The Daily ITK Discussion Thread - 10th August

[olliec]

D1 on COYS:

Told v quiet we are struggling to move players out and Daniel does not want to spend what we do not receive first which makes me think the maddison , vdv buys was the kane money

told most likely is another center half over a forward , they like orban and are monitoring but no more than 50/50 chance of a deal , center half more likely

He never wants to spend! The only money he spent is what we made from Kane.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

A derisory fee is better than no fee at all. We have to at some point face the facts that we are going to be paying players that we can't even register to play very very soon. So what exactly is an "acceptable fee" for a player you can't use and yet are still paying a hefty wage, because It's certainly not the market rate.

If it were my business I'd be on the blower to his agent and letting the likes of Ndombele leave for nothing right now if he could find a club, because all he is is a drain on resources and we are never going to recoup any money on him. Every season that we keep him, and loan him out whilst subsidising his wages it costs us more and more.

TOTALLY AGREE

This is madness. We have got to get rid of them. It's surely going to cost more in the long run to keep them as is.

We're over a barrel. That's the reality. So we might as well get on with it, take the hit, and move on.

 

[spurslenny]

Feeling fairly relaxed about the outgoings.

Dont forget its Euro's year next year, and the players on the 'out' list would be wanting to get some game time you would think. Ange will have worked out his core squad, and I cant imagine he's the type of guy to compromise and suddenly start giving Dier (for example) a run of games.

Last minute outs is my bet.

 

[tototoner]

What was the plan if Bayern didn’t cough up for Kane then, because if we were able to buy what we have done so far with no incomings, then clearly there’s some money still

There's a plan?

 

[Trix]

Feeling fairly relaxed about the outgoings.

Dont forget its Euro's year next year, and the players on the 'out' list would be wanting to get some game time you would think. Ange will have worked out his core squad, and I cant imagine he's the type of guy to compromise and suddenly start giving Dier (for example) a run of games.

Last minute outs is my bet.

How many of those we want out have a realistic chance of making a Euro's squad?

 

[nedley]

Unfortunately the dross we are trying to get rid of is not a priority on many teams list so it's always going to be last week as they scramble. I know everyone thinks we're overvaluing but where's the evidence?

History my friend.

History.

 

[Sputic]

What was the plan if Bayern didn’t cough up for Kane then, because if we were able to buy what we have done so far with no incomings, then clearly there’s some money still

Exactly. If there is a need to sell first, it's not gonna be to raise transfer funds but to cut the squad down.

People need to remember that ITK is passed on in good faith but the original source isn't necessarily acting in good faith and may have an axe to grind/agenda to push.

Doesn't mean that Levy isn't f-ing up sales again but ITK needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

[mattspur1986]

D1 on COYS:

Told v quiet we are struggling to move players out and Daniel does not want to spend what we do not receive first which makes me think the maddison , vdv buys was the kane money

told most likely is another center half over a forward , they like orban and are monitoring but no more than 50/50 chance of a deal , center half more likely

I said this when Kane left, and am still convinced this is the case.

 

[goughie1966]

All these players we’re trying to offload. What bids have we received from clubs that 1, the player accepted to move to and 2, we rejected the bid? Just the Moscow one for Sanchez I presume that he rejected moving to? Have there been others?

 

[nedley]

So let me understand this correctly........

If we'd have bought VDV, Maddison, Soloman, Vicario, Phillips and Veliz AND completed the Kulu and Porro transfers AFTER Harry was sold, we'd be over the moon, but because some of this business was concluded BEFORE we sold Kane, it's been a shambolic transfer window.

Thanks for confirming that I can be angry about it because I was a little confused.

Don't add Kulu this window.

That's just silliness.

 

[Dakes]

Feeling fairly relaxed about the outgoings.

Dont forget its Euro's year next year, and the players on the 'out' list would be wanting to get some game time you would think. Ange will have worked out his core squad, and I cant imagine he's the type of guy to compromise and suddenly start giving Dier (for example) a run of games.

Last minute outs is my bet.

Tanguy has a better chance of making Eurovision than the Euros, same goes for all/most of the other deadwood.

 

[VoteMe4Prez]

Exactly. If there is a need to sell first, it's not gonna be to raise transfer funds but to cut the squad down.

People need to remember that ITK is passed on in good faith but the original source isn't necessarily acting in good faith and may have an axe to grind/agenda to push.

Doesn't mean that Levy isn't f-ing up sales again but ITK needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

This is the whole point. As much as I cannot stand DL, I cannot see how he would be dumb enough to risk it all on HK leaving for them, especially with all the ITK saying he preferred to keep him. Still, we need DL out as far as I'm concerned.

