Match Threads Spurs vs Man City - Match Thread - Day 9

[Mark_147]

No, but that is not my point.

I said Southampton were an upper table team. The point is simple. We have played less of the top 6/7 than our rivals, so we will only know how well we are placed after we play them. Namely the next few weeks. That is it. Nothing that you said is in any way a response to what I was saying.

Ok so not gonna go through all teams results, but will focus on the top 2 at the moment.

Chelsea v Palace 4-0
Chelsea v Liverpool 0-2
Chelsea v Brighton 3-1
Chelsea v west brom 3-3
Chelsea v Southampton 3-3
Chelsea v man utd 0-0
Chelsea v Burnley 3-0
Chelsea v Sheffield United 4-1
Chelsea v Newcastle 2-0

Based on those teams they have played and results I'm not sure how you can say we've had an easier start than them.

 

[C0YS]

Football is played on grass mate not on paper, you're unnecessarily over analysing things. You can't say for sure what games are easier than others because you're ignoring too many factors. Aston Villa was meant to be an easier game than Chelsea was for Liverpool for example.

So no the table doesn't lie, teams being in a false position is just nonsense hence why league positions gets decided by points and not potential.

I mean. I'm only analysing things because it turns out making a very basic point, that we haven't played as much of our rivals as other teams appears a harder point to make then I imagined.

OK the table may not lie, but early table positions are not very good at lining up with positions come the end of the season. Again, if we are say, in 8th after going unbeaten in this tough 5 game run. Would this mean Mourinho is doing terribly and will everyone's optimism go tits up. Because if we are 8th and within 5 points from top, we wouldn't be in a bad position.

Teams might not be in a 'false' position, on the basis of games played, but based on how people reacted to this result, it is quite clear not all games are the same, and not all teams even. You can go and look at algorithms of predicted table positions (most have us finishing 4th btw), they exist, but this really isn't my point. My point is that the sample of games we had is not reflective of the league as a whole. If we only played top 6 teams, and we beat every one of them. We could also fail to beat teams less open and find big difficulty there. But we have very unusual schedule this year.

Aston Villa is an easier game than Liverpool and Chelsea, and a few good games at the start doesn't change that. Aston Villa are dropping fast. If anything that is evidence that early season tables don't reflect quality, and Aston Villa are seemingly now falling to the mean. They do seem to do well against bigger teams, playing on the counter but they are unlikely to be direct rivals.

I guess I could go on very deep analysis, looking at every team, form and record big 6 and work out who really are the most dangerous opponents, but my point is much simpler until we play more of the top 6 we can't really say that we are in contention for the title. We can't. And as Mourinho mentioned in his press conference, two bad results in this league and you're midtable. That is surely more likely to happen after playing Chelsea, Arsenal, Palace, Leicester and Liverpool, more than Burnley, Brighton and West Brom (who on current form, assuming that the table doesn't lie, are part of the worst ever bottom 5 teams in PL history, with 2 teams set to beat Derby county's record, and another in the running).

Maybe a 'false' position is too strong, but it isn't a position to get carried away over, because we have a lot of tough games coming up.

 

[C0YS]

You're not taking into account that certain teams styles suit playing the so called top 6, you're presuming that everybody will have the same results vs the perceived hierarchy of the league. However when you look at Ours results this season, Leicester and Wolves over recent seasons you can say that that logic is flawed.

No not at all. Ok I'm counting Leicester in the top 7, I'm discounting Wolves because I don't think they are very good this season. But I'm not trying to generate a super-accurate model of where each team should be based on who they've played, and as people have mentioned, there is too much randomness and different people in form to do that accurately anyway.

I'm not making a broad point, I could look at every team, I don't think I need to because my point isn't that big. The point is a small one. The top 7 are likely to be our direct rivals we haven't played that many of them. We need to do well against them to remain top. Therefore, I feel this position isn't entirely reflective of how we might look like come Christmas.

My second point is early tables are rubbish at giving table positions that are likely to be how the table finishes, and moving positions early in the season is super volatile. For example, Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City aren't doing well, but their positions aren't that concerning.

 

[Mr Pink]

Wish there was a yawn rating lol

 

[davidmatzdorf]

Never seen Indian Jones... But that was funny... Didn't realise it was a comedy...

Ford improvised that. The director kept it.

 

[tony0379]

 

[rez9000]

Ford improvised that. The director kept it.

And the reason he looked so shattered is that he'd eaten something bad and was suffering really terrible diarrhoea.

EDIT: It seems he may even have contracted dysentery.

 

[Up From Dover]

Nothing more to say except that defeat to Everton on the opening day of the season seems a long long time ago now.

 

[rupsmith]

Well, it does, in fact, it lies all the time. At the end of the season. Yeah it doesn't. There is a reason that it used to be a thing that you only look at the table after 10 games. Chelsea haven't had a particularly tough run, but have faced 3 top 6/7 teams. I accept that the top 6 may no longer exist this season, They've also faced Southampton, but I don't think that's a big deal.

