Post your poker bad beats here.

Discussion in 'Betting and Gambling' started by harrowspurs, Dec 2, 2010.

  1. Legend10

    Legend10 Well-Known Member

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    Just use Soccer Mystic!
     
  2. Legend10

    Legend10 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry but that isn't trading, it's betting!

    That's simply doing what Betfair are promoting on their adverts and cashing out in play.

    It's not rocket science that but they could easily have all gone the same way as the Arsenal bet, and a quick question if you think it's trading why didn't you trade Arse out after 5 minutes when their odds would probably have halved. Also you lost 95% on Arsenal so you didn't trade it out and accept your loss until villa scored their 3rd, once again that's betting not trading.

    Also a professional gambler or trader would never risk 5% of their bank roll on one event, it's far too much! 2% would be top whack and even that's too much, 1% is the optimum.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. Mr.Writer

    Mr.Writer Member

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    What odds did you get for your selections? All these were arguably good picks (price dependent of course) apart from Odd Grenland (I assume you backed them), judging by the big pre-match steams on them...yes, even Arsenal! There's no need to trade out on Betfair...take the value and move on!

    Also, 5% of your bankroll is a lot to put on. You have to accept you will go on a losing run, and if you're betting 5%, your bankroll can dwindle sharpish before you know it!
     
  4. Legend10

    Legend10 Well-Known Member

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    At 5% gone before you know it, way too much, no pro would do this.
     
  5. OmarsComing

    OmarsComing Mentally Disturbed Individual!

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    There is nothing wrong with risking 5% of your BR each time just as long as you adjust when you go on a downswing
     
  6. Legend10

    Legend10 Well-Known Member

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    Well there was 6 bets made there, so 30% of his BR put at risk. He lost 91% of hs bet on Arsenal and te others could have gone the other way and quite often will losing 27% of the BR in one go, sorry but it's too much. Plus it doesn't at any point take into account of the success probability of the bet against the price and seeing as value is the most important component for a professional gambler this can't be right, if you find great value you should be betting more and not a set percentage.

    At te same time bankroll management is absolutely key and has to effectively manage risk.

    Would you want to spend 5% of your bankroll on a 1/2 fav as a 5/1 outsider, if the answer is yes then you really shouldn't (not you personally) be gambling as you have no appreciation of value.
     
  7. Spursking

    Spursking Well-Known Member

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    The 91% loss showing above is only 91% of the 5% stake, to get that straight.

    Here are the results for today:
    Today our Team made just 4 Games, with a final profit of + 143 %.
    This was the results of the day:
    Nieciecza 0 Lech Poznan 4 70,30%
    Belenenses 0 Rio Ave 3 -70,90%
    Lorient 2 Nantes 1 63,10%
    HJK Helsinkia 4 Honka 2 80,50%
     
  8. Legend10

    Legend10 Well-Known Member

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    I understand that SK, you do know what you're doing is gambling and not trading?

    Of course you can make money from gambling as well.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  9. Legend10

    Legend10 Well-Known Member

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    SK if you want to gamble effectively then you have to do the 2 most important things;

    Maximise value where you ind it
    Effectively managing your bankroll against risk

    To do this you need an effective and professional staking plan, take a look at the Kelly Criteria or Kelly Method,this could help you a lot.
     
  10. Spursking

    Spursking Well-Known Member

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    First of all. This is trading, because you take small profits all the time. You take a position in the market, and hedge for profit when that team score. You don't let it run further - you stick with that lower profit all the time. The goal is not to get a 100% profit in each and every position, but to get a nice green overall.

    It is bankroll management by placing 5% of your bankroll on each trade. This is a simple staking system which protects your bankroll, and it works.
     
    • Disagree Disagree x 2
  11. Mr.Writer

    Mr.Writer Member

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    What if the other team scores first?
     
  12. Spursking

    Spursking Well-Known Member

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    Then you either take the loss, or act according to your system. Sometimes you continue the trade with 5% lay on the team that took the lead (All based on statistics and feeling for the match in-play).
    Each trade only 5%, so we are taking care of the risk.
     
  13. Legend10

    Legend10 Well-Known Member

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    Why do you think this is trading, because you are taking profit in play if you happen to get the first goal? That's not trading, it's pure and simple gambling, you are gambling on your pick scoring first and then selling your bet for a reduced profit.

    Why didn't you sell Arsenal when they scored first against Villa?

    Where in your system do you ate advantage of finding increased value?

    Do you put the same 5% on a 1/2 as you would a 5/1? If so why?

    If you downsize your bet accordingly to stay at 5% it would still only take circa 30 odd losses to be bust, do you realise that!

    You can't do this type of thing successfully without a proper staking pan to max profits and min losses, 5% of BR isn't a staking plan, over the long run its a sure fire method of going bust or as good as.
     
  14. Spursking

    Spursking Well-Known Member

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    This is not my system, it is a system I follow. They are professional Betfair traders.
     
  15. Legend10

    Legend10 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry to say it SK but they aren't professionals with that approach. I have been raised around gambling, poker and all sorts of activities in ths sector, I have always had professional gamblers in my family and close family friends. And here is one thing I Can tell you for certain, winning gamblers don't tell or sell their methods or picks as to do so would affect their own value. All of these things advertised are rubbish and they use subscriptions either as an easy way to make an income or to fund their own gambling so they are on a winner regardless.

    Not being funny but I could have picked all of the games your pro's have and thrown in a couple of obscure overseas ones to make it look good.

    Their method has no BR protection and has no value formula the 2 key areas of professional gambling. If a team is even money but you think they have a 70% chance of winning, there is value and you should increase your stake accordingly. If a team is even money and you think they have a 40% chance of winning then you should either not bet or decrease your stake accordingly, to just place 5% of your BR on each regardless is frankly rubbish and amateur as is increasing or decreasing your stake amount as your BR rises o falls.

    It's hard to admit but if you are subscribing then these people are a scam. I could actually give you a better method than they are using, one that would maximise your profits and minimalise your losses.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  16. GlennHuddlestone

    GlennHuddlestone Active Member

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    Sorry subscribing? SK are you paying people to follow this method?
     
  17. Spursking

    Spursking Well-Known Member

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    I have a deal with them, so I receive the service for free. I am not following all their tips, but I am checking it out, and if I had been following each and every trade they do, last year, it would have been a good green result, I can tell you.

    I am more into pre-event trading myself. (I want to trade and make a profit before an event starts).

    This is an example of today's trades I did:
    Football: €16.18 Total P&L: €16.18

    Football
    Market Profit/loss (€)
    Football / General Diaz v Cerro Porteno : 4.64
    Football / Wigan v Doncaster : 3.17
    Football / Lyon v Sociedad : 8.37
     
  18. Spursking

    Spursking Well-Known Member

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    More examples of the trading they do:

    Today we made a profit of + 481 %, 6 Tips, 6 greens.
    This was the results of the day:
    Jef Utd 2 Thespakusatsu 2 66,90%
    Tampines Rovers 3 Albirex Niigata 3 39,90%
    Rosenborg 2 Valerenga 1 68,80%
    Ludogorets 2 FC Basel 4 142,50%
    Chelsea 2 Aston Villa 1 67,90%
    Atl.Madrid 1 Barcelona 1 95,00%
     
  19. Legend10

    Legend10 Well-Known Member

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    They aren't trades thy are bets, completely different but you don't seem o be able to grasp this SK.
     
  20. Spursking

    Spursking Well-Known Member

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    Like I said before, this is trading, as you are not placing a bet an let it run until the end. You always monitor the game, and have an exit or profit point planned. That is why this is trading.
     

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