 

[olithfc]

How many of those we want out have a realistic chance of making a Euro's squad?

Can’t see Sanchez making the euro squad

 

[Mycroft Jones]

Can’t see Sanchez making the euro squad

He'd want to play enough football to make Colombia's Copa America 2024 squad though.

 

[lukadownthelane]

Here we go again…….

 

[Klinsmannesque]

From a business perspective (as I am sure that’s the perspective Levy is looking from), it makes no sense to keep these unwanted and not-to-be-registered players come September 1. These are assets that 1. will further decline in value because there are no catalysts to appreciate their value (since they are not registered) and 2. their wages only make their total cost without return heavier. Added to that, they seemingly obstruct an injection of more quality in his business (= value appreciation of the club as whole)

At one point, Levy will have to start cutting his losses on the deadwood.

I kind of disagree. It’s all about image and precedent imo. Levy has a reputation for a reason and he’ll believe that is more valuable in retaining even if it means players do run down their contracts.

Think of it like this - he takes cut price deals on a few players now, or terminates contracts then what about next summer if there are players we need to shift. Or the summer after.

I’m not saying I agree with it just trying to understand all sides of the situation

 

[Russ1201]

If this actually ends up happening I see things getting very ugly very quickly for Levy and he will have nowhere to hide.
How he himself can’t see his own incompetence is beyond me.

Things need to get so uncomfortable for him that he has no choice but to sell.

Sorry i disagree even though i wish they did. Without going to off topic Their is far too many Levy supporters who will stand by him still.

 

[Neon_Knight_]

Thanks for the info.

Every year we should have a good transfer budget of around £80-£120m to improve the squad (just look at what our rivals regularly spend).

This year we've also sold our talisman for £100m so should have around £180-£220m to spend.

We've spent around £105m (the Porro and Deki transfers don't count - see posts above).

So where has the rest of the money gone?

Appreciate the ITK and it's not wildly unexpected. But it doesn't make it any less unacceptable.

The ITK clearly suggests that we have every intention of spending more (the new CB / CF / RW would surely each cost more than any of the outgoing deadwood they replace).

If you include the Porro & Kulusevski fees as prior spend, rather than summer 2023 spend, that would mean we massively overspent in 2022-23 compared to your £80-120m annual net spend. We spent your suggested ballpark during the summer 2022, then delayed the Porro & Kulu payments until summer 2023, to manage our annual budgeting / cashflow.
It really is semantics which season you choose to consider those signings belonging in, as the club has spent the same amount of money either way. Either we overspent last year and now have less to spend this year, or we spent within our means last year and are spending within our means again this year.
I completely agree with all of the comments that counting Porro & Kulu as new signings this summer is farcical. However, it's also farcical to not factor the spend into either accounting period.

£80-120m per year over two years comes to £160-240m. Over the past two seasons (using Transfermarkt figures converted to £), we've spent £316.5m and recouped £128.07m, which is a net spend of £188.43m, irrespective of which year you include Porro & Kulu in. £188.43m is within the £160-240m that you've suggested we should spend (or £94.215m per year, which is within £80-120m).
You are suggesting that we should have £75-115m left to spend (£180-240m minus the £105m spent), yet that would take our net spend over the previous two years to £263.43-303.43m. The lower end of what you estimate we should have available to spend would take us over 10% beyond the top end of what you have suggested we can afford annually.
What we actually "should" have available, according to your suggested net spend, is a maximum of £51.57m, not a minimum of £75m and maximum of £115m.

What we are very much in agreement on is that there should be some funds available to improve the squad during this window, without being entirely reliant on revenue from player sales. The wage budget and physical numbers of players at the club (more than we can register) is likely to be far more of an issue than cashflow for new signings, so my assumption is that this is what the ITK is referring to in terms of new signings being dependent upon outgoings.

Overall, I consider the latest ITK to be positive, not negative. The club appears to be actively trying to sign players in the areas that we most need...and also actively trying to offload the surplus players.

 

[spanners]

What was the plan if Bayern didn’t cough up for Kane then, because if we were able to buy what we have done so far with no incomings, then clearly there’s some money still

Spot on.

 

[SpartanSpur]

Whilst I get what they are saying about needing to get some out first, certain targets like Gift Orban wouldn't even need to be registered this season so shouldn't be tied to this.

Unless the plan is to use Eric Dier as an emergency ST in an injury crisis.

You'd like to think selling our best player and highest earner would add some lubrication to the window at least.

Seriously concerned Levy is going to take advantage of Ange's coaching ability to tighten the purse strings.