Man utd have faced 3
Liverpool have faced 3 (soon to be 4)
Man city have faced 4
Arsenal have faced 4
Leicester have faced 2 (as is probably reflected in their position, though soon to be 3)

These are likely to be our direct rivals unless something very extreme changes.

We've faced 2, before today, we'd played only one . That is low, and we are now going on an incredibly difficult run, where we essentially play all of them in a row. Now, let's talk about the table. If we get out of this run, with a 2 points per game average, we are in an extremely good position to challenge for the title. Even if we end up temporarily in 3rd or 4th position after this run. After this run, the table will, again be lying, as we would have gone through the traditionally 'big' games and we should be able to pick up more points in the run that follows.

Even in the form table, you would see that we have played 4 games of top 10 teams in form and 5 games of teams in the bottom half. Arsenal have had an incredibly tough run, so have Man city, and they rise up the table very quickly, unless something has gone wrong. The table is not particularly unusual for this time of the year.

In match week 9 last season

1. Liverpool.
Unusual Positions: 6th Palace. 14th Man utd

18/19

1. Man City
Unusual Positions: Man Utd 10th, Bournmouth 6th

17/18

1.Man City
Unusual Positions: Watford 6th Liverpool 9th

Now. The good thing is that the top after 9 matches has won the league. But none were close leagues, or particularly competitive. Many had a situation where the top 6 was really locked in and you had a two-tier league. The last two seasons, as tv money has made every PL team able to buy top class players from abroad and the league has got tighter. This season it looks even tighter than before. Where you have an incredibly poor bottom three but apart from that, it's all very tight. And you do have a number of teams underachieving, but not by much (Arsenal and Man city are 3 points from top 6 and Man utd at 2 points)

The league early in the season is particularly tight. Just look at us. 2 points a game is generally considered what you need to finish in the top 4 (normally it will lead to 3rd position). Chelsea, temporarily in second have that number. We have 20 points in 9 games. Only 2 points more. To win the league you need about 85 points. Normally a bit higher. The last three seasons have had unusually high league-leading numbers, but normally 85-90. We are set for 84 or 85 points with our current total. Which is title contention. So at the end of the season, if we maintain the same sort of point scoring. We would be 8 or 9 points above Chelsea. That's a decent gap. Currently, all that it would take is for Chelsea to beat us, or Chelsea to win and us to draw.

So, early season is very volatile and subject to very small things. One result has a major impact in league position and points per game totals. So, the league needs a certain number of games, it needs it to be able to settle, so one unusual result doesn't dramatically alter league position (as mentioned before the difference between 12th and 6th is 3 points). You also need more games so you have a fairly equal number of different kinds of games played. As the season moves on, it does more become about the next match etc, but early on everything is not settled, it's just generally much more likely to have unusual things happen because it only takes one random result to change things.

The thing is we have been victims to odd results that are not reflective of how we've actually played. We should be comfortably top right now. But we should have been comfortably top with only playing one of who are likely to be our main rivals. We also have a very unusual schedule this year. I don't ever remember having so many tough games lined up after each other, and the thing is, we could play perfectly well and still end up with very few points out of those games and if that were to happen (though this result does change things) we could easily be midtable. I don't think we will, but we conceivably could, without any of those results being particularly strange or unexpected.

We have started the season amazingly well, and we have every possibility to go through these 5 games and be in a dominant position, but before we play those five games, I'm not getting carried away. If we get 8 points out of those 5, I think we are set for a good season. If we get 10 points out of those 5, and no one runs away with it, I think we have title chances. If we get more than that. We are in a very strong position.

There can be multiple bases of analysis which can be used as an valid, informed justification of a line of thought or argument.

But sometimes in life - some people say “always in life“ based on religion/philosophy/mindset - it’s about the moment, the “now” , to breathe in, watch that brilliant technical and tactical performance against a top side in Europe, look at that 2-0 scoreline, look at that league table, breathe out, let it sink in, smile in absolute pleasure, pump your fists, go down on your knees and absolutely scream out “fcking come on you Spurs!!!!”.

 

[rez9000]

Ha! Just found out we've scored more goals in the first half of games this season than Shitty have scored altogether!

 

[Frozen_Waffles]

Never seen Indian Jones... But that was funny... Didn't realise it was a comedy...

Da fuck?

There should be a list of films for all kids to see, like required reading in school. Just replace all the hours they prattle on about Shakespeare with reruns of 80's Harrison ford films would be a good start.

 

[dickieven]

I remember. Sadly.

Yep me too. Was at Highbury when we came from 1-0 down to win 2-1. Also that season was at Anfield when we won for the first time for God knows how long. Also unfortunately was at the 2-1 home defeat to Everton. That was a painful defeat.

