- Apr 1, 2005
- 41,363
- 74,893
As per odds though, we have 1 in 2 chance to finish outside Top 6 (even money), 1 in 4 to finish 5th or 6th, and 1 in 4 to finish Top 4 (actually slightly less than 1 in 4 as can get 7/2).
So comparing voting to realism (which is roughly what current odds would show)
We should have 25% chance of finishing Top 4, but a whopping 59% have voted that way so far
We should have 25% chance of finishing 5th or 6th, but 34% have gone for that option
We should have 50% chance of finishing below 6th, but only 7% went that way.
I don't think it is most erring on the negative side at all, I think most are way too optimistic with Spurs blinkers on, as you can see from those numbers.
Odds have nothing to do with reality and everything about maximising profit for the bookmaker. If i put a £million on spurs winning the league tomorrow those odds would change dramatically.
They will think what odds are tempting enough for people to make a bet, how many will bet. If they win will their loses be offset by another team missing out...