What's new

Thomas Lemar

S

sly1

Well-Known Member
Sep 25, 2004
451
1,270
guiltyparty said:
- Sky Sports runs speculative transfer news suggesting a player is going to a certain club
- Sky Bet offers attractive odds to scoop up interest, linked to directly from story
- Sky Sports tweets odds next to story, as if coincidence & not both produced by same company
- Punters take up bet in volume, pushing odds down
- Sky Sports shift focus of player move to different club, seeing previous odds drift
- Repeat
Click to expand...

I'm not an expert by any means, but this doesn't seem very logical to me. This would mean that SkyBet is constantly pushing punters to bet on the underpriced option.

For example:

- Sky Bet offers attractive odds to scoop up interest

SkyBet offers 3-1 on Lemar going to Spurs.

- Sky Sports tweets odds next to story, as if coincidence & not both produced by same company
- Punters take up bet in volume, pushing odds down

Many punters take up 3-1 for Lemar to go to Spurs. Subsequently, the odds of Lemar to Spurs fall to 1-4, and the odds of Lemar remaining at Monaco go to 3-1.

- Sky Sports shift focus of player move to different club, seeing previous odds drift

Many punters then take up Lemar staying at Monaco at 3-1.

You're then left with a position where a whole load of people are winning at 3-1 no matter what happens.

(Obviously this is a rough and fairly extreme example. Perhaps it does work out more beneficially for SkyBet if there isn't such a big swing in odds)
 
Last edited:
guiltyparty

guiltyparty

Well-Known Member
Sep 21, 2005
9,023
13,524
sly1 said:
I'm not an expert by any means, but this doesn't seem very logical to me. This would mean that SkyBet is constantly pushing punters to bet on the underpriced option.

For example:

- Sky Bet offers attractive odds to scoop up interest

SkyBet offers 3-1 on Lemar going to Spurs.

- Sky Sports tweets odds next to story, as if coincidence & not both produced by same company
- Punters take up bet in volume, pushing odds down

Many punters take up 3-1 for Lemar to go to Spurs. Subsequently, the odds of Lemar to Spurs fall to 1-4, and the odds of Lemar remaining at Monaco go to 3-1.

- Sky Sports shift focus of player move to different club, seeing previous odds drift

Many punters then take up Lemar staying at Monaco at 3-1.

You're then left with a position where a whole load of people are winning at 3-1 no matter what happens.

(Obviously this is a rough and fairly extreme example. Perhaps it does work out more beneficially for SkyBet if there isn't such a big swing in odds)
Click to expand...

If you were being really tinfoil hat you could add that Sky execs then bet on him staying at Monaco and make a fortune when he does indeed stay. And everyone on whatever odds they had loses because Sky knows full well it isn't going to happen

The amount of money they make from this offsets any losses over time, although you'll find genuinely probable moves follow differenf rules
 
D

Deleted member 27855

It's pretty clear that Lemar won't be sold. We definitely need a pacey tricky winger type though. It's the one thing we lack but every great team seems to have. I don't care who we get. Felipe Anderson, Pulisic, Gelson Martins, etc. But if we only have the funds for one big "name" signing this is the position we need it in. If we blow 25 million plus on Barkley or Seri I'll be infuriated.
 
luptic

luptic

Well-Known Member
Jul 21, 2008
2,357
3,066
I think Lemar is going to be this years red herring.
Think about it, some of the signings have been left of field in recent years, no real links nothing then bang, Son, Wimmer, Jansen & Sissoko.
Even Wanyama came as a bit of shock.

Relax over two months to go before the new season starts, but we are in a better position than some in the league.
We are probably wait for the dust to settle from the Pickford type deals.
Those in a need for players will be paying through the nose for them.
 
dagraham

dagraham

Well-Known Member
Sep 20, 2005
19,130
46,118
luptic said:
I think Lemar is going to be this years red herring.
Think about it, some of the signings have been left of field in recent years, no real links nothing then bang, Son, Wimmer, Jansen & Sissoko.
Even Wanyama came as a bit of shock.

Relax over two months to go before the new season starts, but we are in a better position than some in the league.
We are probably wait for the dust to settle from the Pickford type deals.
Those in a need for players will be paying through the nose for them.
Click to expand...

Don't think Wanyama was a shock. Our interest was quite well publicised, even in the previous window.

He just didn't have that long on his contract so we were able to conclude it quite quickly as the fee was always going to be reasonably low.

Sadly, these types of deals are the only ones where we can hope to get things done quickly.
 
viktorviktor

viktorviktor

Well-Known Member
Nov 25, 2014
398
1,827
luptic said:
I think Lemar is going to be this years red herring.
Think about it, some of the signings have been left of field in recent years, no real links nothing then bang, Son, Wimmer, Jansen & Sissoko.
Even Wanyama came as a bit of shock.