 

[Serpico]

Momentum and confidence is key (as we all know) with this , we are defiantly good enough to challenge for the title. Yesterday, going top was a massive confident boost as normally we would have crumbled under the thought of it. Its to early to see the momentum that LC had but a few more games may tell.

 

[Serpico]

2-1 home defeat to Everton.

Plenty of nerves, error at the back and poor atmosphere was key to defeat that evening (if I remember right). Lets hope we have moved on if presented with the same opportunity.

 

[Shadydan]

I mean. I'm only analysing things because it turns out making a very basic point, that we haven't played as much of our rivals as other teams appears a harder point to make then I imagined.

OK the table may not lie, but early table positions are not very good at lining up with positions come the end of the season. Again, if we are say, in 8th after going unbeaten in this tough 5 game run. Would this mean Mourinho is doing terribly and will everyone's optimism go tits up. Because if we are 8th and within 5 points from top, we wouldn't be in a bad position.

Teams might not be in a 'false' position, on the basis of games played, but based on how people reacted to this result, it is quite clear not all games are the same, and not all teams even. You can go and look at algorithms of predicted table positions (most have us finishing 4th btw), they exist, but this really isn't my point. My point is that the sample of games we had is not reflective of the league as a whole. If we only played top 6 teams, and we beat every one of them. We could also fail to beat teams less open and find big difficulty there. But we have very unusual schedule this year.

Aston Villa is an easier game than Liverpool and Chelsea, and a few good games at the start doesn't change that. Aston Villa are dropping fast. If anything that is evidence that early season tables don't reflect quality, and Aston Villa are seemingly now falling to the mean. They do seem to do well against bigger teams, playing on the counter but they are unlikely to be direct rivals.

I guess I could go on very deep analysis, looking at every team, form and record big 6 and work out who really are the most dangerous opponents, but my point is much simpler until we play more of the top 6 we can't really say that we are in contention for the title. We can't. And as Mourinho mentioned in his press conference, two bad results in this league and you're midtable. That is surely more likely to happen after playing Chelsea, Arsenal, Palace, Leicester and Liverpool, more than Burnley, Brighton and West Brom (who on current form, assuming that the table doesn't lie, are part of the worst ever bottom 5 teams in PL history, with 2 teams set to beat Derby county's record, and another in the running).

Maybe a 'false' position is too strong, but it isn't a position to get carried away over, because we have a lot of tough games coming up.

You might as well not analyse the league table until week 38 then in that case.

IMO Your post epitomises what football has become these days, over analysed, stat driven, hypothetical scenarios, its boring.

Come on we're contenders for now because we are top of the league, can't believe I'm saying this but just bloody enjoy it. ?

 

[spursfan77]

The thing with City's defense is bizarre. Remember when Mendy was a big deal for about 10 minutes before he got injured and has been shit since.....John Stones, the great English hope of non hoofball defense...and there as that bloke who they signed for tonnes from Porto who played well in his debut against Chelsea and was last seen on loan to Valencia.

Ahh well, fuck 'em.

I agree. When our defence over the years has looked bad it’s when we’ve had no decent defensive midfielder in the side. Yet they have Fernandinho. Obviously he was missing yesterday, but with him in the team they must produce more good defensive performances. I’d like to see their defensive record with him in the team playing DM and without him. Either it is because of that or they aren’t being coached defensively enough.

I do find their transfer strategy utterly bewildering for a club with a bottomless pit of cash. In the summer they got the centre back they needed but they also needed a striker and DM and didn’t even bother looking for one. I find them not going for someone like Jimenez at Wolves strange. He’d be perfect in their team.

 

[GutBucket]

Couple of mistakes aside, our FBs were amazing in this match. Also Hojbjerg, who leads the league in number of touches, passes and is 3rd in tackles, and Sissoko helped them out. Bergwijn and Ndombele had some nice exchanges and tried to open themselves to receive a pass but it's not easy against their pressing.

 

[Jamturk]

Tanguy is getting fitter and fitter

 

[guiltyparty]

Jose needs (like most coaches) everyone to buy into the methods and pull in the same direction. He needs the board above him to listen and not go against his requests and he needs players to make sacrifices.

When he gets those components he can do his job extremely well, as soon as parts start to fall apart he loses patience and becomes evidently frustrated because he knows it's the key to success.

TBH this is pretty much the case of any management in any job, not just football. Give the person the tools they need and the commitment they desire, and if they’re a good manager they’ll get results. But don’t do either and even the best manager in the world won’t succeed

I’ve had periods in my own career that I felt like I was kicking tyres and others where I was flying, and it’s usually down to those two factors

 

[JimmyG2]

Da fuck?

There should be a list of films for all kids to see, like required reading in school. Just replace all the hours they prattle on about Shakespeare with reruns of 80's Harrison ford films would be a good start.

Shakespeare has been referenced and quoted for over 500 years.
Harrison Ford for under 50.
Let's come back here in 450 years time and see who is still relevant.

“The empty vessel makes the loudest sound.”
Ain't that the Truth