.

They think Triumph 3845 posts as Devonian on COYS - who seems to know a lot about Spurs finances (and things like UEFA plans for club debt).

Poster has an interesting viewpoint on Joe Lewis, Jol's sacking, Comolli, etc.

You'll have to read the whole thread and replies to get the gist.


http://forums.tottenhamhotspur.com/showthread.php?t=8263

 

[steve]

This is what's in the thread...

Value of the Club will spur action - Yesterday, 02:54 PM



For anybody that is interested, the share price at noon today was 85p which is only 10p more than the average price paid per Ordinary Share by ENIC in its accumulating 82% of THFC PLC.


At that share price the Club is valued at £156.7 million – the highest the share price has been this year is 181.5p which valued the Club at £334.8 million.


The loss in value of +/- £178 million is due (in the most part) to the poor on the field performances. As has been previously discussed, it is down to “on the pitch success” that brings value to the Club and not asset selling. Any Club that sells its assets, and does not reinvest the cash, will see its value fall.


Based on today’s share price, Levy personally is down £43 million from the share price high and if the Club sold at today’s share price then he would have made a profit of £4.5 million instead of £47.5 million at share price high.


Nothing focuses a businessman more than seeing his investment head South and I know for certain that major shareholders have told both Levy and Lewis, over the last 2 weeks and before yesterday’s match, that relegation is not an option and that the business model they have adopted is flawed vis a vis there is no accountability i.e. who is directly responsible for the “on the pitch failure”?


What has to be remembered is that people like Ashcroft are instrumental in getting our Stadium Project sorted out without our going into unsustainable debt – the Stadium Project only applies to being a PL Club.


The only thing that impresses Lewis is seeing value being built up to a level whereby he can take a good profit – that has clearly gone wrong and Lewis does hold one person accountable and that is the Chairman. Levy’s star was well into its ascendancy with Tavistock but not any more.


Levy knows that he has to do something, if only to appease Uncle Joe – the other major shareholders do not hold enough voting rights to change anything but they do make a lot of noise and they can open up doors for the Club.


People are blaming any permutation of Ramos, Comolli, Poyet and Levy which shows what a ridiculous situation we are in as a Club as there is no accountability – we might as well blame the Accountant too if they stick to the “we are all to blame” comment.


Whether we like it or not, money is a major factor in today’s football and is the only reason why Lewis has invested in THFC – he has seen his investment go belly up so we can be sure that something will be done.


IMO Comolli is going and it was worth noting that both BBC and Sky pundits lambasted Comolli over the weekend – Lawerenson did it on Saturday – the vast majority of people at the Club (excluding players who I cannot speak for) would not be heart broken to see the last of Comolli.


If it is him that goes then at least we will have clear accountability – whether or not Ramos is the right man to take us where we want to go is subjective and everybody will have their own views and opinions on that score but at least if he fails then it is down to him and if he succeeds then he gets all the plaudits.


Incidentally, since starting this thread the share price has now dropped to 82.5p – Paul Barber for Chairman???

 

[arnoldlayne]

MORE FROM THE SAME THREAD:

It was Lewis that gave the order to have a contingency in place when Jol started going against what was previously agreed - the contingency plan became public which affected everybody - results went against us and Jol became a dead man walking - that was it - nothing more and nothing less - no conspiracy from Comolli to get rid of Jol - a situation that was handled in an amateurish way and it snowballed out of control. If the contingency plan had not become public then Jol would have stayed if the results had gotten better - by the same token if Jol had not gone back on what was agreed (twice) then there would have been no contingency plan - the only loser out of that episode was the Club. Comolli just did not have the power that people think he has - Jol reported directly to Levy.

I am fully aware that there are many that wanted Jol to stay and that they believe he could have taken us to the top - that is subjective and we will never know - what is true is that Levy backed Jol all the time even AFTER the infamous meeting in Spain - Levy just wanted Jol to wind his neck in and get on with the job.

With regards to Ramos, it is up to each individual to have an opinion if he is the right person or not - he was certainly the hottest property manager wise throughout Europe when he came to us and I have to admit to being shocked as to how things have worked out with him - he was not my first choice but purely because I did not know that much about him - I wanted either Lippi or van Gaal but obviously I have no say in the matter and it was just my own personal view - who knows how any other Manager could have done?

With regards to Lewis - be under no illusions how ruthless he is - he has a son, Charles, that used to work for ENIC - he was put in charge of the Warner Brothers Studio Stores in the UK and made a spectacular cock up of the business which made ENIC "sell" back to Time Warner at a huge loss - Joe fired Charles for that episode and he no longer works for any part of the Tavistock Group.

Levy is under the spotlight and he has to sort out the mess we are in - doing nothing is not an option.

THEN LATER:

We are due to announce our financial results very shortly and the date for the AGM will be announced when we announce those results. A copy of the Annual Report to shareholders will follow by post and the AGM cannot be less than 21 days after the report is received.

I mention that as IMO whatever is going to happen will happen before the AGM as there will be many direct questions concerning how the business is being run (as opposed to just football questions).

If there is going to be a “restructure” of the business then IMO it will be announced before the AGM in order to deflect the heat. There is not one shareholder, that I have spoken to, that is happy with the lack of accountability within the football side of the business and, of course, they will not be too happy with seeing their investments go down the pan even though the business shows a healthy operating profit.

 

[Defsta]

Really interesting reading, thanks for that dude :up:

 

[arnoldlayne]

Really interesting reading, thanks for that dude :up:

I'm a bit of a fraud 'cos it's off other message boards but thanks anyway!

 

[lazarus]

I doubt Lewis would sack Levy, not based on his performance so far.

You don't get to be a multi-billionaire by panicking when times get tough.

