The Race for the Title, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or even 6th Thread.

[Cochise]

Up to second if we win tomorrow, albeit for a few hours.
seems odd because it feels the start of the season hasn’t been amazing for us

Had we not drawn to Newcastle, we'd be more upbeat. It's results like that that keep the doubt at the periphery of our minds.

 

[Timberwolf]

I look at the money Chelsea spent and think they are trying for a fantasy team, but no real idea.

Then united look a rabble.

My last point on those 2 clubs are their managers. Compare them to Jose.

They both look less than the sum of their parts but I think both are very capable of going on a winning run and steamrolling a bunch of bottom half teams.

Chelsea look weak mentally and defensively fragile, but once they get that front line settled they will simply outscore a lot of teams. Frank's not a great manager but there's so much talent in that squad and we'd be foolish to write them off - I think they'll be a serious threat this season and should be good for around 70-75 points.

Utd are a total mess right now but once they settle they are also capable of going on winning runs. For all his faults, Ole does seem to be good at riding waves of momentum and they have a knack of winning games undeservedly - at the end of last season they went 14 games unbeaten which is no joke. They are, however, also capable of playing fucking abysmally for periods too so if they keep Ole I suspect they'll do similarly to last season and get around 66 points. The main fear around United is that they sack Ole and bring in a proper manager, but if that happens hopefully it's due to them fucking up badly in the first place.

Of the 3, we look like the one who have improved the most as a team. Not only have we massively strengthened our first 11 and squad, but there seems to be a renewed energy, ruthlessness and tactical awareness. Now we need to get back into the habit of winning consistently and grinding out results as we haven't really done that since the first half of the 2018-19 season in which we won 20/26 (often while playing awfully). It's no good tonking United and So'ton if we go and draw to West Ham and Brighton, so these next 4 games will really give us a better idea of what we're capable of this season.

Are we going to truly challenge or will it be another season of peaks and troughs?

 

[Chirpystheman]

This is totally and utterly incorrect.

Big bets can move markets in certain events but not on something like Premier League football. The odds are rock solid and barely fluctuate according to the bets placed. They are 99% based on a huge array of statistical information. You have to bear in mind that hundreds of millions are bet on these markets.

The only time big bets can move the odds on markets is if the bookmakers suspect people have inside information. This is pretty much impossible to make a difference on PL football season bets.

Not trying to preach here, but just wanted to pick up on this as I work very closely to the sports betting industry.

Having been a betting shop manager you are correct to a point. However bookies also want to limit their liability/exposure. While the transfer window is open for example they would react to any sizable bets being placed on a team as they might think people have the inside track on them signing players etc. Also if they suddenly took large sums on a team to win the league they would shorten the price regardless if any football being played at the time as they don't want to be on the hook for fortune's. But we are talking reasonable chunks of money. Not a couple hundred quid.

 

[freeeki]

From 19/1 this morning to 11/1 now... gutted I didn’t put money on us winning the league sooner.

I genuinely think we’re going to do it.

 

[Cochise]

From 19/1 this morning to 11/1 now... gutted I didn’t put money on us winning the league sooner.

I genuinely think we’re going to do it.

A real Spurs fan would wait for tomorrows inevitable fuck up before throwing money at us.

 

[Timberwolf]

From 19/1 this morning to 11/1 now... gutted I didn’t put money on us winning the league sooner.

I genuinely think we’re going to do it.

I think we'll need luck with injuries. We have a deep squad, but the drop off from certain players is quite big, especially Reguilon, Hojbjerg, Son and probably Kane (unless Vini turns out to be amazing).

We'll also need to really up our game defensively. Sanchez/Toby/Dier/Tanganga doesn't look like a league winning set of CBs to me and, while none of them are bad players, none of them fill me with confidence either. Weirdly I think Rodon might be a crucial. I'm not going to expect too much as he's young and untested, but given we're desperately lacking a top quality CB, if he actually steps up, having a ball playing 6'4" CB could be a huge asset and potentially change our season.

 

[yankspurs]

From 19/1 this morning to 11/1 now... gutted I didn’t put money on us winning the league sooner.

I genuinely think we’re going to do it.

+1200 here. Was +2100 after united (in fractional, divide by 100)

 

[Bulletspur]

think we'll need luck with injuries. We have a deep squad, but the drop off from certain players is quite big, especially Reguilon, Hojbjerg, Son and probably Kane (unless Vini turns out to be amazing).

I disagree. You underestimate the strength and depth of our squad

 

[Cochise]

I mean Liverpool did get very lucky last year with probably only Gomez being out with a long term injury. The rest of their starting XI was fit nearly all season aside from Allison for a few games.

 

[hellava_tough]

I think we'll need luck with injuries. We have a deep squad, but the drop off from certain players is quite big, especially Reguilon, Hojbjerg, Son and probably Kane (unless Vini turns out to be amazing).

We'll also need to really up our game defensively. Sanchez/Toby/Dier/Tanganga doesn't look like a league winning set of CBs to me and, while none of them are bad players, none of them fill me with confidence either. Weirdly I think Rodon might be a crucial. I'm not going to expect too much as he's young and untested, but given we're desperately lacking a top quality CB, if he actually steps up, having a ball playing 6'4" CB could be a huge asset and potentially change our season.