Relax over two months to go before the new season starts, but we are in a better position than some in the league.
We are probably wait for the dust to settle from the Pickford type deals.
Those in a need for players will be paying through the nose for them.
Click to expand...

Agree, it smells like the Batshit-saga last year.
 
C

coys200

Well-Known Member
May 22, 2017
8,436
17,403
I think our funds will be quite healthy .wimmer and sissoko look almost certain to leave that's prob £35m at least .? Over walker nkoudou janssen Lamela .Say 2 of those go could another £50m .plus Bentaleb and Njie £25m .Add say £30m in available funds .could have as much as £150m ish to spend .
 
Flashp

Flashp

Well-Known Member
Aug 31, 2012
788
3,294
sly1 said:
I'm not an expert by any means, but this doesn't seem very logical to me. This would mean that SkyBet is constantly pushing punters to bet on the underpriced option.

For example:

- Sky Bet offers attractive odds to scoop up interest

SkyBet offers 3-1 on Lemar going to Spurs.

- Sky Sports tweets odds next to story, as if coincidence & not both produced by same company
- Punters take up bet in volume, pushing odds down

Many punters take up 3-1 for Lemar to go to Spurs. Subsequently, the odds of Lemar to Spurs fall to 1-4, and the odds of Lemar remaining at Monaco go to 3-1.

- Sky Sports shift focus of player move to different club, seeing previous odds drift

Many punters then take up Lemar staying at Monaco at 3-1.

You're then left with a position where a whole load of people are winning at 3-1 no matter what happens.

(Obviously this is a rough and fairly extreme example. Perhaps it does work out more beneficially for SkyBet if there isn't such a big swing in odds)
Click to expand...

You forget that Lemar staying at Monaco isn't the only other option. Lemar going to any other (specific) club are also options.

That said, your point about Sky taking bets and being able to influence betting patterns through their own production of news, is obviously very relevant. Apalling behaviour, but then again, I don't expect much from Sky.
 
YiddoTom90

YiddoTom90

Well-Known Member
Feb 9, 2015
1,456
2,051
If i was lemar i would choose us, i would say that even if i wasnt a fan of us. Poch or wenger to develop you, not a hard choice
 
sloth

sloth

Well-Known Member
Mar 7, 2005
9,018
6,900
Led Revolver said:
Erm.. Hard cash causes fluctuations in the market, hence why prices drift. One of two bets make no difference, multiples bets do. This has been discussed on here not so long ago.

Also, the Sidibe story happened days ago. His price has come down twice (From 3-1, 5-2, now 10/11) since that story broke.
Click to expand...

I imagine these kinds of markets are very low liquidity, less than a £1,000 traded very often. So a single bet of £50 or £100 will move it dramatically. It's all guess work by punters, usually supporters who want it to happen, the bookies don't have a clue. They just make money on the overround which will typically be pretty huge on something like this. The danger for them is insider trading, but low liquidity means small bets and low exposure. The perfect scenario is a bunch of idiot punters seeing a market come in assuming it's significant and piling in at ridiculous odds. An emperor's new clothes type situation.

The moral of the tale. Ignore the bookies where liquidity is low and expertise can logically play little role.
 
KenTHFC

KenTHFC

Professional Lurker
Jan 8, 2015
583
1,582
luptic said:
I think Lemar is going to be this years red herring.
Think about it, some of the signings have been left of field in recent years, no real links nothing then bang, Son, Wimmer, Jansen & Sissoko.
Even Wanyama came as a bit of shock.

Relax over two months to go before the new season starts, but we are in a better position than some in the league.
We are probably wait for the dust to settle from the Pickford type deals.
Those in a need for players will be paying through the nose for them.
Click to expand...
Only ones I'd agree with there are Son, Wanyama and Sissoko's signings, they came out of thin air. There was a lot of smoke around Wimmer and Janssen had many articles written about him.
 
D

Dillspur

Well-Known Member
May 18, 2004
3,750
9,926
I just herd the julian leron (sp) French guy on talksport say we are actually close, then quickly say other big clubs are interested
 
E

eppingyid

Well-Known Member
Nov 5, 2005
192
547
Dillspur said:
I just herd the julian leron (sp) French guy on talksport say we are actually close, then quickly say other big clubs are interested
Click to expand...

Think a few of the Monaco lot will be decided after tonight's game. Hope that's true about Lemar and us.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

THFCSPURS19
Albert Gudmundsson
2 3
Replies
54
Views
21K
Ghost Hardware
Ghost Hardware
S
Thomas Lemar
2 3 4
Replies
72
Views
20K
doctor stefan Freud
doctor stefan Freud
mawspurs
Thomas Lemar: Tottenham offered chance to sign Atletico Madrid outcast on loan
Replies
14
Views
1K
greaves
G
Top