- Jul 22, 2008
- 43,881
- 95,149
It's possibly a bit arbitrary, but for a while now I've been holding back from weighing up our chances of CL qualification (and more recently, the title) until we'd got down to the last ten games.
For me, this has always been what is referred to as 'the run-in'. It's the countdown from 10, the home straight. 10 games and a potential 30 points that will decide our fate.
Of course the EL complicates things a bit (at least two extra games, and potentially another five), but in terms of the league it's simple - 10 cup finals.
We go into those games with the best goal difference in the league, in 2nd place, and just 3 points off the top. 7 points separate us from United in 5th place (in reality, 8 points due to goal difference). CL qualification looks like a very real possibility, and we'd really need to suffer a spectacular loss of form to drop out of the top 4 (with the chasing teams maintaining an uncharacteristically consistent level at the same time). I believe we'll be playing CL football next season.
As for the title - the last round of results simply highlighted how up in the air it is. I can't see anybody going unbeaten in the last 10 games. What I will say is that at this point I'm happy to say that if we play at our best for the majority of our remaining fixtures we have more than just a chance.
We have Dembele back very soon, Vertonghen will be back for the last few crunch games (where his experience will be invaluable), and even N'Jie could prove to be a surprise late contributor. Tiredness is a concern, but psychologically I believe that getting to the last 10 games in this position will give the players a psychological lift as they can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Here's my predictions:
10: Arsenal (home) D
9: Aston Villa (away) W
8: Bournemouth (home) W
7: Liverpool (away) L
6: Man United (home) W
5: Stoke (away) D
4: West Brom (home) W
3: Chelsea (away) L
2: Southampton (home) W
1: Newcastle (away) W
20 points, leaving us on 74 points.
For me, this has always been what is referred to as 'the run-in'. It's the countdown from 10, the home straight. 10 games and a potential 30 points that will decide our fate.
Of course the EL complicates things a bit (at least two extra games, and potentially another five), but in terms of the league it's simple - 10 cup finals.
We go into those games with the best goal difference in the league, in 2nd place, and just 3 points off the top. 7 points separate us from United in 5th place (in reality, 8 points due to goal difference). CL qualification looks like a very real possibility, and we'd really need to suffer a spectacular loss of form to drop out of the top 4 (with the chasing teams maintaining an uncharacteristically consistent level at the same time). I believe we'll be playing CL football next season.
As for the title - the last round of results simply highlighted how up in the air it is. I can't see anybody going unbeaten in the last 10 games. What I will say is that at this point I'm happy to say that if we play at our best for the majority of our remaining fixtures we have more than just a chance.
We have Dembele back very soon, Vertonghen will be back for the last few crunch games (where his experience will be invaluable), and even N'Jie could prove to be a surprise late contributor. Tiredness is a concern, but psychologically I believe that getting to the last 10 games in this position will give the players a psychological lift as they can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Here's my predictions:
10: Arsenal (home) D
9: Aston Villa (away) W
8: Bournemouth (home) W
7: Liverpool (away) L
6: Man United (home) W
5: Stoke (away) D
4: West Brom (home) W
3: Chelsea (away) L
2: Southampton (home) W
1: Newcastle (away) W
20 points, leaving us on 74 points.