I agree that we could do with one more CB; a world class one, at that.

But looking at our 4 CBs, I don't think any other team in the league has a group of defenders who are any better.

Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal? No.

City and Liverpool have good first team options, but their 3rd and 4th choices aren't that great.

So it's certainly an area we can improve on in the future, but currently I think we'll be fine.

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

I agree that we could do with one more CB; a world class one, at that.

But looking at our 4 CBs, I don't think any other team in the league has a group of defenders who are any better.

Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal? No.

City and Liverpool have good first team options, but their 3rd and 4th choices aren't that great.

So it's certainly an area we can improve on in the future, but currently I think we'll be fine.

The talk about odds made me check the spreads just now. Sporting Index have us finishing 4th. You can buy our final points at 67, which feels like good value to me.
You can sell Citeh at 83.5 for the season. Just done that at £50 per point.

 

[sparx100]

A real Spurs fan would wait for tomorrows inevitable fuck up before throwing money at us.

Agreed! If anyone can disappoint it is Spurs.

 

[Timberwolf]

I disagree. You underestimate the strength and depth of our squad

Well it's kinda weird cos I think we actually do have the deepest squad in the league. If everyone is fit I actually think our bench is stronger than even City, Chelsea and Liverpool's.

The thing is, unless you are a true monster of a team like peak City under Pep or Fergie's Utd, most teams need a bit of luck with injuries to win the league. Leicester and Chelea under Conte were both exceptionally lucky with injuries when they won the league - both teams essentially played the same first 11 for the majority of the season. Leicester had about 7/8 players with 33+ league starts that year and about 10 with 30+. That's absurd. In comparison we only had 3 players who made more than 30 league starts the same season. You take Vardy, Costa, Kante or Mahrez, out of either of those teams for 6 months and do they win? Perhaps not.

We have a great squad, but like most teams we have some very important key players that we rely on. Even with able deputies if you take out Kane, Son, Hojbjerg and/or Reguilon we just aren't the same team. This is a competitive league and if we want to win it we will definitely need a bit of luck along the way.

 

[Timberwolf]

I agree that we could do with one more CB; a world class one, at that.

But looking at our 4 CBs, I don't think any other team in the league has a group of defenders who are any better.

Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal? No.

City and Liverpool have good first team options, but their 3rd and 4th choices aren't that great.

So it's certainly an area we can improve on in the future, but currently I think we'll be fine.

Fair point - it's kind of amazing how so few top quality CBs there are in the big 6 atm.

However, VVD was a HUGE part of Liverpool's recent success and arguably their most important player. On an individual level he's far better than anyone we have. I think City have actually got away with having slightly weaker CB options than most due to the absolute control of the ball they have most games (although they seem to be paying the price for this more and more). Either way they still had Kompany, Laporte, etc when they won the league who are better than our current options.

Given our deeper, more counter attacking system and the fact that we aren't as good a team as Liverpool or peak City, I think we really need better first choice CBs if we want to challenge. The depth is actually OK - it's more the fact that our first choice pairing isn't top quality, hence I'm hoping Rodon will make a big step up.

This is also why Skriniar would've been such a massive signing - it's the last piece in the puzzle.

 

[Mr Pink]

VVD is Liverpool's most important player. If he's out for the season I'd put money on us to finish above them.

 

[Lawrence]

Voted for 4th. I think Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea will be top 3. They are just having a blip. Their firepower will overcome their defensive frailties.

Strangely, I think 4th will be between Everton, us and Arsenal.

As much as we say our defence will be the cause of our inability to win the title, I actually think it's our mental belief. I hope Bale can bring us that. Then if we beat all the bus parkers, I will say we are good even for 2nd.

But it's early days yet. We are still riding the euphoria of the 6-1 thrashing.

 

[Cochise]

Chelsea are a strange one as their back line looks beatable. The same can be said for every team in the so called "big 6" tbh, including us.

 

[ItsBoris]

VVD is Liverpool's most important player. If he's out for the season I'd put money on us to finish above them.

Yeah, hate to say it but it may be the event that gives us a chance to win the league. I can't see Liverpool defending the title without VVD

 

[spids]

Everton, Newcastle and West Ham at home. Dropped points. Will cost us big time at the business end of the season. WTF did we stop trying after 30 mins? Joke tactics 2nd half. Clearly Jose does not realise if you defend your penalty area it is a recipe for disaster and just invites poor teams to have a go. Exactly the same lesson not learnt against Newcastle. Fkin joke.

 

[Shadydan]

Everton, Newcastle and West Ham at home. Dropped points. Will cost us big time at the business end of the season. WTF did we stop trying after 30 mins? Joke tactics 2nd half. Clearly Jose does not realise if you defend your penalty area it is a recipe for disaster and just invites poor teams to have a go. Exactly the same lesson not learnt against Newcastle. Fkin joke.

I don't think it was tactics, we lost because Ndombele went off and that gave up the midfield hence dropping deeper when we had the ball, on another day Lo Celso would have played with or instead of him.