- Jun 25, 2011
- 2,963
- 3,854
I don't doubt that's true for a minute, but many other factors come into play too. For example, why are Liverpool always shorter odds than we are for the league/ top 4, despite it being plainly obvious that we are a vastly better team than them? Reason- because they have a huge (and massively deluded) fan-base who put money on them each year, irrespective of how bad they are. The bookies would lose a fortune if they ever won the league. Likewise England at major tournaments- always around 9/2, 4/1 to win the bloody thing when we haven't got a hope in hell in reality, but if we ever did, the bookies would go broke due to people going with their hearts rather than their heads. Not sure how this relates to the Bale odds if I'm honest(!) but it's definitely true!
But you can't really get inside info on who'll win the PL or the WC though. Inside info is one factor, but it doesn't decide odds by itself. It can however reflect the odds, but when and how much is difficult to see from the outside.