The good businessman he is can see that Levy has a solid business model in place at the club and a solid team also, and it's merely a matter of seeing out the storm.

 

[Bill_Oddie]

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

The 'more than meets the eye' over the Jol situation ties in with what many of us have heard, but it doesn't quite answer all the many questions I think we all have over his departure, which is a shame. Not least because you know that people will still witter on here about Comolli being the one who forced Jol to use players he didn't want.

Anyway, that's by the by. Shareprice down = bad news all round. I wonder just how that could be arrested before the AGM though. Will Comolli leaving really have an effect on the share value? Not to mention on pitch performance?

 

[lazarus]

I doubt Comolli's departure would provide any kind of 'bounce' factor on the share price, why would it?

In fact, I think the stability of the DOF position is what makes the club an attractive opportunity investment-wise, both in terms of shares as well as loans etc.

Player wages and transfer values are one of the main volatile factors that make investing in football clubs unpalatable for most, except those with more money than sense and either an affection for a club or just want another luxury accesory to go with their yachts & islands.

 

[rsmith]

From the article...
"What has to be remembered is that people like Ashcroft are instrumental in getting our Stadium Project sorted out without our going into unsustainable debt – the Stadium Project only applies to being a PL Club."

Who is Ashcroft?

 

[Defsta]

From the article...
"What has to be remembered is that people like Ashcroft are instrumental in getting our Stadium Project sorted out without our going into unsustainable debt – the Stadium Project only applies to being a PL Club."

Who is Ashcroft?

Yeah, I was wondering that too... same Dan Ascroft who's posting on here?

 

[DC_Boy]

the bit I like is where 'major shareholders have told Levy that relegation is not an option'

they do realise that this football we're talking about - in my lifetime I've seen MU, Leeds & us relegated - i've seen pool in the 2nd div

relegation will occur to those teams that don''t have enough points at the end of the season in accordance with the rules in place at the time

it is quite funny at times when football and business mix -

of course the major shareholders may not have said this, certainly in the way it comes out in the piece -

however I can easily imagine something along these lines being said, as normal business procedure comes head to head with the 'looking glass world' of the premier league where normal business procedure goes out of the window and people happily lose hundreds of millions to see their team win - while the FA maintain the rules in a correct manner - but the playing field far from being level, is up down inside out and double somersaulting

 

[robin09]

I want to know, what was agreed that 'Jol went back on (twice)'?

 

[pablo73]

This article sums up the whole problem with the running of the club - no accountability. No wonder we are all so frustrated and arguing about who is to blame when the club hide behind this ' we are all to blame' bulls*it. There needs to be far more transparency about who is responsible for what. It is my suspicion that Levy likes to have a Director of football as it gives him a scapegoat when things go wrong. The club need to ditch Daniel Levy and Donna Cullen and the whole spin culture and run the club on clear lines so everyone knows who is responsible for what. No organisation can be a success without clear accountability.

 

[Maske2g]

What a one sited view of football finance.

in case you hadn't noticed, every other major stock in the world has lost an average 40% of its value as well.....

 

[GeneralBurk]

From the article...
"What has to be remembered is that people like Ashcroft are instrumental in getting our Stadium Project sorted out without our going into unsustainable debt – the Stadium Project only applies to being a PL Club."

Who is Ashcroft?

Michael Ashcroft.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/2297403/Michael-Ashcroft-raises-stake-in-Tottenham.html

 

[sidford]

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

The 'more than meets the eye' over the Jol situation ties in with what many of us have heard, but it doesn't quite answer all the many questions I think we all have over his departure, which is a shame. Not least because you know that people will still witter on here about Comolli being the one who forced Jol to use players he didn't want.

Anyway, that's by the by. Shareprice down = bad news all round. I wonder just how that could be arrested before the AGM though. Will Comolli leaving really have an effect on the share value? Not to mention on pitch performance?

can i ask what you mods have heard re jol sacking or is it goat material? do you know what agreement jol went back on?

 

[Bill_Oddie]

can i ask what you mods have heard re jol sacking or is it goat material? do you know what agreement jol went back on?

It's been posted before so I don't think there's any problem in repeating that we know a view (unquestionably a biased one, but nonetheless, I believe it to be true) that Martin Jol spoke with Newcastle about the manager's job there. This was way before we even thought about Ramos.

It sounds like Joe Lewis asked the board to have a contingency to Jol leaving (seeing as he was touting himself around) and Ramos was the most highly rated manager in Europe that was interested in the gig. Things obviously didn't go smoothly from there on but I would say it is a fair bet that Jol and Levy's relationship broke down to fault on both sides, and not just Levy's, whatever you might read/hear in the media.


Obviously not gospel, but that's pretty much all we know/all we've heard. :up:

 

[jamesc0le]

hah, if levy had any mud to throw at jol he would have thrown it, surely..

 

[Bill_Oddie]

hah, if levy had any mud to throw at jol he would have thrown it, surely..

To what end? Add to the negative publicity about Spurs? And who would he get to print his pov? They're barely on speaking terms with most of the papers.

Questions you could ask about Jol's sacking is why Jol has remained as quiet as he has about it? Surely, if the public perception of events were true he should be spewing?

Another good (unrelated) question, which I'll ask but definitely can't answer is why Del Nido has never taken action against us over Ramos' appointment.

 

[jamesc0le]

To what end? Add to the negative publicity about Spurs? And who would he get to print his pov? They're barely on speaking terms with most of the papers.

Questions you could ask about Jol's sacking is why Jol has remained as quiet as he has about it? Surely, if the public perception of events were true he should be spewing?

Another good (unrelated) question, which I'll ask but definitely can't answer is why Del Nido has never taken action against us over Ramos' appointment.

because levy threw money at all of them ? (had no mud) :shrug: